Wisconsin 7: Life after Obey

I can’t think of the north woods of Wisconsin without thinking of the old Hamm’s beer jingle: “From the land of sky-blue waters (wa-ha-terssss)…” This is the land of logging camps, muskies, rustic cabins with knotty-pine interiors and an electorate that historically held an independently progressive streak. When this district’s venerable Congressman, David Obey, announced his retirement after 40 years of serving the area, local Republicans believed that they finally had a chance to break through. But do they? While it’s not official until their primary is held in September, the pundits agree that that the GOP will have a strong candidate in Ashland County District Attorney Sean Duffy. Duffy has garnered a reputation as a tireless worker whose strong fund-raising efforts are keeping him in the game. custodia galaxy a5 2016 samsung The Democrats’ likely candidate is no slouch as well: State Senator Julie Lassa. custodia samsung s9 plus juventus In this election where, nationally speaking, new=better, Lassa has the burden of having a legislative voting record which will undoubted be forensically examined and splashed. Also at play here is the fact that this district’s Independent voters’ negative reaction to Obey’s votes on a variety of President Obama’s reform measures–notably health-care reform. (See post HERE.)

That leads us to the purpose of this Quick-Shot series: to measure the mindset of the all-important Independent voters at this point in the election cycle. This series of polls are aimed at just that, and while we feel confident about the overall head-to-head numbers, the focus here is on INDEPENDENTS. custodia computer samsung Got it? OK.

Late last week we asked 1,002 randomly selected voters in Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District two simple questions:

If the election for your member of Congress were held today, for whom would you vote? and… custodia a5 2017 samsung originale What is your political party affiliation?

Here are the results:

Wisconsin CD 7 - Life after Obey

Date of Poll: 8/4/2010
Participants: 1,002 registered voters
Margin of Error: ±3.10%
(R) Sean Duffy41.83%11.53%79.50%37.77%
(D) Julie Lassa33.09%72.88%4.68%22.87%
*********************************************************************** As you will see as our Quick-Shot Series, WI-7 mirrors a trend in two areas:

  • Democrat voters are straying a bit more off base than Republicans. In WI-7, 11.53% of those who said they were Democrats chose Sean Duffy, but only 4.68% of Republican chose Julie Lassa.
  • Independents are leaning the GOP’s way. custodia samsung s8 flamingo In WI-7, the GOP enjoy a 15% margin. e s tech custodia per samsung galaxy tab a 2016 However, this district has one of the highest percentages of undecided Independents, so this is a long way from over.

You may be wondering whether the advantage that Republicans have over Democrats among Independents is an anti-incumbent sentiment or a turn to the right. Watch for more in this series to find out!

to measure the mindset of the all-important Independent voters at this point in the election cycle. This series of polls are aimed at just that, and while we feel confident about the overall head-to-head numbers, the focus here is on INDEPENDENTS.

Shocker in Chicago

Chicago Mayor Richard Daley’s retirement announcement hit the State of Illinois like a thunderclap. After more than two decades presiding over one of the nation’s most diverse constituencies, the residents of Chicago will choose a new mayor next year from a long–and growing–list of possible candidates.  While we fully accept the argument that it is way too early to be polling for replacements for Hizzoner, the political buzz the announcement created in the City of Broad Shoulders is palpable, and we simply can’t resist throwing out the first polling pitch. But who to choose? As we pull the trigger on this poll, we’ve found 40+ possible candidates mentioned in published reports, with more queuing up for consideration. We wanted to narrow it down to ten (because there’s only ten digits on a phone for an automated poll), so we added up the articles and chose the ten who were mentioned in the most clippings–not exactly as precise our usual polls…but what the heck.  This is for fun. Who made the cut?

  • Alderman Ed Burke
  • Former Commerce Secretary (and First Brother) Bill Daley
  • Cook County Sheriff (and former State Rep) Tom Dart
  • Presidential Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel
  • Alderman Bob Fioretti
  • Congressman Luis Gutierrez
  • Cook County Assessor Jim Houlihan
  • Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr
  • Reverend/State Senator/Education reformer James Meeks; and
  • CTA Chairman (and former Housing Authority Chief) Terry Peterson

Since the options were asked in alphabetical order using names only…no descriptive narrative…about the best we can assume is that name recognition played a big role in this survey.  Let’s look at the results: (remember: the TOTAL column gives the aggregate results, followed by a breakdown by ethnic origin.)

