Last week it looked like Nebraska Republican Attorney General Jon Bruning’s shrinking, but sizable lead in the U.S. Senate Primary might be enough to put him over the top. Then we noticed this article reporting that TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts had spearheaded a controversial set of TV ads questioning Bruning’s character while praising one of his main rivals, state legislator Deb Fischer. Word from ground forces hinted that the ads were gaining traction, so we deemed it a good reason to revisit the Cornhusker State again. The results:

It would appear that Bruning has a real problem here. The ads (which calls the State Attorney General’s ethics and investment history into question) are being vehemently fought by Bruning’s campaign, although the main point of contention appears to be whether or not the Rickett-backed group illegally coordinated their messaging with the Fischer campaign. In the meantime, Fischer has been gaining ground through some key endorsements.

While this one isn’t over, Bruning now appears to be in the fight of his life.

In the Midwest, it’s not easy to find a more polarizing figure than Republican Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. In a state where bold ideas are often rewarded, Walker’s slash-and-burn rhetoric during his first months in office resulted in bringing national attention to his administration’s aggressive fiscal reforms while stirring a hornet’s nest of resentment from public unions and others who felt he went too far. Walker soon became the Poster Boy (good and bad) for partisan views fueled by an economy in a tailspin.

Although he eventually toned down the rhetoric, Wisconsin’s loopy election laws make it comparatively easy to recall a governor, so Walker now faces a rematch against his 2010 opponent, Democrat Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett. Although Barrett has done his share of head butting with unions, labor’s choice is clear: they want Walker gone, and tons of their resources are being focused on that task to help counter the money flowing into pro-Walker forces from the right.

With that in mind, what better way to celebrate Mothers Day than by asking 1,219 likely Wisconsin voters who they plan to elect on June 5? Here are the results:

While other polls also show Walker in the lead, no one is suggesting that this race is anywhere near over. Walker only leads among self-described Independent voters by 47.6%-44.6%, and the underlying numbers seem fluid. Still, some of Walker’s detractors have been vocal about the fact that Walker was duly elected in 2010 and in most states would not be able to be challenged with a recall without greater cause. And a whopping 95% of those called said they plan to vote in the June 5th election which will have the national spotlight on it.

For now, that light is shining a bit brighter on Scott Walker.

After taking some time out to move to our new headquarters in Oak Brook, Illinois (many suggest the move was undertaken to put us closer to McDonald’s Hamburger University), We Ask America Polls™ is back with a look at the upcoming Nebraska GOP U.S. Senate primary. The race notched up the visibility ladder when Cornhusker Democrats convinced former Nebraska governor and senator, Bob Kerrey, to get back into the game. Despite being the target of a lot snark and snarl since his announcement, Kerrey enjoys huge name recognition and will intensify the spotlight on this race in the fall. But who will he face?

The six-way Republican primary has three main contenders:

• State Attorney General Jon Bruning,
  
• State Treasurer Don Stenberg, and
  
• State Senator Deb Fischer

Sharyn Elander (whose own website has a blank biography page, investment adviser Pat Flynn, and truck driver Spencer Zimmerman round out the field.

Third-term AG Bruning has been the frontrunner from the get-go, although he has come under some sharp-edged attacks by  groups such as Club for Growth that question his conservative credentials and instead prefer State Treasurer Stenberg. Interesting…especially in light of the fact that Bruning has been endorsed by Rick Santorum and others who lean way to the right. Early polls indicated that Bruning had an advantage of 30+ points, but those ongoing attack ads continue to erode that lead. (A smallish poll released by Deb Fischer’s campaign claims Bruning is down to a nine-point lead.)

With that in mind, we asked 1,152 Nebraska Republicans who confirmed their intentions to vote in the upcoming Primary Election who they will support (we did not give them an option to say they were undecided). Here are the results:

Although he’s not quite enjoying the tsunami-esque lead he had weeks ago, Bruning continues to be the comfortable frontrunner. While polls are good at telling us who people favor, Election Day turnout still rules the roost, so either Stenberg or Fischer could–theoretically–make a move.

But they better hurry, because Bruning is about to put this one away.

We Ask America clearly has a soft spot for the dynamic electorate in this nation’s Dairy State. From the political brouhaha brought on by Gov. Scott Walker to the voters’ reactions visceral reaction to his programs, the Badgers are a spirited bunch that we love to poll.

