Final MI & AZ

As America was gearing up to watch the Oscars, We Ask America was in the field in Michigan and Arizona asking likely Republican voters for the final time before Tuesday’s primaries asking voters for their choice for president. This time, we didn’t give participants an option to say they were undecided:

If the Primary Election for President were held today–and you HAD to make a choice–for whom would you vote?

Here’s what Michigan voters said:

Type: Automated - Date: 2/26//2012 - Responses: 984 Likely GOP voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.12%
GingrichPaulRomneySantorum
12.53%18.08%36.85%32.53%

And here’s what Arizona voters had to say:

Type: Automated - Date: 2/26//2012 - Responses: 1,162 Likely GOP voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.87%
GingrichPaulRomneySantorum
20.65%10.15%42.66%26.54%

It appears that Mitt Romney has Arizona tucked away…Michigan may be another story. While Romney has pulled out all the stops in his home state and seems poised for a come-from-behind victory, Rick Santorum has hung in against an onslaught of negative ads and a few gaffes of his own doing. If Santorum loses by a close margin, many will question Romney’s ability to close the ultimate deal after a less-than-stellar showing in the Wolverine State.

Of course, many of those saying that will be Santorum, Gingrich and Paul.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

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Illinois 2

Democrat Jesse Jackson, Jr. has had a bumpy ride the last few years. Beyond reported personal indiscretions that produced tabloid-ready headlines, Jackson has been under an ethics microscope for his role in an alleged scheme to raise funds for former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich in exchange for an appointment to Barack Obama’s Senate seat. The renegade head-of-hair Blago will soon be a guest of the federal prison system, but the probe into what happened continues. To that end, the Office of Congressional Ethics looked into Congressman Jackson’s actions during the Blagojevich escapade and concluded:

“There is probable cause to believe that Rep. Jackson either (1) directed a third-party to raise money for Gov. Blagojevich in exchange for appointing Rep. Jackson to (President Obama’s former) senate seat, or (2) had knowledge that…(an ally) would likely make such an offer… Jackson and his staff (used) staff resources both in Washington and Chicago…to mount a ‘public campaign’ to secure (his) appointment to the senate.”

Yeeouch.

Enter Debbie Halvorson, former State Senator and one-term Member of Congress who lost in 2010 to Republican Adam Kinzinger. The re-map of Illinois’ congressional districts gave Halvorson a fighting chance as the new 2nd District dipped into the south Chicagoland suburbs and Jackson continued to be a magnet for bad headlines. Halvorson’s party-line voting record that got her into some hot water in her old blue-collar conservative district is a better fit in Illinois 2’s ethnically diverse area. Plus, some super-PAC funds have been directed to her side.

So with all of Jackson’s problems and Halvorson’s advantages,  this certainly ought to be a barn burner of a race, right?

Not so much:

Type: Automated - Date: 2/21//2012 - Participants: 1,294 Likely Democrat voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.72%
 HalvorsonJacksonUndecided
ALL VOTERS32%54%14%
BY GENDER
Female27%57%16%
Male37%51%12%
By ETHNIC ORIGIN
African American21%65%14%
Asian35%58%7%
Hispanic37%45%18%
White62%29%9%
Other22%53%25%

Clearly, the voters of Illinois’ 2nd Congressional District aren’t buying into conventional wisdom. We’ve included the Ethnic Origin breakdowns to show there is a definite Minority/White split of opinion. Of course there’s still time for Halvorson to reduce the gap, and if the 50+ percent of voters who are African American stay home on Primary Day (March 20), we may be in for a surprise.

But for now, Congressman Jackson appears ready to prove the naysayers wrong.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

 

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Illinois 16

We’ve had a number of requests for primary polls in some key congressional districts across the nation, and we kick off a brief series of these with a look into the Republican race in Illinois 16. CD16 was carved into a GOP-heavy district that pits longtime Congressman Don Manzullo against one-term wunderkind Adam Kinzinger. The new district cobbles together parts of Manzullo’s current 16th District, a portion of Kinzingers’ 11th and some new turf for both.

Kinzinger handily beat Blue Dog Democrat incumbent Debbie Halvorson in 2010 in a conservative blue-collar district after Halvorson voted in lockstep with her party’s agenda. True, 2010 was a good year for Republican in most places, but Kinzinger impressed many with his work ethic and Boy Scout image that has held up to scrutiny.

Manzullo first won office in 1992 by defeating one-term Democrat John Cox. He has been reelected seven more times, all by easy margins in this heavily Republican former district. Redistricting forced the perennial Congressman head-to-head with the upstart Kinzinger. Rumors swirled early that Manzullo was considering retirement due to family health concerns, but he eventually announced he’d run again in the newly redesigned district. Kinzinger–looking for a home since his district was carved up–set his sites on the 16th and hasn’t stopped campaigning since.

