Iowa: Cain/Newt

GOP presidential hopeful Herman Cain certainly has had better weeks.  Just as he gained traction and broke through the Republican candidate clutter, news surfaced of a decade-old sexual harassment problem. While we still don’t know the details, Cain and his campaign staff flubbed their response badly by coming up with dizzying array of replies. Yet, Cain remains strong in national polls–perhaps an indication of the disdain many in the Right have for the national media and they way the story seemed to ooze out from another campaign, not the alleged victims.

With Iowa’s caucuses looming ever closer, we thought this would be a good time to go back into the Heartland to see if those clear-eyed, corn-fed Iowa voters reflect the national trend to embrace Cain while the facts of the accusations remain just out of reach. So, we asked 864 Iowans who told us they planned to participate in a GOP caucus this simple question:

If your Republican caucus were held today, for whom would you vote?

Here are the responses:

Iowa: GOP Presidential

 BachmannCainGingrichHuntsmanPaulPerryRomneySantorumUncertain
ALL VOTERS11%22%18%2%11%4%15%3%14%
GENDER
Female12%17%12%3%10%5%19%4%18%
Male10%28%24%2%12%3%11%2%9%
AGE BRACKET
18-2441%10%7%3%10%0%14%10%3%
25-3425%17%8%0%21%8%21%0%0%
35-4418%27%9%0%9%0%21%0%15%
45-544%27%18%4%15%3%6%4%19%
55-643%25%27%1%11%2%15%2%12%
65+8%21%19%3%9%6%18%2%14%

Iowa Republicans, like the rest of the nation, seem to be standing by Cain…at least until more facts come out. We found it interesting, though, that Newt Gingrich continues to claw his way up through the pack to the point where he is now just behind frontrunner Cain. Gingrich, whose intellect is just as impressive as his ability to make you forget about it when he spews incredibly wild statements, has been methodically rising up the ranks the last few weeks by staying on message and drafting behind the frontrunner’s bumpy ride. And Mitt Romney–the candidate pundits most often mention as the ultimate winner–just can’t seem to break through the logjam.

If Cain’s problems continue to grow, we may see Gingrich surge ahead here to take the lead. But given Newt’s penchant for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, could Iowa finally give Romney the boost he’s needs to make the pundits’ consensus winner land on top?

There’s LOTS of time left here, and the jockeys are just now going to the whip. We think the smart move here is to expect the unexpected.

Type of Poll: Automated
Date of Poll: 11/6/2011
Participants: 864 GOP voters
Margin of Error: ± 3.33%

———————————————————————

NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

Share