Who’s winning the Beverage Tax fight?

Both proponents and opponents of the Cook County beverage tax have been extremely vocal over the past few weeks. custodia samsung s 9 plus originale Those in favor of the tax—especially billionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg—have been flooding the airways with ads warning of the dangers of sweetened beverages. custodia davanti e dietro samsung s8 Opponents—including strongly worded newspaper editorials—have been pointing out the negative economic effects of the tax on consumers and businesses alike. Who’s winning? We Ask America decided to find an answer based on two straight-forward questions asked to more than 1,000 likely voters:

  1. As you may know, the Cook County Board will have the opportunity in October to REPEAL the beverage tax. custodia samsung grand prime bianco Do you think the County Board should KEEP, or REPEAL the Cook County beverage tax?

  2. If your county commissioner voted to KEEP the beverage tax, would you be MORE LIKELY, or LESS LIKELY to support his or her re-election? “

Click HERE to download the poll results.

Findings

  1. Despite millions of dollars in ads justifying the beverage, Cook County voters continue to overwhelmingly favor a repeal of it. While there is no reason to say that people disagree with the health warnings being issued in the ads, it is safe to assume that voters are not persuaded that the tax is a good thing. custodia portafoglio samsung j7 2016 Similar to earlier polls before the onslaught of ads, people want the beverage tax to go away. custodia samsung s9 plus alcantara Period.

  2. This could be THE issue in next year’s County Board Election. The continued strength of disdain over the tax in the wake of an incredible wave of anti-beverage ads is an indication of deeply rooted positions. custodia samsung gt i9060i 2404 Is the Beverage Tax the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back? Perhaps. Voters who got walloped by recent property tax hikes were probably itching to act out, and the Commissioners who used the health argument to vote for it whiffed in their explanation. The beverage tax provides an easy target for organized opponents who will be hurling five-second sound bites that require five-minute responses—never a good thing in politics. Pro-tax commissioners are walking on extremely thin ice that can crack if a quality opponent steps onto the same pond.

  3. If the beverage tax influences higher turnout in the next Primary, pro-tax commissioners will suffer. There is a sizable swing on the re-elect question between one-of-three and three-of-three Democratic voters. Any increase in turnout will be a sizable drag for commissioners who voted for the beverage tax.

  Poll details: Type: Hybrid; automated to landline phones, live operator interviews to cell phones. samsung 7 custodia Responses: 1,056 registered Voters Margin of Error: 3.02% Poll dates: Sept.

Preckwinkle’s Problems

Last week’s Illinois Manufacturers’ Association poll on the Cook County beverage tax indicated high discontent with the one-cent-per-ounce sweetened beverage tax. Does that resentment translate to political problems for the chief advocate for the tax, Board President Toni Preckwinkle? From August 15 through August 16, 2017, We Ask America Polls™ conducted a hybrid (part automated/part live interview) telephone poll measuring Cook County likely voters’ snapshot opinions on the Cook County Board President. custodia galaxy j3 2017 Three questions were asked in a particular order: “In general, do you APPROVE, or DISAPPROVE of the job Cook County President Toni Preckwinkle is doing?” “Do you AGREE, or DISAGREE with the following statement: ‘I will probably vote to re-elect Toni Preckwinkle as County Board President no matter who is running against her.’” “Does that fact that Toni Preckwinkle cast the deciding vote that created the Cook County beverage tax make you MORE LIKELY or LESS LIKELY to vote to re-elect her?” Note: Question 3–pointing out that Preckwinkle cast the deciding vote in the beverage tax–was purposely put at the end of the three questions to avoid any negative effect on the other questions. The matter was addressed in a negative form similar to how potential opponents to Ms Preckwinkle will likely view the issue. samsung custodia s9

DOWNLOAD FULL RESULTS HERE.