Chicago Mayoral Poll

Ed Burke6.31%5.44%7.07%3.38%8.74%4.00%
Bill Daley8.16%5.58%20.20%7.59%10.72%3.50%
Tom Dart13.66%7.44%6.06%5.91%24.26%12.50%
Rahm Emanuel29.68%34.53%21.21%21.94%30.04%23.50%
Bob Fiorietti2.95%2.39%3.03%2.53%2.82%6.00%
Luis Guitierrez12.81%6.24%10.10%50.63%7.19%14.00%
Jim Houlihan2.30%1.20%2.02%1.27%4.09%1.50%
Jesse Jackson Jr13.36%20.85%18.18%4.64%5.92%19.50%
James Meeks8.21%13.41%6.06%1.69%4.09%12.00%
Terry Peterson2.55%2.92%6.06%0.42%2.12%3.50%
Clearly, presidential CoS and former congressman Rahm Emanuel has a strong lead among this very vague preliminary test of 2,365 Chicago voters.  Emanuel holds sway with both white and black voters in this city that gave the nation President Obama and leaves some fairly well-known competitors in the dust. Again, the list of possible candidates was largely built on speculation by political pundits and other Really Smart People, so keep that in mind. And remember…THIS IS FOR FUN.

We Ask America announces “Obama in the Heartland” poll series

How is President Obama playing in Peoria? That’s what our new series of public polls seeks to ascertain as we ask more than 5,000 Heartland residents one simple question: In general, custodia in pelle s4 samsung galaxy custodia con tastiera samsung tab a 2016 t585n galaxy t580 custodia slot per schede custodia spigen samsung s8 custodia trasparente samsung s9 plus j5 samsung 2017 custodia samsung galaxy tab 3 lite custodia custodia cell samsung s4 custodia samsung a8 carte credito custodia samsung s7 silicone do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing? The polls are being conducted in Illinois, custodia originale samsung a3 2015 custodia samsung s6 legno custodia flip samsung s5 custodia waterproof samsung j7 custodia galaxy j3 2016 silicone custodia s7 edge samsung glitter custodia samsung galaxy j 3 custodia portafoglio a3 2017 samsung custodia samsung galaxy tab 3 lite custodia samsung j3 6 2016 Iowa, custodia a libro samsung j3 custodia in pelle con clip samsung s5 custodia samsung galaxy trend plus custodia tablet samsung e 9 6 custodia samsung j5 portafoglio samsung galaxy s9 custodia led view custodia uag samsung custodia juventus samsung j3 galaxy s7 edge custodia specchio custodia trasparente galaxy a5 2016 Michigan, custodia galaxi s9 custodia samsung galaxy s7edge custodia antiurto galaxy j3 2017 custodia samsung s7 edge custodia samsung s6 edge juventus easyacc samsung galaxy tab a 10 1 custodia cover custodia samsung galaxy a7 custodia samsung tab 6 custodia samsung s7 edge con screen protector custodia 360 plastica samsung s7 edge Ohio and Wisconsin. custodia samsung j3 2015 custodia per cellulare samsung s6 edge plus custodia per galaxy tab s3 custodia cellulare samsung a5 custodia cell samsung j3 custodia per samsung galaxy j7 2016 custodia j7 2017 samsung originale samsung j7 2016 custodia portafoglio custodia tablet samsung sm t585 2799 custodia galaxy a5 2017 samsung Do you have a good idea for a public poll for us to conduct? Use the form in the right column of our home page to let us know.

By request: Illinois CD 17

By a landslide, the most-requested poll I receive emails on is Illinois’s 17th Congressional District. Long a Democratic stronghold of former Congressman Lane Evans, CD 17 is one of the…well…squirreliest-drawn districts in the nation. It meanders around the western edge of the Land of Lincoln, occasionally jutting out like an amoeba getting ready to divide. custodia samsung galaxy a3 2015 a libro The largest population in this district can be found in the Quad Cities (Rock Island/Moline), Quincy, and bits of Springfield and Decatur. custodia samsung s8 a specchio The Quad Cities is decidedly blue collar, conservative and Democratic. custodia j3 2017 samsung silicone Democrat Phil Hare, Lane Evan’s former CoS, has held this seat since 2006, but has run into a bit of trouble as of late. A rather unfortunate quote regarding the U.S. Constitution started the ball rolling downhill for Hare, but few thought he’d be pushed hard by Republican pizzeria-owner Bobby Schilling. To complicate matters for Hare, the district has a Green Party candidate, Roger Davis. custodia samsung j5 nero Let’s see the poll results:

Illinois CD 17

Date of Poll: September 8, 2010
Participants: 1,250
Margin of Error: ±2.77%
(D) Phil Hare38.41%9.60%73.09%22.63%
(R) Bobby Schilling41.15%79.66%8.75%44.41%
(G) Roger Davis3.85%1.13%2.84%7.82%
There appears to be a reason so many had urged polling in Illinois 17. custodia samsung s7 edge 360 The fact that the very conservative Schilling is in a statistical tie with Hare is once again an indication of change–especially among Independent voters.

