Mayoral X-tabs

The cross tabulation of polling data often provides key insights into what’s behind an electorate’s thinking.  True political nerds love to digest such informational nuggets because of the potential for real insight they provide. In the case of Tuesday’s Chicago mayoral poll, the cross-tabs show two blinding glimpses of the obvious: this race is up for grabs, and Mayor Emanuel’s blessing won’t help the Chosen One much.  Of course, Emanuel’s millions in potential campaign contributions and the army of insiders who have a stake in the outcome is another matter all together.

You can view/download the full report with demographic cross-tabs HERE.

Observations:

  • Younger voters led the pack in saying that Mayor Emanuel’s endorsement would have a negative impact on their selection. A whopping 55% of the 18-24 age bracket  and 51% of the 25-34 age bracket said they would be less likely to support a candidate hand-picked by Emanuel.
  • Hispanic voters were the leading ethnic group to oppose any pick by Emanuel: 57% gave a negative response to that question.
  • Usually, there is some kind of minor gender difference in questions such as Choice for Mayor. The two candidates with the highest returns (it’s WAY too early to use the term front runners) — Garry McCarthy and Willie Wilson — had exactly the same percentage of supporters among men and women. Unusual, but not particularly predictive.

We’ll be back with another Chicago mayoral poll after things shake out a bit. This election is going to be one of the most closely watched mayoral races in the nation.

IL Turnout Tool

With pollsters split on the Illinois governor’s race, it’s important to remember how regional turnout can move election results fairly dramatically in the Land of Lincoln. custodia a libro samsung a 5 2017 To illustrate that point, we developed an online turnout effect calculator to allow those who possess both political tendencies and way too much time on their hands a chance to play the with different turnout scenarios. The calculator splits Illinois into four regions (Chicago, Suburban Cook Co., Collar Counties and Downstate) and we preset the turnout in each of those areas to match the 2010 midterm turnout. Of course, you can change those anyway you want. We’ve also populated the vote splits with our latest poll results, but you can wipe that out and put your own numbers. custodia samsung tab a 2017 After you twiddle the numbers, click the submit button to see what it does to the final results. custodia galaxy s7 portafoglio calcio The whole thing is designed to fit on an iPad, and we included a RESET button to put all the numbers back to presets. custodia samsung j5 2017 oro With the Illinois governor’s race as tight as it seems, this shows how tweaking a few numbers effects the final result. galaxy j3 2017 custodia Instructions are on the page (just click on the INSTRUCTIONS button).

Slow down, Buckaroos

Our friend Rich Miller of Capitol Fax fame wrote today about the nature of some past elections to take unforeseen swerves in the road. Since a number of people have contacted us about that very subject, and about whether our latest poll for the Illinois GOP governor’s race is “projectable” (meaning, can those results mathematically be manipulated to project the final outcome) we decided to post this analysis. The need to jump to conclusions should be avoided here, and we feel compelled present the following. Can poll results be projected? Maybe, but slow down, Buckaroos. As Capitol Fax pointed out, Illinois has a history of producing big shifts of opinion in its collective political thinking—and it can happen quickly. First, take a look at the chart below that plots our 2010 GOP tracking polls and then read the detail below it. (You can click on the chart to enlarge it.) 2010 Note that the dark red line representing undecided votes stops on January 27th, 2010. After that we started asked our participants to make a choice with an undecided option. In 2010, the Primary Election was held on February 2. custodia s9 samsung a libro Republican Kirk Dillard led the field going into the final week before the Primary. But Andy McKenna had been pounding Dillard and Jim Ryan with a huge TV buy of negative ads for weeks and Dillard’s progress slowed. custodia tab galaxy s2 Finally, after untold negative ads slapping the Hinsdale State Senator around, Dillard finally dipped in the polls, as did Ryan. At the same time, Bill Brady was largely ignored by the hoi polloi. samsung galaxy j3 2016 custodia cover case His downstate ads were modest in rating points, but spoke directly to a Republican base that was clearly peering across the horizon to look for an answer. In racing terms, circumstances put Brady in an ideal position to “draft” behind the frontrunners until the final lap. custodia j5 samsung 2017 From Jan. 27 to Feb. 1, the dynamic changed dramatically. Brady caught Dillard at the end line with a photo finish. Our Election Eve poll captured that and we duly reported our results to an incredulous audience. The next day they were believers. Can someone make those kinds of gains again? You bet they can, and—ironically—it may be Dillard who is best positioned to do so this time around. samsung a8 custodia ultrasottile But the dynamic is very different now. Both Dillard and Brady are getting pounded on social media, online ads, radio and TV courtesy of Mr. Rauner. The fourth candidate—State Treasurer Dan Rutherford—is trailing at a distance. A hypothetical ten-point jump in the polls by Dillard simply wouldn’t get him close enough unless it was accompanied by a free fall by Rauner. Unions No one here is sloughing off union claims that they’re asking their members to pull Republican ballots and vote for Dillard. They may even have a fair amount of success with that program. The problem is the steep angle of the hill they’re trying to climb. After we encouraged you to not project poll findings, we’re going to do just that. But we think you’ll understand why we’re ignoring our suggestion when you see the following. Below is a chart showing what the final outcome of the Illinois GOP Primary race for governor would be based on our latest tracking poll. If you assume a modest 750,000 Republican voter turnout, the chart shows you how many votes those percentages would translate into for each candidate in the Primary. Finally, we show you how many votes it would take to catch Bruce Rauner. Here’s the chart: Screen Shot 2014-03-06 at 3.40.46 PM So if nothing else changes, unions would have to find more than a quarter million voters who are willing to 1) pull a Republican ballot; and 2) vote for Kirk Dillard. Partisan voters often find it very difficult to pull an enemy ballot. Finding 250,000+ people to do so is a Herculean task. Of course, monitoring that situation is relatively easy, and you can bet the We Ask America gnomes will keep their beady eyes on that, especially in Cook County. With the dynamics involved, predicting the precise outcome of the Illinois GOP Primary for governor is like trying to put together a jigsaw puzzle in a hurricane. But for now, Mr. Rauner’s likeness is still on the box.