Findings

  1. Toni Preckwinkle suffers a significantly lower job-approval rating than Donald Trump: Having only 21 percent of likely voters approving of her general performance is likely to generate serious competition for her next year in her bid for re-election.
  2. Her re-elect numbers are extraordinarily low: The re-elect question referred to the phrase “no matter who runs against her” to provide a clear-cut option. custodia flip per samsung j5 Wording it in that manner helps to determine the strength of Preckwinkle’s core support—those who will vote for her no matter what. Normal re-elect results for incumbents when this type of option is offered is in the high-30s or low-40s percentile. Preckwinkle’s 16 percent is surely going to encourage potential opponents to look closer at a possible run.
  3. Casting the deciding vote on the beverage tax may be Toni Preckwinkle’s Kryptonite. Already weakened by the issue, casting the deciding, tie-breaking vote will be an issue that potential opponents will hammer on repeatedly to great effect. custodia samsung note 8 juventus The 10 percent result may mean that even if Preckwinkle leads a repeal effort, she remains very vulnerable for her initial action.

Notes & Comments

  • There was virtually no difference between the City and suburban areas in the overall approve/disapprove results.
  • Although not a traditionally huge demographic in county elections, nearly 91% of younger likely voters chose the negative option in the re-elect question. Overall, Hispanic voters had the highest negative answer (83%) on the re-elect question. Adding the “deciding vote” fact pushed the “Less Likely to Re-elect” to 98 percent among Hispanics.
  • Men gave a significantly lower approval of Ms Preckwinkle than women (14% vs 25%).

Poll details: Type: Hybrid; automated to landline phones, live operator interviews to cell phones. custodia libro samsung a8 2018 Responses: 902 Likely Voters Margin of Error: 3.27% Poll dates: Aug.

Poll: Health-related ad viewers are MORE likely to oppose the beverage tax

Proponents of the recently enacted Cook County beverage tax have been conducting a local advertising campaign featuring health-related themes. custodia samsung s9 plus colore Reportedly, up to $5 million has been committed to the health-related TV ads alone. samsung custodia s view We were curious of how affective those ads have been thus far. custodia libro galaxy note 8 To determine that, three questions were asked:

  • We’d like to know if you have seen the ads in Cook County that seek to educate people about health issues related to consumption of sugary beverages like juice and soda?
  • Do you feel that Cook County commissioners who voted in favor of the new beverage tax did so primarily because of those kind of health concerns, or some other reason?
  • Do you AGREE or DISAGREE with this statement: “No matter what the reason for passing the beverage tax, I would like to see repealed.”

Findings (1,092 responses):

  • The ads warning people about the risks of consuming sugary beverages have either been widely seen and/or widely reported. A phenomenal 83.7 percent of the people taking the poll were aware of the health-related ads.
  • Few people believe that the Beverage Tax was passed to address those health concerns. Voters remain skeptical that the Cook County Board members who voted for the Beverage Tax did so because of health concerns. A substantial 87.53 percent of those asked chose the generic “other reasons” as the root cause for the vote.
  • The percentage of those who want the Beverage Tax repealed is within the margin of error for previous polls that did not bring up health concerns. A poll that was conducted before the health-related ads commenced (Aug. custodia led samsung note 8 6) resulted in 86.64 percent favoring repeal – less than two percentage points higher than this post-health ads survey.
  • People who have seen the health-related ads are more likely to support repeal. samsung s6 edge custodia While there is no correlation present in this poll suggesting that the ads have had a reverse effect on voters’ attitudes, the difference between those who HAVE seen the ads and those who have NOT seen them is indisputable. custodia samsung s7 edge fortnite (download poll to see results).

Click HERE to download poll results.

Notes & Comments

  • There continues to be no statistical difference between the City and suburban areas in any of these areas questioned.
  • Not a single poll participant in the youngest voting category (18-24) believes County Commissioners who voted for the tax did so to combat the health problems associated with sugar consumption.

Poll details: Type: Hybrid; automated to landline phones, live operator interviews to cell phones. custodia tablet samsung a6 10 1 Responses: 1,092 Registered Voters Margin of Error: 3.06% Poll date: Sept.

