[box type=”info”] We continue our polls in Midwestern states today with our home base—Illinois—and races in Michigan. [/box]

Illinois: Everything old is new again

Governor Pat Quinn has made a career out of proving those who dismiss his chances in political races wrong. Earlier this year, most pundits outside of Illinois had Quinn high on their likely-to-be-dumped lists. custodia s2 samsung The reasons were logical: the Illinosi lags behind other Midwestern neighbors in economic recovery, has the highest pension debt in the nation and continues to lose jobs to greener economic pastures. Enter Republican Bruce Rauner, a highly successful investment professional with deep pockets and an in-your-face promise to “shake up Springfield.” Conventional wisdom dictated that Quinn was in serious trouble. But Rauner had a much tougher Primary than expected thanks partially to a successful campaign by teachers unions to encourage crossover votes, and Quinn has since seemed to hit his stride earlier than usual in the race. Many assumed that Rauner would launch a shock-and-awe level attack that would bury Quinn, but his campaign seems has yet to overwhelm observers or voters. And Rauner’s purposeful penchant for avoiding details has left more questions than answers. Rauner had a 10-12 point lead a few weeks ago. With Quinn hitting his stride and Rauner stumbling a bit, what do the voters think? We asked more than 1,400 likely voters on September 18-19 the following question: If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner or Libertarian Chad Grimm? Poll type: Automated - Date: 9/18-19/2014 - Participants: 1,418 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

 Pat QuinnBruce RaunerChad GrimmUndecided
ALL VOTERS41%44%6%9%
After holding a double-digit lead a few weeks ago, the gap narrows…just as it did four years ago when Republican State Senator Bill Brady led Quinn by 10 points a month out from the election only to lose a relatively close race. Despite running a state that’s home to massive debt, terribly low job creation rates, and a pension system that has almost single-handedly lead to a credit rating close to “non-investment grade”, Pat Quinn has pulled within the margin of error. There is time left, and Bruce Rauner has the wherewithal to unleash the hounds with a wave of his checkbook, but the ticking of the clock is growing louder every day. samsung s8 custodia slim

Michigan: Who goes first?

Who’s in more trouble, Brady Hoke or Governor Rick Snyder? At least Governor Snyder didn’t lose to Notre Dame on national television…or get humiliated by a team nicknamed The Utes. As to which individual gets to keep his job in 2015, that one’s still TBD. Republican Governor Rick Snyder has found himself in the middle of a re-election dogfight with Democratic former Congressman Mark Schauer. Schauer, who’s also a former state lawmaker in Michigan, is a seasoned campaign veteran who casts himself as a pro-middle class candidate. It should be noted that no first-term Michigan governor has lost a re-election bid in more than 100 years. Snyder, who some say waited too late in the game to hit the airwaves with his pro-business campaign messaging, seems to be banking on the fact that Mr. custodia tablet samsung e silicone Schauer will run out of funds before this thing is all said and done. But blood in the water usually leads to increased contributions, so that may be a false hope. To this point, all we know is this one is close…real close: Poll type: Automated - Date: 9/18-19/2014 - Participants: 1,182 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

 Rick SnyderMark SchauerMary BuzumaMark McFarlinPaul HomeniukUndecided
ALL VOTERS43%43%2%1%1%10%
Michigan Senate In the same poll as above, we asked Michigan voters their views on the race for U.S. Senate. Senate forecasts small and large have given the GOP an edge heading into this November’s election. The mildly blue state of Michigan may just buck that trend. custodia samsung galaxy young In the race for an open seat, Democratic candidate Congressman Gary Peters has held a consistent lead over Republican candidate Terri Lynn Land since April. custodia tastiera samsung s2 Despite being a GOP stalwart throughout most of the 20th century, Michigan has been reliably Democratic since 1992, and all things considered, it seems that trend will continue.

