Big Cheese

Wisconsin has experienced more than its fair share of political melodrama this year. The rancorous recall election aimed at Republican Governor Scott Walker in June was followed by a spirited Primary — especially in the GOP Senate race where former Gov. Tommy Thompson overcame an assault from outside money. He’ll face Democrat Tammy Baldwin in November. Tammy & Tommy…does anyone else have a hankering for a Beach Blanket movie?

Some pundits believe that Walker’s survival in the June recall puts the Dairy State in play for Mitt Romney this fall. Others think that Walker’s win simply doesn’t provide a strong political metaphor that may be applied to the presidential election. There’s still time for both sides to make their points, but for now we’re seeing a widening gap in Wisconsin: [Weighting was applied to correct for over-/undersampling.]

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 20-23, 2012 - Participants: 1,238 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%
PRESIDENTBarack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
ALL VOTERS 52.5% 41.0% 1.2% 5.3%
GOP ONLY9.0%87.4%0.8%2.8%
DEM ONLY90.1%6.5%0.5%2.9%
IND ONLY50.4%37.6%2.1%9.9%
SENATE Tommy Thompson Tammy Baldwin Undecided
ALL VOTERS 40.4% 51.8% 7.8%
GOP ONLY84.7%9.5%5.8%
DEM ONLY8.0%86.7%5.3%
IND ONLY35.9%53.1%11.0%

We included Libertarian Gary Johnson to measure general support for third-party candidates. Note that we asked each participant if they consider themselves to be a Republican, Democrat or Independent voter. In this case, the split was 31% GOP / 32% Democrat / 37% Independents.

Obviously, things can change a lot in October. But for now, Barack Obama is the Big Cheese in Wisconsin.