Most agree that whoever wins this primary will ease through the General Election, so we asked 1,395 likely Republican voters in Illinois 16 how they plan to vote. Here’s what they said:

Type: Automated - Date: 2/19-20//2012 - Participants: 1,395 Likely GOP voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.62%
 KinzingerManzulloUndecided
ALL VOTERS47%34%19%
By GENDER
Female45%35%21%
Male49%34%16%
By AGE BRACKET
18-2443%43%14%
25-3460%29%11%
35-4439%37%24%
45-5451%25%24%
55-6448%35%16%
65+44%38%18%

A deeper look into where the responses to this poll came from reveals that Manzullo continues to lead comfortably in the areas he represented prior to the re-map, while young Adam Kinzinger is cleaning up in both his former area and the areas that are new to both candidates. As we always like to point out: a single poll in a given district should never be taken as a prediction of the inevitable. But the internal numbers–especially WHERE the responses came from–point to Kinzinger as the clear leader for now.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

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AZ : Romney, for now

Arizona presidential politics have been pretty darn predictable over the last 60 years. Except for 1996–when the Grand Canyon State gave the electoral nod to Bill Clinton–Arizona voters have selected Republican presidential candidates for the past six decades.

The state became the epicenter for the nation’s immigration debate when it passed tough new regulations (along with an executive order from Gov. Jan Brewer) that–among other things–expanded law enforcement’s parameters over what constitutes “reasonable suspicion”of  illegal immigrant status. Brewer became a pin cushion for those who disagreed with the state’s approach, and the issue continues to be a major force here. Some pundits are predicting that immigration could ultimately be the catalyst causing a win for a Democrat presidential candidate for only the second time since 1952.

Still, Arizona is certainly not a one-trick pony when it comes to issues of interest to the electorate, and GOP hopefuls believe voters here will stay the course in the fall.

With that in mind, we asked 1,155 likely GOP voters in Arizona the following main question:

If the Republican Primary Election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Here are the results:

Type: Automated - Date: 2/19-20//2012 - Participants: 1,155 Likely GOP voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.88%
 GingrichPaulRomneySantorumUndecided 
ALL VOTERS15%8%37%27%13%
BY GENDER
Female16%6%37%27%13%
Male13%10%37%27%13%
BY AGE
18-2432%23%26%10%10%
25-3416%18%36%14%16%
35-4416%21%28%23%12%
45-5412%7%33%37%12%
55-6415%10%36%29%10%
65+14%5%40%27%14%

While Mitt Romney may be enjoying a 10-point lead today (some say largely attributable to the sizable Mormon population in Arizona), it’s hard to ignore Rick Santorum’s impressive track record of moving up rapidly at times. Clearly, the attention that Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu’s controversy is creating is drawing the spotlight from the news cycles that would normally be focused on the GOP presidential hopefuls.

If (when?) Sheriff Babeau’s coverage dies down, there may be enough energy left over to move some numbers here.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

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Michigan: Dead Heat

The State of Michigan has displayed its fair share of mojo lately. From Clint Eastwood’s breathy Super Bowl ad proclaiming the U.S. auto industry as the economic beacon of hope, to the Detroit Red Wings 20+ home winning streak, Michigan appears to be collectively looking ahead–not back.

Perhaps it’s the Wolverine State’s new-found moxy that is shaking up its Republican Primary and giving Rick Santorum a boost. Just two weeks ago some considered Michigan as a forgone conclusion for Mitt Romney thanks to his father’s legacy as governor, but many pollsters are showing Santorum with a decent lead. However, some analysts have been cautioning that Romney should not be written off, especially in light of the recent history of new frontrunners quickly melting in the bright, hot lights of media scrutiny.

Those pundits may have been right. Santorum didn’t have a great weekend–getting in a bit of hot water by using the term “phony theology” in reference to President Obama’s agenda. That may be red meat for some, but the statement teed up the ball for the press and Santorum had to tap dance as they shot at his feet. That gaffe allowed Romney’s troops to howl about Santorum being too conservative to win (while, of course, saying that their guy is the TRUE conservative in the race).

So what’s that mean for next week’s election? Last night, we asked 1,025 likely GOP voters in Michigan for their choice in next week’s primary. Beyond the usual range of demographics, we asked them one main question:

“If the Republican Primary were held today, for whom would you vote?”

Here are the results:

Type: Automated - Date: 219//2012 - Participants: 1,025 Likely GOP voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.06%
 GingrichPaulRomneySantorumUndecided
ALL VOTERS10%12%29%29%20%
By GENDER
Female8%10%32%27%23%
Male13%14%27%32%14%

NOTE: A sharp-eyed viewer caught that our age bracket demographics are garbling the results from our database, so we’ve removed them until our technical gurus can straighten it out.

Whether or not Santorum can regain his own mojo down the stretch after his weekend of faux pas will be measured when we revisit Michigan next Sunday.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

 

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