Wisconsin’s GOP have sometimes been publicly painted as hard right with a broad brush tinted with Walker’s attempt to dismantle the state’s public-sector labor power base. But as we’ve pointed out before, the state’s electorate isn’t so easy to pigeon hole. And with the Walker re-call election looming, many are looking at tomorrow’s presidential primary as a harbinger of the current governor’s fate. Of course, the Republican Primary in Wisconsin is vitally important to the two presidential frontrunners as well, as Mitt Romney continues his efforts to be viewed as the inevitable winner, as Rick Santorum attempts to regain some of the mojo he exhibited elsewhere.

With that in mind, last night we asked likely GOP voters in Wisconsin who they will support in tomorrow’s primary:

Note: an intrepid reader contacted us pointing out that rounding the results to whole numbers produces a total of 101%. For those who like it even, here are the results to a tenth of a point: Gingrich: 14.8%; Paul: 15.8%; Romney: 38.7%; and Santorum: 30.7%.

Romney’s claim that a win in Wisconsin will give him the final push he needs to “easily” (his words) attain enough delegates to wrap up the nomination before the primary. His eight-point lead is not technically insurmountable, but the former Massachusetts governor seems to be inching closer to his goal.

Following the GOP race for Illinois’ 16th Congressional district the last few weeks would almost guarantee the onset of vertigo. The race features a classic confrontation between a veteran politician–Don Manzullo–against a young, talented upstart–Adam Kinzinger.

Kinzinger, who handily beat blue-dog Democrat Debbie Halvorson two years ago and has since impressed many, found himself without a political home when Illinois’ majority Democrats drew the new congressional map. About the only palpable option he had was to challenge the venerable Manzullo. At the time, it seemed to make sense as Manzullo was heavily rumored to be ready to retire. Even though Manzullo slow-rolled his decision, it was difficult for Kinzinger to get an operation cranked up in the 16th since Illinois’ GOP congressional delegation agreed to a court challenge of the new map. The lawsuit fizzled, leaving Kinzinger with a shorter time frame to mount a challenge against a newly re-focused Manzullo who had since decided he wanted to keep his job.

Early on in the campaign, Kinzinger had all the momentum. At one point not too long ago, we polled Kinzinger up by as much as 13 percent. That support, as the old expression says, may have been “a mile wide and an inch deep.” Manzullo and his campaign team have ferociously fought back to the point that the race is a dead heat. How close is it? We went out to the hundredth of a percentage point to show you:

Logic dictates that Manzullo has the momentum leading into Illinois’ March 20 Primary, but Kinzinger continues to surprise and impress many with his abilities, and may have a better GOTV effort overall. As in any race, estimates concerning turnout vary greatly depending on who’s handicapping the contest.

At any rate, it may be a very late night for the folks in Illinois 16.

It appears that a late surge in Tennessee by Mitt Romney has closed the early lead that Rick Santorum had just days ago.

Does the plot of this movie sound familiar to you?

While not enough people pay attention to the delegate-heavy Volunteer State (we plead guilty), this beautiful, politically sophisticated area of the nation is important in the election juggernaut. And Romney’s machine appears to have clawed the former Massachusetts governor back into the game after being reportedly down by double digits. (We doubt this had much effect on anything, but our favorite Tennessee campaign moment: Romney’s recitation of the lyrics from Disney’s Davy Crockett.)

Here are our findings from Sunday’s calls:

We picked up a thread of discussion by Santorum lamenting the continued presence of Newt Gingrich in the race–understandable if you buy into his logic that he would auto-import many of Gingrich’s diehards should the former Speaker drop out. But Gingrich is hanging in there (watch him in Oklahoma, too), and will undoubtedly be a factor on Super Tuesday.

Any of the top three GOP candidates can win in Tennessee. But if last night’s poll is accurate (or even close), Romney will have pulled off an impressive come-from-behind surge in the Volunteer State.

As America was gearing up to watch the Oscars, We Ask America was in the field in Michigan and Arizona asking likely Republican voters for the final time before Tuesday’s primaries asking voters for their choice for president. This time, we didn’t give participants an option to say they were undecided:

If the Primary Election for President were held today–and you HAD to make a choice–for whom would you vote?

Here’s what Michigan voters said:

And here’s what Arizona voters had to say:

It appears that Mitt Romney has Arizona tucked away…Michigan may be another story. While Romney has pulled out all the stops in his home state and seems poised for a come-from-behind victory, Rick Santorum has hung in against an onslaught of negative ads and a few gaffes of his own doing. If Santorum loses by a close margin, many will question Romney’s ability to close the ultimate deal after a less-than-stellar showing in the Wolverine State.