The Show Me State

After a busy season conducting contracted poll, We Ask America is today announcing a series of “Quick Shots” where we poll key races with two questions only:

  1. If the election for your [U.S. Senator/Member of Congress] were held today, for whom would you vote?
  2. What is your political party affiliation?

We kick off the series in the Show Me state–Missouri. custodia samsung j5 6 2017 a libro originale Tuesday’s primary in Cardinal-land did more than set the ballot in November–it provided a whopping 71-29 passage of a referendum essentially nixing national health care reforms. custodia tablet samsung s2 8 pollici Missouri’s race for the U.S. custodia samsung galaxi a5 Senate seat being vacated by Republican Kit Bond, though, will certainly not be a lopsided affair. custodia flip samsung s3 neo Most pundits view this one as The One to Watch: expensive and as loud of the crack of Albert Pujols’ bat. custodia telefono impermeabile samsung The principals here are Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt. custodia tablet samsung s3 originale Both sides have hit each other with the dreaded insider tag, and with some justification. Carnahan is attempting to become heir apparent to her family’s extensive political history in Missouri, while House Minority Whip Blunt is a fixture in the House. And–as if the two previous baseball references weren’t enough–they do play hard ball in Missouri, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on this one. The results, below, give you the top-line results (TOTAL COLUMN) with breakdowns on party-affiliation lines.

Report of death exaggerated?

Even if we weren’t based in the Land of Lincoln, we’d find Illinois politics fascinating. And now, in this blue state, Republicans are holding their own in recent polling. Will it last? It’s too early to tell, and there’s some conflicting indicators here that make the overall picture even more of a mystery. custodia galaxy tab e samsung First, let’s look at the race for the U.S. Senate.

Senate: Democrat Alexi Giannoulias vs Republican Mark Kirk vs Green Party’s LeAlan Jones. (Incumbent: Roland Burris)

Alexi Giannoulias is the Democrat State Treasurer and was a regular during the famous presidential campaign pick-up basketball games. Giannoulias was only 30 years old when elected to office largely on the strength of his experience as a loan officer in his family’s bank. Now, that bank has been the fodder for some fairly spectacular headlines involving, among other things, loans to mob figures. To complicate matters, the bank was recently taken over by the FDIC amid stories of mismanagement (although Giannoulias makes the argument that the Economy was the culprit). And it really didn’t help that he was at the helm of the Treasurer’s Office when the nation’s economy went south contributing to a sizable loss in a college-savings program he oversaw. The Republican challenger is Congressman Mark Kirk. Kirk had a fairly easy primary, but has taken his share of grief by his own Party over his voting record in Congress. A fiscal conservative with a Master’s Degree from the London School of Economics, Kirk lives in the 10th Congressional District which leans left. custodia samsung sm j100h He’s faced some tough battles over the past few elections…but has prevailed in all. And while he ticked off many of the state’s employers with some of his previous stances that may reflect his home district’s views, he gets the credit for talking directly with business leaders after those votes, taking the full brunt of heat and living to run for higher office…aided greatly by his stalwart stance against deficits. Kirk touts his military background as an intelligence officer for the Naval Reserve (he was deployed to Afghanistan in 2008), and has not had to endure the media glare that Giannoulias has experienced. The Green Party candidate, LeAlan Jones, touts himself as a “Award-winning journalist. Single father. Football coach. Truth-teller.” While no one is giving Mr. Jones a chance, it should be noted that the Green Party has done surprisingly well in Illinois, (see Rich Whitney, below) and Jones can certainly play a spoiler role in the fall. On Sunday, May 2, 2010, we asked 1,090 likely Illinois voters who they are supporting for the U.S. Senate. custodia samsung j3 2017 minions Note that each candidate was identified by political party affiliation. Here are the results:

Illinois: U.S. Senate

 Alexi Giannoulias (D)Mark Kirk (R)LeAlan Jones (G)Unsure
Date of Poll: May 2, 2010
Number of responses: 1,090
Margin of Error: ±2.97%
Note that Kirk’s edge among Independents has ebbed by about five percentage points over the past month, but his lead has actually gained five points.

