VA & CO

We Ask America picks up its Big Ten presidential series with the two bookends of the mix: Virginia and Colorado.

VIRGINIA:

Virginia also has a barn-burner race for the U.S. Senate (that may be greatly influence by the presidential election) pitting Republican former Senator George Allen against Democrat National Committee Chair and former Governor Tim Kaine. Allen lost in 2006 to a relatively unknown Democrat, Jim Webb, after Allen became a YouTube star from a video where he uttered a term used as a racial slur (Allen denied he meant the negative connotation). While many lay blame on that video for his loss, he was actually losing ground Webb before it surfaced. Now, after a single term, Webb is stepping down and Allen is trying to earn his way back into the world’s most exclusive club.

As in all of the series of states we’re polling by automated means, after qualifying each individual in regards to ability (registered) and intention to vote this fall, we asked the following straightforward questions:

If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?
And in Virginia:  If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, for whom would you vote?

The options were randomized followed by the “undecided” choice. We then followed up with our demographic questions that include gender, age, and political party I.D. Weighting occurred if any of those demographic questions fell out of the norm. Here are our results:

Poll type:: Automated Date: 6/25/2012 - Participants: 1,106 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.95%
FOR PRESIDENT
PERCENT
Barack Obama43.3%
Mitt Romney48.0%
Undecided8.7%
FOR U.S. SENATE
George Allen44.0%
Tim Kaine35.0%
Undecided21.0%

While Mitt Romney is enjoying a close lead, George Allen may have found his bearings in Old Dominion. The recent shift toward Romney we’re seeing in Virginia and a number of other key states this year will keep us watching closely to see if it sticks.

COLORADO:

With a churning but–at times– fairly even split of Democrats, Republicans and free-wheeling Independents, Colorado is as politically intriguing as any state in the nation. In a state where military retirees rub elbows with laid back ski bums, a majority of Coloradans had voted for Republican presidential candidates for nearly three decades until Bill Clinton broke onto the scene. Still, George W. Bush narrowly won the state twice, but in 2004–while Bush narrowly captured the majority–Democrat, Ken Salazar won a U.S. Senate seat and his brother John Salazar won a seat in the U.S. House, and Democrats captured both chambers of the state legislature. So in some ways, Colorado is the quintessential swing state where no party ever gets a good toe hold on the craggy political slopes.

Here are last night’s numbers on the presidential race:

Poll type:: Automated Date: 6/25/2012 - Participants: 1,083 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.98%
CANDIDATE
Percent
Barack Obama46.6%
Mitt Romney43.0%
Undecided10.4%

Obama won Colorado by nine points in 2008,  and is now leading Romney by the margin of error. The Rocky Mountain’s State’s electorate can turn on a dime, though, and this is one area that we’ll continue to probe up until Election Day to see whether the president pulls away, or Romney claws his way back.

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