IA & MI

We kick off our “Big Ten” series with polls in Iowa and Michigan. Both states were once viewed as likely to vote in favor of re-electing President Obama, but recent economic and political circumstances have tightened up things among the electorate.

As in all of the series of state’s we’re polling by automated means, after qualifying each individual in regards to ability (registered) and intention to vote this fall, we asked the following straightforward question:

If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?

The options of Obama or Romney were randomized followed by the “undecided” choice. We then followed up with our demographic questions that include gender, age, and political party I.D. Weighting occurred if any of those demographic questions fell out of the norm.

In Iowa: President Obama is holding a small lead:

Poll type:: Automated Date: 6/18/2012 - Participants: 1,086 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%
 
Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
Undecided
ALL VOTERS45%44%11%
Female48%40%12%
Male42%48%10%

While in Michigan, our poll confirms what others are seeing: a very close race with Romney ahead by less than the margin of error:

Poll type:: Automated Date: 6/18/2012 - Participants: 1,010 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%
 
Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
Undecided
ALL VOTERS43%45%12%
Female45%42%13%
Male41%48%11%

These early polls must be viewed as snapshots during a long and tedious roller-coaster campaign. The latest economic hiccups fueled by Euro worries aren’t helping the president, who has also chosen the early goings to announce his positions on same-sex marriage and immigration. In the meantime, Gov. Romney–unfettered from fellow GOP challengers nipping at his ankles–has changed whisper campaigns from “Obama could lose” to “Romney could win.”

The Michigan results are particularly intriguing. While Romney can lay claim to Michigan roots, it didn’t seem to help him greatly in the Primary, and President Obama’s economic recovery program that bailed out the auto industry should arguably give him a leg up here. The fact this this and other polls have the race so close at this point doesn’t bode well for conventional wisdom in the Wolverine State.

Iowa–the state that helped launched President Obama’s political rocket ship–may be reacting to the loss of ethanol subsidies and the president’s stance on same-sex marriage (remember that Iowans voted three judges out of office after they helped legalize gay marriage).

While it certainly is too early to declare a new election paradigm, pundits who say this election is going to be among the closest in history may just turn out to be right.

Share