Western Front Oct01


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Western Front

Our second round of polling for today consists of neighboring states with differing opinions: Colorado and New Mexico.


The Centennial State’s electorate is a vibrant mix of aging hippies, current and retired military and nearly every walk of life in between. The eclectic mixture makes Colorado a tough state to predict. Here are our results from our last poll:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,273Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS49.3%45.5%1.3%3.9%
GOP ONLY15.9%80.1%0.9%3.1%
DEM ONLY85.2%12.5%0.2%2.1%
IND ONLY42.3%47.3%2.9%7.5%

As with all our polls, the topline results have been weighted with our propriety formula using 65 different criteria. We’re providing the self-described party affiliation cross-tabs since so many have asked for it. Again, these affiliations are self-described and not used in our weighting system.

New Mexico

While some thought New Mexico would be in play this fall (George W. Bush barely won here in 2004), the Land of Enchantment is clearly leaning left in the presidential and Senate race (Democrat Martin Heinrich vs. Republican Heather Wilson) this year:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,258 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.85%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS50.9%40.6%3.9%4.6%
GOP ONLY11.6%82.7%2.3%3.4%
DEM ONLY81.5%12.5%2.0%4.0%
IND ONLY36.8%44.5%9.2%9.5%
SENATEMartin HeinrichHeather WilsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS52.3%40.8%6.9%
GOP ONLY16.9%79.4%3.7%
DEM ONLY81.3%14.5%4.2%
IND ONLY41.2%48.9%9.9%

The only real surprise to us was that former NM Governor Gary Johnson isn’t doing better here. While New Mexico has been leaning left, Johnson was pulling down double digits early in the summer but has clearly faded since. His presence on the ticket was once believed to be a problem for Mitt Romney. Now, his meager draw isn’t taking enough chunks to matter, and Barack Obama is cruising toward the finish line.