Horse races Oct02


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Horse races

We wrap up our latest round of polls with Missouri and Nevada.


NOTE: A reader just let us know that we originally misspelled Todd Akin’s name. It has been corrected, and we apologize for the error.

The Show Me State has shown America a fair amount of political upheaval in the last 12 months. One of the first states to legislatively reject federal health care reforms, its popular Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill got into hot water over not paying property taxes for a family-owned jet. To face McCaskill this fall, Missouri Republicans elected Todd Akin–the candidate many felt was the weakest on the ballot. Still, most experts put Missouri’s Senate seat in the Democratic loss column…until Akin’s infamous use of the term “legitimate rape” in an interview. That quote put Akin on the GOP’s persona non grata list and it was assumed that McCaskill would breeze to a win. But Akin has hung in and made it a horse race–undoubted aided by the fact that Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama in another tight race:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,145Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.9%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS44.5%47.7%2.0%5.8%
GOP ONLY12.7%82.6%1.2%3.5%
DEM ONLY86.1%9.8%0.3%3.8%
IND ONLY35.3%51.4%4.1%9.2%
SENATEClaire McCaskill (D)Todd Akin (R
ALL VOTERS46.0%45.2%8.8%
GOP ONLY12.5%78.8%8.7%
DEM ONLY87.4%8.0%4.6%
IND ONLY39.0%48.6%12.4%


Nevada’s race for president can’t be considered close (although it’s not over, either), but the race for U.S. Senate is among the tightest we’ve seen lately. Incumbent Republican Dean Heller is said to be running a textbook race against Democrat U.S. Rep.  Shelley Berkley, who has been under a cloud from an ethics investigation. Still, Nevada has been leaning left lately, so Berkley is nipping at Heller’s heels and most believe it will be a race to the wire:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,152 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS 52.5% 42.0% 2.3% 3.2%
GOP ONLY18.7%78.2%1.5%1.6%
DEM ONLY86.4%11.8%0.2%1.6%
IND ONLY35.3%50.7%5.7%8.3%
SENATE Dean Heller (R)Shelley Berkley (D)Undecided
ALL VOTERS 45.2% 44.9% 9.9%
GOP ONLY81.3%13.8%4.9%
DEM ONLY14.7%76.7%8.6%
IND ONLY54.7%28.0%17.3%

 Later today: Ohio results. UPDATE: The Ohio poll which we had hoped to publish yesterday was being used with the permission of a private client. That client later retracted their permission, so we’ll be doing a new poll there soon on our own dime…probably after Wednesday’s debate.