A steep climb

The ballyhooed union crossover vote in Illinois’ Republican Primary is going to find a steep climb in tomorrow’s Primary Election according to our latest tracking poll. custodia samsung s8 led Last night, we ran our usual automated tracker where we asked likely Republican voters to verify their intention to vote in the Primary following by their choice for governor. Here are those results: Poll type: Automated - Date: 3/16/2014 - Participants: 1,126 Likely GOP Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

Bill Brady19.35%
Kirk Dillard27.36%
Bruce Rauner44.24%
Dan Rutherford9.04%
Frankly, no big surprise in these numbers. Bruce Rauner has been maintaining a sizable lead despite an onslaught of negative ads against him. custodia galaxy note 3 Kirk Dillard’s numbers continue to improve, and the vaunted crossover vote looms. But let’s look at just how much of a challenge Dillard has to catch up. galaxy note 4 custodia The following chart shows results based on both 750,000 and 800,000 voters turnout models. custodia samsung s8 plus 360 gradi It also shows how many crossover votes it would take to catch up.
GOP turnout:750,000800,000
To catch Rauner:126,600135,040
That many votes represents a whole lotta love the unions have to generate for their crossover effort. Nothing of this scope has ever been accomplished in Illinois. custodia silicone per samsung j3 2016 Still, there may be enough crossover to move numbers tomorrow. custodia samsung s7 edge torro But a few won’t be enough.


A report today that some Illinois unions had pulled their anti-Bruce Rauner ads from the airwaves because they had “accomplished their goal” caused a bit of stir among hardcore political types. custodia protettiva samsung s9 plus The surprise move led many to speculate that the union brain trust now believes that Mr. Rauner’s numbers are sufficiently high that he cannot be beat in the Primary next week. Still, the Chicago Tribune recently published results from their second poll which led some to believe that Kirk Dillard still has a fighting chance. custodia j7 2017 samsung opcaca And Capitol Fax reported that Mr. custodia tablet samsung con cerniera Dillard has recently received $400,000 from teacher unions. Is this still a ball game? Since this is Tracking Tuesday at We Ask America, we decided to not only run our tracker but to also take away voters’ opportunity to say they’re undecided–a move we usually take when we’re within a week of the election. So, after we asked participants to verify their registration and intent to vote in the Republican Primary, we asked this: If the Republican Primary Election for governor were held today–and you HAD to choose a candidate–for whom would you vote? Here are their responses: Poll type: Automated - Date: 3/11/2014 - Participants: 1,235 Likely GOP Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.90%

 Bill BradyKirk DillardBruce RaunerDan Rutherford
ALL VOTERS18.90%25.76%46.46%8.88%
BY GENDER****************************
We’ll post some more crosstabs on this tomorrow morning. custodia j 7 samsung Clearly, it would take an enormous shift in the political universe’s primordial ooze for anyone in the field to catch Bruce Rauner. The big chunk of cash unions spent against him on negative ads may have had an effect on his long-term viability, but the Republican voting universe isn’t buying it. custodia vetro samsung s7 edge We may take another look this race Sunday.