Cook County Beverage Tax Poll

From August 3 through August 6, 2017, We Ask America Polls™ conducted a hybrid (part automated/part live interview) telephone poll measuring Cook County likely voters’ views on the recently implemented beverage tax on sweetened products. custodia samsung s6 originale The primary question was this: “As you may know, a new tax has taken effect in Cook County that places a one-cent-per ounce- tax on most sweetened beverages. We’d like to know if you APPROVE, or DISAPPROVE of the new Cook County beverage tax that places a new tax on most sweetened beverages.” The poll also asked voters’ opinions on the main motive for the tax increase (health vs. increased spending) and their opinions on re-electing officials who voted for the new tax. Click HERE to download the results. custodia samsung j3 2016 roma

Findings

  1. The new beverage tax received the highest disapproval percentage of any similar tax we’ve ever polled: Nearly 87 percent disapproved of the tax, 12 percent approved of it and only one percent had no opinion.
  2. Very few believe the “health” argument for passing the tax: Only 8 percent believe that the tax was implemented to improve the health and well-being of Cook Co. residents.
  3. Commissioners who voted for the tax will have a tougher time convincing voters to re-elect them next year. Across all demographics, pro-beverage tax commissioners face potential problems if challengers use this issue against them in next fall’s elections. samsung s9 plus custodia indistruttibile While nearly 10 percent of voters said they would be MORE likely to vote for a pro-beverage tax commissioner, close to 83 percent stated they would be LESS likely to re-elect a county commissioner who supported the measure. Potential political challengers will certainly use this issue that scores points on Election Day.

Notes & Comments

  • While it may be argued that this poll was taken soon after consumers first experienced so-called Sticker Shock from the new beverage tax and therefore doesn’t necessary reflect how they’ll feel about it next year, the extraordinarily high rate of disapproval (nearly 87 percent) indicates that this tax is not going to be merely shrugged off in the long run. Very high response percentages often are linked to a combination of intellectual and emotional factors—and that combination can affect elections.
  • The Ethnic Origin Demographic breakouts indicate that the tax is LEAST popular among African American and Hispanic voters. custodia a portafoglio samsung s8 plus The group with the highest approval rate for the tax are Asians (17 percent).
  • There are statistically no differences between City and Suburban Cook residents in the approve/disapprove answers, and little difference in the other questions.

Poll details: Type: Hybrid; automated to landline phones, live operator interviews to cell phones. custodia originale samsung s9 Responses: 1,119 Likely Voters Margin of Error: 3.0% Poll dates: Aug.

Not persuaded

With a reported multi-million dollar ad campaign by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg designed to justify the Cook County sweetened beverage tax, surely a swing in public opinion must be the outcome…right? Not so much. This weekend, We Ask America Polls™ essentially re-ran an early August poll where the main question was: “As you may know, a new tax has taken effect in Cook County that places a one-cent-per ounce- tax on most sweetened beverages. We’d like to know if you APPROVE, or DISAPPROVE of the new Cook County beverage tax that places a new tax on most sweetened beverages.” The poll also asked voters’ opinions on the main motive for the tax increase (health vs. samsung j 7 2017 custodia increased spending) and their opinions on re-electing officials who voted for the new tax. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD POLL RESULTS

Findings

1. Despite millions of dollars in TV ads justifying the beverage tax hitting the Chicago DMA, our Approve/Disapprove outcome was a virtual tie with the findings of the initial poll. In early August, we reported 86.64% of voters opposed the tax. On October 7, those opposed equaled 85.76%—well within the margin of error of the first poll. 2. Also within the previous poll’s margin of error were the percentage of voters who didn’t buy that commissioners who passed the beverage tax did so for health reasons. In early August, 80.33% believed that commissioners primarily passed the beverage tax to raise funds—not for health reasons. samsung s8 custodia silicone Two months later, 76.98% said the same—a movement of only three percentage points. It’s difficult to say that such a small drop—one basically within the margin of error—shows any statistically change. custodia tablet samsung t555 That is true especially in light of the continuing opposition to the tax. samsung galaxy grand neo custodia 3. custodia s 7 edge samsung Voters are still steaming about the passage of the tax, and may take it out at the ballot box if reasonable alternative candidates challenge those who originally voted for the tax. custodia samsung galaxy a 3 2017 Nearly 79% of voters say they will be less likely to vote for a Cook County Commissioner who supported the beverage tax. That number—which is near the margin of error of the original poll—remains extraordinarily strong and the intensity hasn’t changed significantly. Even if the tax is repealed, the anger over its passage may hang over the next election. COMPARISON: AUG. VS OCT.