Illinois Governor: Democrat Pat Quinn vs Republican Bill Brady vs Green Party’s Rich Whitney

Republican State Senator Bill Brady is a home-builder from downstate Bloomington. He won a squeaker Primary by about 200 votes on his second run for governor in Illinois’ February 2nd election. Brady has yet to pull a significant vote total out of the state’s collar counties–the traditional GOP stronghold–but is said to be working the northern part of the state hard. He recently received some flak when he allowed reporters to examine his tax records and it was discovered that he had not paid (or owed any) income taxes for the past two years. Many chalked that up to the fact that the home-building industry was slammed by the economy (unlike Giannoulias, there has been no scandals attached to his business dealings), but you can bet his opponents will have some fun with that when the heat gets turned on. Democrat Pat Quinn is the incumbent due to his ascension to governor after Rod Blagojevich was impeached. As Lt. samsung j3 2017 custodia libro Governor, Quinn was a vocal opponent to many of Blago’s antics, but he also is on record saying good things about him when they ran and won as a team in 2002 and 2006. Quinn is a populist’s populist–he ends most of his speeches with the phrase: “May the will of the People be the law of the land.” He won a close, tough primary against State Comptroller Dan Hynes who bloodied him with some effective TV and radio ads. But Quinn ultimately prevailed when he parlayed his sincere outreach to veterans and the families of soldiers lost in Iraq into his campaign biography. samsung smt560 custodia Due to the state’s financial problems, Quinn has been touting a sizable income tax increase which is falling on deaf ears in the General Assembly. However, the Legislature’s hearing is rumored to improve after the fall elections, and he may be able to put revenue enhancers on the back burner until then. samsung galaxy tab 3 10 1 2013 custodia Ever the populist, Quinn recently (and somewhat quietly) urged the Illinois legislature to consider dramatic expansions to the nation’s recent health care reforms–“Obama-care on steroids” as one wag put it. The polling results on that issue shows that, politically speaking, he was wise for keeping the initiative quiet. Rich Whitney (Green Party) is a civil rights attorney from Carbondale. Whitney surprised election pundits in 2006 by receiving 10.4% of the vote for governor–a feat some feel was tied to Democrats turning elsewhere rather than vote for Blagojevich. custodia samsung s8 nera silicone Be that as it may, Whitney may once again prove to be the recipient of a growing number of voters who embrace anti-incumbentism, and therefore play a spoiler role. Here are the results of the poll we took on the Illinois Governor’s race on May 2, 2010. (Again, we identify the political party of each person for the participants.)

Illinois: Governor's Race

 Bill Brady (R)Pat Quinn (D)Rich Whitney (G) Unsure
Date of Poll: May 2, 2010
Number of responses: 1050
Margin of Error: ±3.02%
Note the percent of UNDECIDEDS among Democrats and Independents is roughly the same. This fact may not bode well for Quinn, who has been a fixture in Illinois’ Democratic scene for decades.

Automated vs Interview…the debate rages on

Which are better: interview polls or automated polls?