Slow down, Buckaroos

Our friend Rich Miller of Capitol Fax fame wrote today about the nature of some past elections to take unforeseen swerves in the road. Since a number of people have contacted us about that very subject, and about whether our latest poll for the Illinois GOP governor’s race is “projectable” (meaning, can those results mathematically be manipulated to project the final outcome) we decided to post this analysis. The need to jump to conclusions should be avoided here, and we feel compelled present the following. Can poll results be projected? Maybe, but slow down, Buckaroos. As Capitol Fax pointed out, Illinois has a history of producing big shifts of opinion in its collective political thinking—and it can happen quickly. First, take a look at the chart below that plots our 2010 GOP tracking polls and then read the detail below it. (You can click on the chart to enlarge it.) 2010 Note that the dark red line representing undecided votes stops on January 27th, 2010. After that we started asked our participants to make a choice with an undecided option. In 2010, the Primary Election was held on February 2. custodia s9 samsung a libro Republican Kirk Dillard led the field going into the final week before the Primary. But Andy McKenna had been pounding Dillard and Jim Ryan with a huge TV buy of negative ads for weeks and Dillard’s progress slowed. custodia tab galaxy s2 Finally, after untold negative ads slapping the Hinsdale State Senator around, Dillard finally dipped in the polls, as did Ryan. At the same time, Bill Brady was largely ignored by the hoi polloi. samsung galaxy j3 2016 custodia cover case His downstate ads were modest in rating points, but spoke directly to a Republican base that was clearly peering across the horizon to look for an answer. In racing terms, circumstances put Brady in an ideal position to “draft” behind the frontrunners until the final lap. custodia j5 samsung 2017 From Jan. 27 to Feb. 1, the dynamic changed dramatically. Brady caught Dillard at the end line with a photo finish. Our Election Eve poll captured that and we duly reported our results to an incredulous audience. The next day they were believers. Can someone make those kinds of gains again? You bet they can, and—ironically—it may be Dillard who is best positioned to do so this time around. samsung a8 custodia ultrasottile But the dynamic is very different now. Both Dillard and Brady are getting pounded on social media, online ads, radio and TV courtesy of Mr. Rauner. The fourth candidate—State Treasurer Dan Rutherford—is trailing at a distance. A hypothetical ten-point jump in the polls by Dillard simply wouldn’t get him close enough unless it was accompanied by a free fall by Rauner. Unions No one here is sloughing off union claims that they’re asking their members to pull Republican ballots and vote for Dillard. They may even have a fair amount of success with that program. The problem is the steep angle of the hill they’re trying to climb. After we encouraged you to not project poll findings, we’re going to do just that. But we think you’ll understand why we’re ignoring our suggestion when you see the following. Below is a chart showing what the final outcome of the Illinois GOP Primary race for governor would be based on our latest tracking poll. If you assume a modest 750,000 Republican voter turnout, the chart shows you how many votes those percentages would translate into for each candidate in the Primary. Finally, we show you how many votes it would take to catch Bruce Rauner. Here’s the chart: Screen Shot 2014-03-06 at 3.40.46 PM So if nothing else changes, unions would have to find more than a quarter million voters who are willing to 1) pull a Republican ballot; and 2) vote for Kirk Dillard. Partisan voters often find it very difficult to pull an enemy ballot. Finding 250,000+ people to do so is a Herculean task. Of course, monitoring that situation is relatively easy, and you can bet the We Ask America gnomes will keep their beady eyes on that, especially in Cook County. With the dynamics involved, predicting the precise outcome of the Illinois GOP Primary for governor is like trying to put together a jigsaw puzzle in a hurricane. But for now, Mr. Rauner’s likeness is still on the box.

The Walking Dread

Democratic Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is a survivor. custodia galaxy tab3 con tastiera He has had his political obituary written a number of times in his career only to avoid the zombie apocalypse through incredible tenacity, hard work and a bit of luck. But Pat Quinn will face more than just a Republican opponent in the fall election; he has some Democratic family matters to confront. His role in pushing for public pension reforms was not exactly warmly received by state employees and retirees, and his continuous gadfly approach to governing takes its toll. custodia trasparente samsung s9 plus But surely he can count on the full backing of his fellow Democrats when it’s crunch time, right? Well, maybe. galaxy xcover 4 custodia To see how welcome Gov. Quinn will be at the next family picnic, we asked 1,162 likely Democratic voters two questions. Here’s the first: In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is doing? Here are the results to that question: Poll type: Automated - Date: 3/4-5/2014 - Participants: 1,262 Likely Dem. Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.90%

OK…nothing too surprising above. Not great, but OK. Then, we asked them this: Do you agree, or disagree with the following statement? “I will probably vote to re-elect Pat Quinn as governor no matter who is running against him in the fall.” Here are those results:
Whoa…a third of likely Democratic voters disagreed with a fairly mildly written re-elect question, and another 16% aren’t so sure. The crosstab below showing those responses to the re-elect question by LOCATION tells the story:
Suburban Cook57.91%29.86%12.23%
  Now, political families fight, but when push comes to shove they tend to stick together. Still, having a third of likely Democratic voters say they’re not sure they’ll vote for an incumbent governor is a swift kick in the patootie. samsung galaxy note 8 custodia Will those miffed voters come back home in the fall? Probably. But depending on how deep voters’ walking dread goes, some may not vote at all and a handful may vote against Gov. Quinn because they’ve had it with his schtick. custodia samsung tab a 2017 Still, it’s likely Quinn will face Bruce Rauner whose attacks on union bosses will make Quinn the lesser of two evils for some. custodia samsung s8 plus a specchio But Mr.

