MO Big 10 Jul26

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MO Big 10

We wrap up the first round in our Big 10 presidential series with Missouri (today) and Ohio (tomorrow). Once again, we’ve added Libertarian Gary Johnson to our poll to test how third-party candidates will affect the end results. As

Missouri is viewed by some as a toss-up state for president, but the tea leaves aren’t real promising for President Obama in the Show Me State. He narrowly lost Missouri in 2008, and the electorate in the Show Me State was an early and vocal critic of his health care reforms. In addition, Missouri will feature a marquee battle for the U.S. Senate featuring Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill–a candidate pundits claim is vulnerable due to her support for initiatives such as the stimulus bill and health care reforms (in addition, or course, to the problems she faces over not paying taxes on a jet her husband owns).  The Obama issue-related attacks against McCaskill that will ensue after the August primary won’t help the President in Missouri, where Mitt Romney will undoubtedly pound away like Harry Carey used to pound Budweisers during Cardinal games. Holy cow!

Sure enough, when we asked 1,172 likely Missouri voters their opinion, here’s what they said:

Poll type:: Automated Date: July 24, 2012 - Participants: 1,172 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%
 
Obama
Romney
Johnson
Undecided
All voters (weighted)39.73%49.01%2.12%9.14%
Republicans12%82%0%6%
Democrats82%11%2%5%
Independents31%49%4%16%

We included the crosstabs for Party ID for one reason: we want to track where the third-party candidates are “draining” votes. In Missouri, it appears that Independents and Democrats are looking for an alternative to the main stream. We’ll see if that continues.

Next up–THE pivotal state: Ohio.

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