Horse races

We wrap up our latest round of polls with Missouri and Nevada.


NOTE: A reader just let us know that we originally misspelled Todd Akin’s name. It has been corrected, and we apologize for the error.

The Show Me State has shown America a fair amount of political upheaval in the last 12 months. One of the first states to legislatively reject federal health care reforms, its popular Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill got into hot water over not paying property taxes for a family-owned jet. To face McCaskill this fall, Missouri Republicans elected Todd Akin–the candidate many felt was the weakest on the ballot. Still, most experts put Missouri’s Senate seat in the Democratic loss column…until Akin’s infamous use of the term “legitimate rape” in an interview. That quote put Akin on the GOP’s persona non grata list and it was assumed that McCaskill would breeze to a win. But Akin has hung in and made it a horse race–undoubted aided by the fact that Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama in another tight race:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,145Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.9%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS44.5%47.7%2.0%5.8%
GOP ONLY12.7%82.6%1.2%3.5%
DEM ONLY86.1%9.8%0.3%3.8%
IND ONLY35.3%51.4%4.1%9.2%
SENATEClaire McCaskill (D)Todd Akin (R
ALL VOTERS46.0%45.2%8.8%
GOP ONLY12.5%78.8%8.7%
DEM ONLY87.4%8.0%4.6%
IND ONLY39.0%48.6%12.4%


Nevada’s race for president can’t be considered close (although it’s not over, either), but the race for U.S. Senate is among the tightest we’ve seen lately. Incumbent Republican Dean Heller is said to be running a textbook race against Democrat U.S. Rep.  Shelley Berkley, who has been under a cloud from an ethics investigation. Still, Nevada has been leaning left lately, so Berkley is nipping at Heller’s heels and most believe it will be a race to the wire:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,152 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS 52.5% 42.0% 2.3% 3.2%
GOP ONLY18.7%78.2%1.5%1.6%
DEM ONLY86.4%11.8%0.2%1.6%
IND ONLY35.3%50.7%5.7%8.3%
SENATE Dean Heller (R)Shelley Berkley (D)Undecided
ALL VOTERS 45.2% 44.9% 9.9%
GOP ONLY81.3%13.8%4.9%
DEM ONLY14.7%76.7%8.6%
IND ONLY54.7%28.0%17.3%

 Later today: Ohio results. UPDATE: The Ohio poll which we had hoped to publish yesterday was being used with the permission of a private client. That client later retracted their permission, so we’ll be doing a new poll there soon on our own dime…probably after Wednesday’s debate.









Western Front

Our second round of polling for today consists of neighboring states with differing opinions: Colorado and New Mexico.


The Centennial State’s electorate is a vibrant mix of aging hippies, current and retired military and nearly every walk of life in between. The eclectic mixture makes Colorado a tough state to predict. Here are our results from our last poll:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,273Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS49.3%45.5%1.3%3.9%
GOP ONLY15.9%80.1%0.9%3.1%
DEM ONLY85.2%12.5%0.2%2.1%
IND ONLY42.3%47.3%2.9%7.5%

As with all our polls, the topline results have been weighted with our propriety formula using 65 different criteria. We’re providing the self-described party affiliation cross-tabs since so many have asked for it. Again, these affiliations are self-described and not used in our weighting system.

New Mexico

While some thought New Mexico would be in play this fall (George W. Bush barely won here in 2004), the Land of Enchantment is clearly leaning left in the presidential and Senate race (Democrat Martin Heinrich vs. Republican Heather Wilson) this year:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,258 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.85%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS50.9%40.6%3.9%4.6%
GOP ONLY11.6%82.7%2.3%3.4%
DEM ONLY81.5%12.5%2.0%4.0%
IND ONLY36.8%44.5%9.2%9.5%
SENATEMartin HeinrichHeather WilsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS52.3%40.8%6.9%
GOP ONLY16.9%79.4%3.7%
DEM ONLY81.3%14.5%4.2%
IND ONLY41.2%48.9%9.9%

The only real surprise to us was that former NM Governor Gary Johnson isn’t doing better here. While New Mexico has been leaning left, Johnson was pulling down double digits early in the summer but has clearly faded since. His presence on the ticket was once believed to be a problem for Mitt Romney. Now, his meager draw isn’t taking enough chunks to matter, and Barack Obama is cruising toward the finish line.



We’ll quickly finish up our second round of our own “Big Ten” states today before the debates commence. This morning: Iowa & Michigan; the remaining states will get posted later today, so check back later.


It wasn’t that long ago that many respected prognosticators said that Michigan was in play. Mitt Romney did his best to lay claim to being a favorite son, and the early numbers indicated that he may have a chance to keep the state competitive. Today, that simply does not appear to be the case. President Obama has spent his time wisely in this state that was in huge trouble when the economic bubble burst. Whether or not you agree with the automotive industry bailout that was directed mostly at General Motors, those whose jobs were tied to the situation were paying attention. And they seem to be showing it in our latest results:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,064 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS52.0%39.9%1.1%7.0%
GOP ONLY14.3%81.2%0.3%4.2%
DEM ONLY89.0%6.0%0.5%4.5%
IND ONLY42.7%42.7%2.5%12.1%

As with all polls in this series, we’ve included Libertarian Gary Johnson to measure third-party support. And please note that the political party affiliation is self-identified in these polls.


Iowa must feel like the prettiest girl at the dance this year. Not only does their caucus system put them in the limelight early and often, both Obama and Romney targeted the Hawkeye State as a pivotal one in a tight race. Unlike Michigan, Iowa is still in play, though:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,273 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS47.5%43.7%2.3%6.5%
GOP ONLY11.2%82.6%1.1%5.1%
DEM ONLY90.3%6.5%0.5%2.7%
IND ONLY44.8%37.6%2.8%14.8%

Again: watch for more results this afternoon!