IL GOP Gov Tracker

Tonight we once again release our weekly tracking poll results for the Illinois GOP Primary for governor just 14 days before Election Day. custodia samsung tab e 9 6 spedizione gratuita We know these results must be anxiously awaited since just a few minutes after we tweeted that we’re going to publish our findings tonight we received our first complaint arguing about the results…four hours before we asked anyone a question. custodia galaxy tab s3 tastiera At any rate, custodia doppia per samsung tonight 1,262 Illinois voters who confirmed their intention to vote in the GOP Primary this simple question: If the Republican Primary Election for governor were held today, custodia samsung galaxy a5 for whom would you vote? Here are their responses: Poll type: Automated - Date: 3/4/2014 - Participants: 1,262 Likely GOP Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.85%

 Bill BradyKirk DillardBruce RaunerDan RutherfordUndecided
BY GENDER***********************************
BY AGE***********************************
BY LOCATION***********************************
Sub. Cook11.67%18.57%41.14%3.23%25.39%
Click on graph below to enlarge: Untitled   As the results show, custodia samsung a3 6 Bruce Rauner continues to dominate the others by a wide margin. With only two weeks to go, custodia galaxy tab a6 samsung it will be extraordinarily difficult for any contender to close the gap. Absent a Richter-scale scandal or some kind of proof of certain unions’ claim that they can talk their members into pulling GOP ballots for Dillard (more on that tomorrow), custodia samsung galaxy tab 10 1 Mr. Rauner’s lead should hold.

3rd Time Around

We Ask America jumps back into conducting public polls this week in a handful of Midwestern states…starting with one of our favorites: Wisconsin. Wisconsin’s political scene simply doesn’t follow conventional wisdom. The state’s electorate, which has earned a reputation of progressive and independent thought, have endured a somewhat tumultuous recent political past. Current Gov. Scott Walker (R) promised when he was first elected in 2010 to be a force to be reckoned with. custodia samsung a5 2015 a libro That was an understatement. custodia samsung galaxy tab 4 7 0 in silicone Supporters liked Walker’s take-no-prisoner approach to challenging public-sector unions, but his actions enflamed his detractors who came fairly close to recalling him in 2012. Walker prevailed, but continues to be a galvanizing national figure. custodia samsung s8 plus nero This time around, Walker faces Democrat Mary Burke, a former TREK bicycle executive and State Secretary of Commerce. Burke doesn’t provide the same type of easy contrast that Walker was able to use in the past against his opponents. The race has gotten increasingly nasty, with much of the clamor coming from outside political forces. samsung j7 custodia Like all governors from both political parties, Walker ticks people off daily with decisions he must make as a sitting chief executive…although he seems to have mitigated his bull-in-the-china-shop ways. But Walker fell short on some lofty job-creation promises–perhaps due to factors out of his control–and he’s wearing the collar for that among other challenges he faces. custodia samsung s9 armor Burke isn’t getting by easy either. Since she has a record of public service, political pathologists have found plenty of things to talk about from her past stint as Commerce Secretary and she’s getting labeled as an outsourcer for sending jobs to China at TREK. So, is Wisconsin prepared to elect Scott Walker for a third time in four years, or will Mary Burke be able to succeed where others have failed? We asked 1,170 likely voters whether they preferred Republican Scott Walker, Democrat Mary Burke or a third-party candidate for Wisconsin governor. custodia samsung tab a 10 1 bentoben Here’s what they said: Poll type: Automated - Date: 9/3/2014 - Participants: 1,170 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

All Voters44%48%2%6%
***BY PARTY***
With so much talk about the effect that President Obama had on the ballot in 2012, we followed up our head-to-head question asking whether they generally approve or disapprove of the job the President is doing. It could be an important factor for those of you in the election turnout pool.