DATEBev. Tax DisapprovalThink tax was passsed for $Less likely-elect pro-tax commissioner
8/686.64%80.33%82.56%
10/785.76%76.98%78.73%
  Poll details: Type: Hybrid; automated to landline phones, live operator interviews to cell phones. Responses: 1,050 registered Voters Margin of Error: 3.02% Poll dates: Oct.

IL Turnout Tool

With pollsters split on the Illinois governor’s race, it’s important to remember how regional turnout can move election results fairly dramatically in the Land of Lincoln. custodia a libro samsung a 5 2017 To illustrate that point, we developed an online turnout effect calculator to allow those who possess both political tendencies and way too much time on their hands a chance to play the with different turnout scenarios. The calculator splits Illinois into four regions (Chicago, Suburban Cook Co., Collar Counties and Downstate) and we preset the turnout in each of those areas to match the 2010 midterm turnout. Of course, you can change those anyway you want. We’ve also populated the vote splits with our latest poll results, but you can wipe that out and put your own numbers. custodia samsung tab a 2017 After you twiddle the numbers, click the submit button to see what it does to the final results. custodia galaxy s7 portafoglio calcio The whole thing is designed to fit on an iPad, and we included a RESET button to put all the numbers back to presets. custodia samsung j5 2017 oro With the Illinois governor’s race as tight as it seems, this shows how tweaking a few numbers effects the final result. galaxy j3 2017 custodia Instructions are on the page (just click on the INSTRUCTIONS button).

Von Rauner Express

Here in Illinois there’s been a lot of conjecture the last few days about who is truly the best Republican candidate to challenge the Bruce Rauner Juggernaut. Rauner–a mega-succesful businessman with deep pockets and a campaign staff that, after a bit of a rocky start, seems to firing on all cylinders–has become the pin cushion for the trailing contenders. In addition, union leaders–a main recipient of many of Rauner’s sharp-tongued barbs–have pumped some serious money into an effort to either derail the Von Rauner Express or weaken him for the General Election this fall. Particularly biting is their ad painting an horrific picture of Rauner’s firm’s involvement in nursing home abuses. (Rauner has a good response ad addressing those accusations). custodia a libro samsung galaxy s9 Naturally, the other GOP gubernatorial candidates are hoping that the slings and arrows aimed at Mr. Rauner will finally derail his steady rise in the polls (see chart, below) and give their bare-cupboard campaigns a boost. custodia samsung a5 2016 libro con pennino Since State Treasurer Dan Rutherfords hopes have withered on a scandal vine, the other two are elbowing each other to claim to be the top contender. Last week, State Senator Kirk Dillard called on the election gods to smite Bloomington State Senator Bill Brady and Rutherford to allow him to have free rein against Rauner. samsung j1 custodia While that demand left a lot of pundits scratching their itchy heads, it succeeded in getting Dillard some earned media–which may have been the plan all along. custodia portafoglio samsung galaxy j5 2017 And Dillard has enjoyed a nice boost to his campaign from the endorsement of the powerful Illinois Education Association. Now, Bill Brady’s minions have been sidling up to reporters and others promising poll results that prove Brady is everyone’s second choice. If you fail to see the logic of bragging about being the Chosen One…er…Two, then join the club. There’s no Silver Medal in politics. custodia galaxy tab e 9 6 samsung Still, both Dillard and Brady are counting on an alleged any-minute-now free fall by Rauner. custodia galaxy s4 So, tonight we asked 1,178 likely Illinois Republicans this simple question: If the Republican Primary Election were held today, for whom would you vote? Here are the results: Poll type: Automated - Date: 2/25/2014 - Participants: 1,178 Likely GOP Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

 Bill BradyKirk DillardBruce RaunerDan RutherfordUndecided
ALL12.80%17.25%35.60%7.48%26.88%
BY GENDER***********************************
Women14.25%14.78%29.43%8.24%33.30%
Men11.31%19.77%41.88%6.70%20.33%
BY AGE***********************************
18-2421.49%5.00%27.54%17.68%28.29%
25-3420.98%19.05%38.75%15.49%5.73%
35-4411.97%22.79%29.07%10.34%25.83%
45-5410.18%15.32%32.54%7.45%34.50%
55-6414.17%15.48%36.99%8.06%25.30%
65+12.54%18.24%36.98%6.37%25.86%
BY LOCATION***********************************
Chicago15.10%10.47%36.32%7.79%30.32%
Sub. Cook9.78%16.55%45.47%1.74%26.45%
Collars9.14%15.39%42.89%5.04%27.55%
Downstate15.79%19.18%27.98%10.74%26.31%
And here’s our tracking graph starting last May: GOP_gov_022514 Have millions of dollars in negative ads taken a bite out of Rauner? Yeah, but not much (see chart). And Rauner’s bank account remains healthy and open. custodia spigen samsung s9 There isn’t a whole lot of daylight for the others to grab.

