Cain Train Offload Dec06

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Cain Train Offload

As the weight of accusations of harassment and infidelity (and/or serving as a human ATM for female friends) piled up for Herman Cain, his decision to pull the plug on his presidential campaign was no surprise. But what would it mean for the field of GOP hopefuls in Iowa?

Not that much, as it turns out.

We asked 970 Iowa Republicans who said they would participate in the January 3rd Caucus who they backed as part of our ongoing tracking in the Hawkeye state. Here’s what they said:

 
Bachmann
Gingrich
Huntsman
Paul
Perry
Romney
Santorum
Uncertain
ALL VOTERS13%30%3%14%7%16%4%12%
GENDER
Female14%27%3%14%6%18%5%14%
Male12%33%4%15%7%16%3%9%
AGE BRACKET
18-2440%16%4%17%4%4%0%4%
25-3431%21%8%13%5%8%3%5%
35-4410%29%5%6%0%19%0%13%
45-548%28%2%18%3%8%8%10%
55-6416%38%3%8%4%14%5%14%
65+8%33%2%8%9%16%4%15%
Type of Poll: Automated
Date of Poll: 12/5/2011
Participants: 970 GOP voters
Margin of Error: ± 3.15%

 

And here’s a comparison of all the recent polls we’ve done in Iowa:

Candidate
Aug. 16*
Nov. 6
Nov. 28
Dec. 5
Michelle Bachmann17%11%13%13%
Herman Cain5%22%7%N/A
Newt Gingrich5%18%29%30%
Jon Huntsman1%2%4%3%
Ron Paul8%11%11%14%
Rick Perry29%4%5%7%
Mitt Romney15%15%13%16%
Rick Santorum4%3%5%4%
Uncertain9%14%13%12%

*Note: the August 16 Iowa poll included 7% for Sarah Palin while she was still rumored to be in the running. You can view our previous posts on Iowa here, here and here.

Whether or not Newt Gingrich will maintain his lead or–as conventional beltway wisdom whispers–melt in the bright, hot lights of being the frontrunner, only time will tell. In the meantime, bridesmaid Mitt Romney must be wondering when the bells will ring for him.

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