By request: Illinois CD 17

By a landslide, the most-requested poll I receive emails on is Illinois’s 17th Congressional District. Long a Democratic stronghold of former Congressman Lane Evans, CD 17 is one of the…well…squirreliest-drawn districts in the nation. It meanders around the western edge of the Land of Lincoln, occasionally jutting out like an amoeba getting ready to divide. The largest population in this district can be found in the Quad Cities (Rock Island/Moline), Quincy, and bits of Springfield and Decatur. The Quad Cities is decidedly blue collar, conservative and Democratic.

Democrat Phil Hare, Lane Evan’s former CoS, has held this seat since 2006, but has run into a bit of trouble as of late. A rather unfortunate quote regarding the U.S. Constitution started the ball rolling downhill for Hare, but few thought he’d be pushed hard by Republican pizzeria-owner Bobby Schilling. To complicate matters for Hare, the district has a Green Party candidate, Roger Davis.

Let’s see the poll results:

Illinois CD 17

Date of Poll: September 8, 2010
Participants: 1,250
Margin of Error: ±2.77%
(D) Phil Hare38.41%9.60%73.09%22.63%
(R) Bobby Schilling41.15%79.66%8.75%44.41%
(G) Roger Davis3.85%1.13%2.84%7.82%

There appears to be a reason so many had urged polling in Illinois 17. The fact that the very conservative Schilling is in a statistical tie with Hare is once again an indication of change–especially among Independent voters.  It’s impossible from this poll to measure where the Green Party’s Roger Davis is pulling his nearly 4% — but that slice of the pie may have a huge impact on the final outcome in November.