Illinois 16 Feb21

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Illinois 16

We’ve had a number of requests for primary polls in some key congressional districts across the nation, and we kick off a brief series of these with a look into the Republican race in Illinois 16. CD16 was carved into a GOP-heavy district that pits longtime Congressman Don Manzullo against one-term wunderkind Adam Kinzinger. The new district cobbles together parts of Manzullo’s current 16th District, a portion of Kinzingers’ 11th and some new turf for both.

Kinzinger handily beat Blue Dog Democrat incumbent Debbie Halvorson in 2010 in a conservative blue-collar district after Halvorson voted in lockstep with her party’s agenda. True, 2010 was a good year for Republican in most places, but Kinzinger impressed many with his work ethic and Boy Scout image that has held up to scrutiny.

Manzullo first won office in 1992 by defeating one-term Democrat John Cox. He has been reelected seven more times, all by easy margins in this heavily Republican former district. Redistricting forced the perennial Congressman head-to-head with the upstart Kinzinger. Rumors swirled early that Manzullo was considering retirement due to family health concerns, but he eventually announced he’d run again in the newly redesigned district. Kinzinger–looking for a home since his district was carved up–set his sites on the 16th and hasn’t stopped campaigning since.

Most agree that whoever wins this primary will ease through the General Election, so we asked 1,395 likely Republican voters in Illinois 16 how they plan to vote. Here’s what they said:

Type: Automated - Date: 2/19-20//2012 - Participants: 1,395 Likely GOP voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.62%
 
Kinzinger
Manzullo
Undecided
ALL VOTERS47%34%19%
By GENDER
Female45%35%21%
Male49%34%16%
By AGE BRACKET
18-2443%43%14%
25-3460%29%11%
35-4439%37%24%
45-5451%25%24%
55-6448%35%16%
65+44%38%18%

A deeper look into where the responses to this poll came from reveals that Manzullo continues to lead comfortably in the areas he represented prior to the re-map, while young Adam Kinzinger is cleaning up in both his former area and the areas that are new to both candidates. As we always like to point out: a single poll in a given district should never be taken as a prediction of the inevitable. But the internal numbers–especially WHERE the responses came from–point to Kinzinger as the clear leader for now.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

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