That depends. custodia rigida samsung s5 samsung galaxy a5 2015 custodia libro custodia tablet samsung tab a 6 10 1 custodia s8 plus in pelle samsung custodia samsung s9 inter s3 custodia samsung custodia samsung j 5 2017 samsung a5 2017 custodia portafoglio custodia originale samsung s3 We Ask America conducts both, custodia samsung s6 morbida custodia silicone galaxy j5 2017 custodia samsung s9 cover custodia samsung tab a 10 1 2016 custodia samsung tab e con tastiera samsung galaxy j2 prime custodia custodia per samsung 7 edge and both have their place. custodia samsung a 5 2017 rosa custodia antiurto samsung s2 8 pollici custodia galaxy a5 2017 glitter custodia portafoglio samsung j3 2016 custodia tablet a6 10 1 samsung samsung galaxy tab s2 9 7 custodia custodia per galaxy xcover 4 custodia samsung galaxy a5 2017 trasparente custodia a52017 samsung custodia galaxy tab2 Traditionally, custodia per galaxy j5 2016 custodia samsung tab a6 7 0 galaxy s5 neo custodia custodia tablet samsung tab4 custodia samsung sm t560 4285 interview polls ask more questions to fewer people and cost considerably more than automated polls. custodia tablet samsung tab e 560 custodia sottile samsung s9 custodia tablet samsung tab a 6 custodia samsung galaxy s6 esce plus custodia samsung a 6 custodia samsung note 10 1 con pellicola protettiva samsung a 5 2016 custodia custodia cellulare samsung galaxy core prime galaxy s9 plus custodia techump Automated polls can have a huge number of responses (we’ve conducted polls of up to 70,000 responses!), custodia galaxy tab a6 10 1 samsung custodia a libro samsung a6 custodia samsung s6 edge plus trasparente custodia x samsung a5 2016 colorate custodia samsung s6 impermeabile custodia samsung s5 mini a libro custodia samsung tab3 10 1 and cost about one-tenth the price of interview polls. custodia samsung note 8 marvell galaxy s5 custodia originale custodia samsung galaxy s7 edge custodia samsung a5 2016 silicone custodia samsung tab3 custodia samsung s8 coral blu custodia galaxy core custodia samsung s8 plus full body Interview pollsters have been publicly skeptical of their automated counterparts…and automated pollsters have proven their worth by being more accurate of late.

As goes Illinois …

We wrap up this season’s polls with a look at some key congressional races in We Ask America’s home state, Illinois. Will President Obama’s weekend trip to Sweet Home Chicago to pump up the Democrat turnout be enough to put some close races over the top? We’ll soon know. The President has a lot at stake here. Illinois is a Smurf-blue state. If three current seats held by Democrats (8, 11 & 14) flip and Republicans hold on to Mark Kirk’s 10th District seat, many will howl that it’s further proof that President Obama is in deep trouble. We polled those districts yesterday to see if the national trend applies. custodia galaxy tab a 7 0 But first, some comments:

The Republican takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives has been predicted for weeks by just about every TV pundit worth his/her pancake makeup. The polls that seem to verify those predictions have not brought out the best from both sides. When we’ve published a poll showing a somewhat surprising result in favor of a Republican, we get calls from Democrat True Believers accusing us of the everything from being partisan hacks to having carnal knowledge of a Budweiser Clydesdale. (Our favorite: the guy who called and asked if “youse guys are former members of the Ice Capades?“) Even more disturbing are those Republicans who called thanking us for “making sure the polls come out in favor of the good guys.” Sigh. custodia tablet samsung a 2016 Let’s make one thing clear: the numbers are the numbers. We don’t have a dog in any of these hunts. We’ve compared notes with pollsters who are aligned with groups on both sides of the fence, and there is consensus that some of these districts are notoriously hard to poll, and turnout can change everything. If our numbers are wrong in any given race, it’s because we’ve failed in an honest effort to measure public opinion, not because someone cooked the books. custodia samsung s8 nera There…we feel better now. On with the numbers.

All of the following automated polls were conducted on Sunday, October 31. All calls were made to likely voters. custodia tablet 10 5 samsung Margins of error are all around 3%. In the final week’s polls, we do not offer an opportunity to selected “undecided” as an option.

Illinois 8Melissa Bean (D)45.74%
773 responsesJoe Walsh (R)48.72%
Bill Scheurer (G)5.54%
Illinois 10Dan Seals (D)45.51%
861 responsesRobert Dold (R)54.49%
Illinois 11Debbie Halvorson (D)44.90%
829 responsesAdam Kinzinger (R)55.10%
Illinois 14Bill Foster (D)45.34%
784 responsesRandy Hultgren (R)50.38%
Dan Kairis (G)4.21%
Illinois 17Phil Hare (D)43.74%
1,103 responsesBobby Schilling (R)51.77%
Roger Davis (G)4.49%
The most intriguing result to us Illinois 8. Since 2004, Democrat Melissa Bean has repeatedly proved to be a winner in this district which many consider to be the most Republican-leaning area from the last redistricting. custodia solare samsung Bean defeated beleaguered Congressman Phil Crane to win the seat, and has held on since. This time out she ran a late, but aggressive and expensive campaign against Republican Joe Walsh who did not have the resources to respond. Almost as intriguing is Illinois 14, where cerebral Democrat Bill Foster dwarfed Republican Randy Hultgren in spending. Hultgren’s plow-horse response, though, may be enough to win the day in the district that was formerly held by Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.