Nebraska

A number of readers have been asking us to poll the Nebraska Senate race featuring Democrat former U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey and Republican Deb Fischer since we had some success there in the surprise Republican primary win by Fischer. Kerrey has moved toward the center in his effort to keep retiring Senator Ben Nelson’s seat in the hands of Democrats, but has faced an uphill battle in a state where Mitt Romney has a double-digit lead over Barack Obama.  He’s made some hay by trying to exploit a land dispute Fischer had years ago with a neighboring ranch, but may have gone over the top by claiming Fischer was trying somehow to grab property that didn’t belong to her. Still, Kerrey is a skilled communicator and Fischer has yet to be tested in a statewide arena, so we thought we’d check to see if those claiming the race was tightening are correct.

We do not believe they are:

Poll type: Automated Date: November 1, 2012 - Participants: 1,178 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.95%
 
Deb Fischer (R)
Bob Kerrey (D)
Undecided
ALL VOTERS53.6%41.2%5.2%
DEM only18%79%3%
GOP only85%12%3%
IND only48%42%10%

As in all of our polls, these results have been weighted to normalize and over-/under-sampling in key demographic and geographic areas. In the same poll, we asked likely voters their choice for president; the results were Obama 41%; Romney 54%; Generic 3rd Party 2%; Undecided 3%--so Fischer seems to be mirroring the state’s political mood.

Absent some major political explosion, it appears that the improbable winner of the Republican Primary will find herself a member of the world’s most exclusive club.

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