Just as the weather in the Land of Lincoln turned unseasonably cold, the Illinois Republican Primary for governor has heated up, thanks largely to the apparent breakout of one candidate: political newcomer Bruce Rauner. Rauner–a highly successful investment executive–has parlayed his own deep pockets and ability to raise contributions from others into an ever-growing war chest. Although Illinois has regulations about how much can be raised and spent in a political campaign, the law allows a candidate with means to break through the spending cap. The only penalty is that ALL candidates are then allowed to spend beyond the so-called limits. custodia s5 samsung pelle Since Rauner is the the only Republican candidate who has demonstrated the ability to both self fund and raise big bucks from others, political reporters and pundits have been playing a guessing game of When Would Bruce Break The Cap? He did so about two weeks ago with a sizable statewide TV buy. custodia rigida samsung a3 2016 Before that buy, Rauner had spent a fair amount of money moving his name ID from nil to meh. custodia samsung s9 trasparente Still the others–State Senator Bill Brady (Bloomington), State Senator Kirk Dillard (Hinsdale) and State Treasurer Dan Rutherford (Pontiac)–haven’t been able to generate campaign funds sufficient to mount their own media campaigns and have instead had to rely on earned media and their high-quality resumes. So, for the past few months, tracking polls showed results based more on name recognition that forethought of voting intentions. So how would Rauner’s new spending spree affect voters? A recent independent poll by PPP published in Illinois’ preeminent political publication/blog Capitol Fax showed a surprising surge by Rauner, but had a smallish sample. So We Ask America decided to supersize that poll to see if Rauner could have really moved big numbers that quickly. samsung s8 custodia libro leone He did: Poll type: Automated - Date: 11/26/2013 - Participants: 1,233 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

 Bill BradyKirk DillardBruce RaunerDan RutherfordUndecided
BY GENDER***********************************
BY AGE***********************************
BY LOCATION***********************************
Sub. Cook18.70%8.65%31.57%10.69%30.39%
To put this into perspective, here’s a chart showing our tracking of this race since last May: GOPgovPOLLtrack   Any poll numbers that moves up that fast should, by all rights, be considered ethereal. Still, two separate independent polls now have shown the same thing: Rauner has moved serious numbers. And while both polls might only reflect an increase in name recognition, Bruce Rauner has the wherewithal to keep his foot on the gas well beyond this breakaway. Even if the numbers are in flux, it’s clear that GOP Primary voters are viewing Bruce Rauner as an acceptable messenger. Combine that with big bucks and you have a very tenuous situation for the challengers. custodia s8 samsung donna Mr.

Detroit aftermath

After saying in 2011 that Detroit bankruptcy wasn’t the option, the recent decision by Michigan Governor Rick Snyder to allow the City of Detroit to file for Chapter 9 default protection produced the usual array of politically motivated responses. custodia samsung s9 plus rosso Opponents screamed about his flip-flop, while supporters insisted that the CPA-trained governor simply had explored every other possibility before making the decision. Beyond Michigan’s borders, many are watching how the dramatic aftermath plays out; will this be a sad– but isolated–incident, or will it be a harbinger for other units of government that are drowning in red ink? Clearly, key to the debate is the ultimate decision about the pension benefits of city workers. Detroit is hardly alone in having horribly underfunded pensions for public workers. At risk is the financial future of thousands, and the eyes of the nation’s government and public-union leaders will be fixed on the drama that will certainly unfold in the near future. On the evenings of July 23-24, we called Michigan residents to determine, among other things, their views on these questions:

As you probably know, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder recently decided to go along with the decision to declare Detroit bankrupt. custodia note 3 samsung We’d like to know whether you generally APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of that decision.

      • Approve
      • Disapprove
      • Undecided

Does Gov. Snyder’s decision make you MORE LIKELY or LESS LIKELY to support him in next year’s election?

      • More likely
      • Less likely
      • Undecided

Detroit’s bankruptcy could possibly lead to a reduction of city workers’ retirement benefits in the future. custodia samsung tab e sm t561 We’d like to know which of the following statements comes closest to your view on the situation.