IL Congressional

We Ask America Polls™ did a round of internal polls in targeted Illinois congressional races last night. This morning, it was decided to make them public since no group, campaign or individual requested or paid for them. custodia per galaxy tab e 9 6 spigen For now, we’ll show you the toplines with brief comments. custodia silicone galaxy samsung 9 Check back later and we’ll offer you some crosstabs. Here we go: Illinois 10:

Brad Schneider (D)45.09%
Bob Dold (R)47.16%
Undecided7.75%
Our numbers in the hotly contested 10th District race illustrate why it’s considered one of the nation’s most competitive. This week’s report of a large TV buy for Dold from former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg could tip the scales, but this one should still be considered a toss-up. Illinois 11:
Bill Foster (D)51.64%
Darlene Senger (R)40.32%
Undecided8.04%
Incumbent Bill Foster has taken a decided double-digit lead on Darlene Senger in the redrawn 11th District. custodia batteria galaxy s9 plus Foster’s background as a scientist and wealthy entrepreneur has made it difficult for Republicans to peg him as anti-business. custodia per galaxy j5 2016 Unless the GOP can prove he’s the one responsible for all of Jay Cutler’s interceptions, Foster should be safe on Election Day. custodia galaxy s3 neo originale Illinois 12:
Bill Enyart (D)41.83%
Mike Bost (R)43.50%
Paula Bradshaw (G)5.79%
Undecided8.89%
Along with IL-10, the 12th District falls within the margin of error and is really anyone’s race. State Rep. Mike Bost holds a slight lead in this Democratic leaning district, despite efforts from the left to portray him as a loose-cannon. Illinois 13:
Rodney Davis (R)52.83%
Ann Callis (D)35.63%
Undecided11.53%
In what was once thought to be a swing district under the new map, House freshman Rodney Davis appears in good shape to hold on to his slightly Democratic central Illinois District. custodia galaxy tab 3 Davis’ lead may inch towards single digits on November 4th with a big Dem GOTV effort, but he should be safe. Illinois 17:
Cheri Bustos (D)54.98%
Bobby Schilling (R)38.94%
Undecided6.08%
In a rematch from 2012, many have felt from the beginning that incumbent Cheri Bustos would be tough to beat.

IL & MI

[box type=”info”] We continue our polls in Midwestern states today with our home base—Illinois—and races in Michigan. [/box]

Illinois: Everything old is new again

Governor Pat Quinn has made a career out of proving those who dismiss his chances in political races wrong. Earlier this year, most pundits outside of Illinois had Quinn high on their likely-to-be-dumped lists. custodia s2 samsung The reasons were logical: the Illinosi lags behind other Midwestern neighbors in economic recovery, has the highest pension debt in the nation and continues to lose jobs to greener economic pastures. Enter Republican Bruce Rauner, a highly successful investment professional with deep pockets and an in-your-face promise to “shake up Springfield.” Conventional wisdom dictated that Quinn was in serious trouble. But Rauner had a much tougher Primary than expected thanks partially to a successful campaign by teachers unions to encourage crossover votes, and Quinn has since seemed to hit his stride earlier than usual in the race. Many assumed that Rauner would launch a shock-and-awe level attack that would bury Quinn, but his campaign seems has yet to overwhelm observers or voters. And Rauner’s purposeful penchant for avoiding details has left more questions than answers. Rauner had a 10-12 point lead a few weeks ago. With Quinn hitting his stride and Rauner stumbling a bit, what do the voters think? We asked more than 1,400 likely voters on September 18-19 the following question: If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner or Libertarian Chad Grimm? Poll type: Automated - Date: 9/18-19/2014 - Participants: 1,418 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

