Wisconsin 7 re-visited

In our Home Stretch Series, we’re going to revisit a few races in which subscribers have requested another peek. In August, we polled Wisconsin’s 7th District (HERE) where two quality candidates are vying to replace the venerable Congressman David Obey (D). Democrat Julie Lassa is a State Senator with good business credentials running in a district that hasn’t sent a Republican to Congress since Melvin Laird served the district in 1969. But like other mostly white, blue-collar districts in the Midwest, Wisconsin 7 voters seem restless, and Republican challenger Sean Duffy continues on his quest to break the Democrats’ stronghold in the North Woods. Duffy is a District Attorney from Ashland and appeared on MTV’s The Real World: Boston before he went to law school.

The candidates have differing views on economic recovery (click HERE for a good one-page overview of the race), but this district didn’t have a warm, fuzzy reaction to health-care reform (HERE), and Lassa supports those reforms with added emphasis on Medicare funding. While Wisconsin 7 hasn’t sent a Republican to Congress the past 40 years, many consider the district to lean only slightly Democrat (the poll we conducted had a 29/32/39 – GOP/Democrat/Independent split among participants when asked to describe their political party affiliation). Here are the results:

Wisconsin 7

Type of Poll: Automated
Sample: 1,150 registered voters
Date of Poll: 10/18/2010
Margin of Error: ±2.89%
Julie Lassa (D)38.61%9.61%74.80%29.95%
Sean Duffy (R)46.00%80.48%11.53%49.10%

Most pundits are calling this race a toss up due to lots of factors, and we do not disagree with that assessment. But Sean Duffy is once again proving to be a strong favorite with Independents, and Ms Lassa has her work cut out for her in the final two weeks. It will be interesting to see if the progressive Democrat history of WI-7 will prevail in the end.

NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America. The information has not been shared with any candidate or campaign.

We’re baaack

NOTE: Thanks to all of you who pointed out the typo in the poll table, below. That’s been corrected.

After a while away taking care of business, We Ask America returns with our Home Stretch Series with polls in Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and few others that pique our interest. Let’s begin in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District.

IL-CD 10 is the home base for Republican Mark Kirk–now running for U.S. Senate against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, the Green Party’s LeAlan Jones and Libertarian Mike Labno. The district leans slightly Republican (moderate Republicans as well) and has been operating a bit under the radar against some higher profile local races. No more.

Democrat Dan Seals and Republican Robert Dold are both high-quality candidates vying to replace Kirk. This is Seals’ third time running for the office, while Dold is a newcomer. Frankly, we weren’t planning on polling this one at all.  Conventional wisdom gave Seals a solid name-recognition and political-experience advantage. But the GOP tide keeps rising in the Heartland, and Dold’s fund-raising numbers yesterday (he’s raised $800K+ this quarter and has a cool million in the bank) could mean that he’s peaking at exactly the right moment–so we moved it up the food chain. Here are the results:

Illinois 10

Type of Poll: Automated
Sample: 1,148 Likely voters
Date of Poll: 10/15/2010
Margin of Error: ±2.89%
Robert Dold (R)50.26%86.22%12.08%50.50%
Dan Seals (D)39.02%5.87%82.55%37.75%

NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America. The information has not been shared with any candidate or campaign.