      • It’s unfortunate, but necessary to cut retirement benefit due to the financial situation.
      • There is no excuse to cut any benefits.
      • Benefits should have been cut even without bankruptcy.
      • None of these

To provide some context, we asked each participant whether or not their household included a public or private-sector union member, and we derived from our calling list if the participant lived in Detroit or not. custodia samsung a8 cuore Here are the basic weighted poll results: Poll type: Automated - Date: July 23-24, 2013 - Participants: 1,338 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.9%

Approve or Disapprove of Bankruptcy
Not Sure12%
More or Less Likely to support Gov. Snyder in 2014
More Likely41%
Less Likely42%
Not Sure17%
Bankruptcy Opinion
Unfortunate but Necessary29%
No Excuse39%
Cuts without Bankruptcy15%
None of These17%
Approve Bankruptcy by GENDER
ApproveDisapproveNot Sure
Approve Bankruptcy by PARTY AFFILIATION
ApproveDisapproveNot Sure
Approve Bankruptcy by AGE BRACKET
Approve Bankruptcy by ETHNIC ORIGIN
ApproveDisapproveNot Sure
African American46%44%10%
Approve Bankruptcy by UNION HOUSEHOLD
ApproveDisapproveNot Sure
Public Sector49%39%12%
Non-Public Sector47%45%8%
No Union60%26%14%
Approve Bankruptcy by LOCATION
ApproveDisapproveNot Sure
Rest of State58%30%12%
The results were weighted to adjust for any over-/under-sampling through our proprietary 65 different fields of criteria. custodia tablet samsung t580 We’ll post the full set of data with other crosstabs soon. The most interesting result to us was the comparison of those who favored the governor’s decision to proceed with bankruptcy (55%) to those who say it will make them more likely or less likely to support him in future elections (split decision 41% more likely, 42% less likely). custodia galaxy 8 plus As the twists and turns of the upcoming proceedings unwind, those numbers are bound to change. custodia samsung s9 ringke And we’re bound to be watching.

Treading Water

Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker has been a lighting rod since first being elected in 2010. Walker’s take-no-prisoner persona early in his first term exacerbated the polarizing reforms he promoted and muscled through the state legislature. The subsequent highly charged political atmosphere led to a hard-fought recall election which Walker won handily. In speeches, Walker continues to somewhat rue his role in the rhetoric that dominated the period and has become a sought-after speaker for pro-smaller government and business groups around the country. In a recent event in Illinois where Walker was the keynote speaker, the crowd — which was made up of business types who are accustomed to oceans of state government red ink — literally gasped when Walker touted turning Wisconsin’s big deficit into a tidy surplus. custodia galaxy s7 cellularline But everyone likes other states’ leaders, and Walker isn’t traveling the nation to talk about the things that aren’t working so well for the state. His opponent will cherry pick statistics that paint a gloomy picture of Wisconsin (for example, employment numbers aren’t great), but Walker’s successes are viewed by many as genuine and he’s good at projecting the glass as half full. Clearly, the effect of Walker’s reforms and accomplishments will not be fully measured before next year’s election. custodia samsung s8 cellular line With Wisconsin’s economy viewed as “treading water” and the discontent from last year’s political wars still fresh in the minds of voters, how will the public view Scott Walker now? As with all governors in this series of polls, we asked likely Wisconsin voters a straightforward and simply worded question: “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing?” Here are the results:

Poll type: Automated - Date: May 8-9, 2013 - Participants: 1,081 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%
BY GENDER************
BY PARTY ID************

As we pointed out in yesterday’s initial poll in in this series, these approval ratings are probably as much a measure of voters’ opinion of state government as a guide to re-electability. custodia samsung galaxi a3 Gov. cover samsung s7 custodia Walker’s overall approval rating now is nearly identical to what we saw in July, 2011 although he seems to have lost some mojo among Independents. Yet, Walker survived a nasty recall attempt and has lived to see some positive results from his efforts. custodia in pelle samsung j5 2016 Assuming he runs again, he’ll face a Democratic opponent who won’t have President Obama leading the ticket. Still, many Wisconsin voters continue to carry the scars of the uncivil war that broke out after Walker’s ramrod approach to his reforms blew up. We believe that–once again–Wisconsin will be among the most politically interesting states to watch in 2014.