 Pat QuinnBruce RaunerChad GrimmUndecided
ALL VOTERS41%44%6%9%
BY GENDER
Women44%42%4%9%
Men36%47%8%9%
BY PARTY
Republican11%79%5%5%
Democrat74%14%3%10%
Independent29%48%10%12%
After holding a double-digit lead a few weeks ago, the gap narrows…just as it did four years ago when Republican State Senator Bill Brady led Quinn by 10 points a month out from the election only to lose a relatively close race. Despite running a state that’s home to massive debt, terribly low job creation rates, and a pension system that has almost single-handedly lead to a credit rating close to “non-investment grade”, Pat Quinn has pulled within the margin of error. There is time left, and Bruce Rauner has the wherewithal to unleash the hounds with a wave of his checkbook, but the ticking of the clock is growing louder every day. samsung s8 custodia slim

Michigan: Who goes first?

Who’s in more trouble, Brady Hoke or Governor Rick Snyder? At least Governor Snyder didn’t lose to Notre Dame on national television…or get humiliated by a team nicknamed The Utes. As to which individual gets to keep his job in 2015, that one’s still TBD. Republican Governor Rick Snyder has found himself in the middle of a re-election dogfight with Democratic former Congressman Mark Schauer. Schauer, who’s also a former state lawmaker in Michigan, is a seasoned campaign veteran who casts himself as a pro-middle class candidate. It should be noted that no first-term Michigan governor has lost a re-election bid in more than 100 years. Snyder, who some say waited too late in the game to hit the airwaves with his pro-business campaign messaging, seems to be banking on the fact that Mr. custodia tablet samsung e silicone Schauer will run out of funds before this thing is all said and done. But blood in the water usually leads to increased contributions, so that may be a false hope. To this point, all we know is this one is close…real close: Poll type: Automated - Date: 9/18-19/2014 - Participants: 1,182 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

 Rick SnyderMark SchauerMary BuzumaMark McFarlinPaul HomeniukUndecided
ALL VOTERS43%43%2%1%1%10%
BY GENDER
Women40%44%2%1%0%13%
Men48%41%2%1%1%6%
BY PARTY
Republicans86%8%2%0%0%3%
Democrats6%82%1%0%0%10%
Independents46%34%4%2%1%13%
Michigan Senate In the same poll as above, we asked Michigan voters their views on the race for U.S. Senate. Senate forecasts small and large have given the GOP an edge heading into this November’s election. The mildly blue state of Michigan may just buck that trend. custodia samsung galaxy young In the race for an open seat, Democratic candidate Congressman Gary Peters has held a consistent lead over Republican candidate Terri Lynn Land since April. custodia tastiera samsung s2 Despite being a GOP stalwart throughout most of the 20th century, Michigan has been reliably Democratic since 1992, and all things considered, it seems that trend will continue.

A steep climb

The ballyhooed union crossover vote in Illinois’ Republican Primary is going to find a steep climb in tomorrow’s Primary Election according to our latest tracking poll. custodia samsung s8 led Last night, we ran our usual automated tracker where we asked likely Republican voters to verify their intention to vote in the Primary following by their choice for governor. Here are those results: Poll type: Automated - Date: 3/16/2014 - Participants: 1,126 Likely GOP Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

Bill Brady19.35%
Kirk Dillard27.36%
Bruce Rauner44.24%
Dan Rutherford9.04%
Frankly, no big surprise in these numbers. Bruce Rauner has been maintaining a sizable lead despite an onslaught of negative ads against him. custodia galaxy note 3 Kirk Dillard’s numbers continue to improve, and the vaunted crossover vote looms. But let’s look at just how much of a challenge Dillard has to catch up. galaxy note 4 custodia The following chart shows results based on both 750,000 and 800,000 voters turnout models. custodia samsung s8 plus 360 gradi It also shows how many crossover votes it would take to catch up.
DILLARD'S DILEMMA  
GOP turnout:750,000800,000
To catch Rauner:126,600135,040
That many votes represents a whole lotta love the unions have to generate for their crossover effort. Nothing of this scope has ever been accomplished in Illinois. custodia silicone per samsung j3 2016 Still, there may be enough crossover to move numbers tomorrow. custodia samsung s7 edge torro But a few won’t be enough.