IL Turnout Tool

With pollsters split on the Illinois governor’s race, it’s important to remember how regional turnout can move election results fairly dramatically in the Land of Lincoln. To illustrate that point, we developed an online turnout effect calculator to allow those who possess both political tendencies and way too much time on their hands a chance to play the with different turnout scenarios.

The calculator splits Illinois into four regions (Chicago, Suburban Cook Co., Collar Counties and Downstate) and we preset the turnout in each of those areas to match the 2010 midterm turnout. Of course, you can change those anyway you want. We’ve also populated the vote splits with our latest poll results, but you can wipe that out and put your own numbers. After you twiddle the numbers, click the submit button to see what it does to the final results. The whole thing is designed to fit on an iPad, and we included a RESET button to put all the numbers back to presets.

With the Illinois governor’s race as tight as it seems, this shows how tweaking a few numbers effects the final result. Instructions are on the page (just click on the INSTRUCTIONS button).

Have fun.

IL Congressional

We Ask America Polls™ did a round of internal polls in targeted Illinois congressional races last night. This morning, it was decided to make them public since no group, campaign or individual requested or paid for them. For now, we’ll show you the toplines with brief comments. Check back later and we’ll offer you some crosstabs.

Here we go:

Illinois 10:

Brad Schneider (D)45.09%
Bob Dold (R)47.16%
Undecided7.75%

Our numbers in the hotly contested 10th District race illustrate why it’s considered one of the nation’s most competitive.  This week’s report of a large TV buy for Dold from former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg could tip the scales, but this one should still be considered a toss-up.

Illinois 11:

Bill Foster (D)51.64%
Darlene Senger (R)40.32%
Undecided8.04%

Incumbent Bill Foster has taken a decided double-digit lead on Darlene Senger  in the redrawn 11th District. Foster’s background as a scientist and wealthy entrepreneur has made it difficult for Republicans to peg him as anti-business.  Unless the GOP can prove he’s the one responsible for all of Jay Cutler’s interceptions, Foster should be safe on Election Day.

Illinois 12:

Bill Enyart (D)41.83%
Mike Bost (R)43.50%
Paula Bradshaw (G)5.79%
Undecided8.89%

Along with IL-10, the 12th District falls within the margin of error and is really anyone’s race.  State Rep. Mike Bost holds a slight lead in this Democratic leaning district, despite efforts from the left to portray him as a loose-cannon.

Illinois 13: 

Rodney Davis (R)52.83%
Ann Callis (D)35.63%
Undecided11.53%

In what was once thought to be a swing district under the new map, House freshman Rodney Davis appears in good shape to hold on to his slightly Democratic central Illinois District.  Davis’ lead may inch towards single digits on November 4th with a big Dem GOTV effort, but he should be safe.

Illinois 17:

Cheri Bustos (D)54.98%
Bobby Schilling (R)38.94%
Undecided6.08%

In a rematch from 2012, many have felt from the beginning that incumbent Cheri Bustos would be tough to beat. Barring anything unforeseen, Bobby Schilling will continue wishing it was 2010.