Illinois Senate Re-visted Sep16

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Illinois Senate Re-visted

“When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I’ve never tried before.” – Mae West

The Illinois Senate race features two damaged mainstream candidates and two others who may greatly influence the final outcome. Republican Mark Kirk (left in above photo) remains in simmering water over fudging a perfectly respectable military record, while Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (right) lugs around a very questionable financial background based on  activities at a family-owned bank. And while the Green Party’s LeAlan Jones and Libertarian Mike Labno offer alternative choices, neither have the resources or personal wherewithal to do much more than serve as spoilers for the mainstream candidates.

We polled the Illinois Senate race on September 13 to see which way the voters are leaning in the choice between two candidates with significant personal problems. Here are the results:

Illinois Senate

Type of Poll: Automated
Sample: 1,379 Likely voters
Date of Poll: 9/13/2010
Margin of Error: ±2.64%
 
TOTAL
Chicago
Sub. Cook
Collar
Downstate
CHOICE FOR SENATE
Mark Kirk (R)38.65%17.90%36.39%48.89%45.54%
Alexi Giannoulias (D)36.32%56.82%37.07%32.70%25.54%
LeAlan Jones (G)4.14%4.26%4.08%4.13%4.10%
Mike Labno (L)2.11%0.85%2.38%1.90%2.89%
Uncertain18.78%20.17%20.07%12.38%21.93%

We’ve included a regional breakdown in this poll to see where each candidate’s support is based (poll responses from each region closely matched the average turnout over the last few elections–Chicago: 21% – Suburban Cook: 21% – Collar Counties: 25% – Downstate: 33%). Giannoulias is pounding Kirk in Chicago (no surprise), but not as strongly as he could. While Kirk continues to do well downstate, the battleground here will probably end up being in all-important Suburban Cook County.

Let’s look at the  party affiliation crosstabs to ascertain how the Green Party and Libertarian candidates are affecting the outcome:

 
TOTAL
GOP
DEM
IND
CHOICE FOR SENATE
Mark Kirk (R)38.65%81.79%8.50%39.57%
Alexi Giannoulias (D)36.32%5.75%70.25%30.70%
LeAlan Jones (G)4.14%0.64%2.91%6.24%
Mike Labno (L)2.11%1.28%0.67%3.60%
Uncertain18.78%10.54%17.67%19.90%

If this election remains tight, LeAlan Jones (G) and Mike Labno (L) will have a true impact on the decision. The Illinois Green Party remains small, but very active in Illinois, and their current candidate for governor, Rich Whitney, scored 10.36 percent of the vote in the previous election.

We’ll be watching this one closely.

NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America. The information has not been shared with any candidate or campaign.
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