Bellwether?

When it became clear Tuesday evening that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker would survive the recall process against challenger Tom Barrett, cable network talking head turned to the key question for many politically minded Americans: what will Wisconsin’s affirmation of Walker mean to the presidential race this fall? Some pundits immediately turned to exit poll results from that day showing that President Obama had nine-point lead over challenger Mitt Romney. But those exit polls were lousy (yeah…we weren’t so great either) and indicated a too-close-to-call election result that night. Oops.

So, once again, we ventured into the Dairy State to ask the vibrant and unpredictable electorate this question: If the election for President were held today, for whom would you vote?

Here’s what they said:

Poll type:: Automated Date: 6/6/2012 - Participants: 1,270 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: Ā± 2.75%
 OBAMAROMNEYUNDECIDED
ALL VOTERS48%43%9%
WOMEN ONLY54%37%9%
MEN ONLY42%49%9%
DEMOCRATS ONLY91%4%5%
REPUBLICANS ONLY11%85%4%
INDEPENDENTS ONLY40%42%18%

As we’ve seen elsewhere, President Obama is twice as likely to receiveĀ  support from Republicans (11%) than Romney is from Democrats (4%), and Independent voters are evenly split. Note that when we asked political party affiliation, this sample had 37% Democrats, 33% Republicans and 30% Independents. We also note with interest the gender gap between the two candidates…a result that is echoed throughout our recent privately conducted polls elsewhere in the nation.

Clearly, Walker’s success will keep Wisconsin on the list of possible bellwether states–something that many considered unlikely a few months ago. And if these numbers hold up, there will undoubtedly be a trove of Obama voters who also supported Gov. Walker in his recall election.

It’s too early to tell if Wisconsin is turning a little redder or not. But it sure isn’t getting duller.

 

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