Florida Revisted

In our first Florida poll five short days ago we were surprised to report that Mitt Romney had regained the lead. We shouldn’t have been surprised, because Mitt Romney is now not only leading, he may win a majority of votes in the Sunshine State GOP Primary.

Here are our latest results both with the normal “undecided” option plus a projection without undecideds:

Type: Automated - Date: 1/29//2012 - Participants: 1,188 Likely voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.84%
Results with Undecideds
Gingrich25%
Romney44%
Santorum10%
Paul10%
Undecided11%
Without Undecideds
Gingrich28%
Romney50%
Santorum12%
Paul11%

The snowbird-influenced, somewhat less conservative voter base of Florida is forcing the pendulum to swing back into Romney’s arena, but as Joe Scarborough wrote in an excellent Politico.com article about Gingrich…

A Gingrich campaign is always a high wire act without the net and sometimes, the main actor in this manic routine actually makes it to the other side.  Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/72084_Page3.html#ixzz1kuEpyu5T

Gingrich’s benefactors have deep pockets and are single-minded. Newt’s their guy and they will undoubtedly write enough checks to keep him in the game and area TV stations fat and happy. And the Newtonian Brigade will continue to fantasize about the prospect of Gingrich debating President Obama should he find a way to regain his bearings.

Then again, a big win by Romney in Florida will undoubtedly help restore his previous aura of being the inevitable winner (60% in Florida predict that)–unless more conservative voters in upcoming primaries slingshot Newt back in the lead.

We’re getting whiplash…and this roller coaster ride isn’t over yet.

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