Of course, many of those saying that will be Santorum, Gingrich and Paul.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

Democrat Jesse Jackson, Jr. has had a bumpy ride the last few years. Beyond reported personal indiscretions that produced tabloid-ready headlines, Jackson has been under an ethics microscope for his role in an alleged scheme to raise funds for former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich in exchange for an appointment to Barack Obama’s Senate seat. The renegade head-of-hair Blago will soon be a guest of the federal prison system, but the probe into what happened continues. To that end, the Office of Congressional Ethics looked into Congressman Jackson’s actions during the Blagojevich escapade and concluded:

“There is probable cause to believe that Rep. Jackson either (1) directed a third-party to raise money for Gov. Blagojevich in exchange for appointing Rep. Jackson to (President Obama’s former) senate seat, or (2) had knowledge that…(an ally) would likely make such an offer… Jackson and his staff (used) staff resources both in Washington and Chicago…to mount a ‘public campaign’ to secure (his) appointment to the senate.”

Yeeouch.

Enter Debbie Halvorson, former State Senator and one-term Member of Congress who lost in 2010 to Republican Adam Kinzinger. The re-map of Illinois’ congressional districts gave Halvorson a fighting chance as the new 2nd District dipped into the south Chicagoland suburbs and Jackson continued to be a magnet for bad headlines. Halvorson’s party-line voting record that got her into some hot water in her old blue-collar conservative district is a better fit in Illinois 2′s ethnically diverse area. Plus, some super-PAC funds have been directed to her side.

So with all of Jackson’s problems and Halvorson’s advantages,  this certainly ought to be a barn burner of a race, right?

Not so much:

Clearly, the voters of Illinois’ 2nd Congressional District aren’t buying into conventional wisdom. We’ve included the Ethnic Origin breakdowns to show there is a definite Minority/White split of opinion. Of course there’s still time for Halvorson to reduce the gap, and if the 50+ percent of voters who are African American stay home on Primary Day (March 20), we may be in for a surprise.

But for now, Congressman Jackson appears ready to prove the naysayers wrong.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

We’ve had a number of requests for primary polls in some key congressional districts across the nation, and we kick off a brief series of these with a look into the Republican race in Illinois 16. CD16 was carved into a GOP-heavy district that pits longtime Congressman Don Manzullo against one-term wunderkind Adam Kinzinger. The new district cobbles together parts of Manzullo’s current 16th District, a portion of Kinzingers’ 11th and some new turf for both.

Kinzinger handily beat Blue Dog Democrat incumbent Debbie Halvorson in 2010 in a conservative blue-collar district after Halvorson voted in lockstep with her party’s agenda. True, 2010 was a good year for Republican in most places, but Kinzinger impressed many with his work ethic and Boy Scout image that has held up to scrutiny.

Manzullo first won office in 1992 by defeating one-term Democrat John Cox. He has been reelected seven more times, all by easy margins in this heavily Republican former district. Redistricting forced the perennial Congressman head-to-head with the upstart Kinzinger. Rumors swirled early that Manzullo was considering retirement due to family health concerns, but he eventually announced he’d run again in the newly redesigned district. Kinzinger–looking for a home since his district was carved up–set his sites on the 16th and hasn’t stopped campaigning since.

Most agree that whoever wins this primary will ease through the General Election, so we asked 1,395 likely Republican voters in Illinois 16 how they plan to vote. Here’s what they said:

A deeper look into where the responses to this poll came from reveals that Manzullo continues to lead comfortably in the areas he represented prior to the re-map, while young Adam Kinzinger is cleaning up in both his former area and the areas that are new to both candidates. As we always like to point out: a single poll in a given district should never be taken as a prediction of the inevitable. But the internal numbers–especially WHERE the responses came from–point to Kinzinger as the clear leader for now.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

Arizona presidential politics have been pretty darn predictable over the last 60 years. Except for 1996–when the Grand Canyon State gave the electoral nod to Bill Clinton–Arizona voters have selected Republican presidential candidates for the past six decades.

The state became the epicenter for the nation’s immigration debate when it passed tough new regulations (along with an executive order from Gov. Jan Brewer) that–among other things–expanded law enforcement’s parameters over what constitutes “reasonable suspicion”of  illegal immigrant status. Brewer became a pin cushion for those who disagreed with the state’s approach, and the issue continues to be a major force here. Some pundits are predicting that immigration could ultimately be the catalyst causing a win for a Democrat presidential candidate for only the second time since 1952.

Still, Arizona is certainly not a one-trick pony when it comes to issues of interest to the electorate, and GOP hopefuls believe voters here will stay the course in the fall.

With that in mind, we asked 1,155 likely GOP voters in Arizona the following main question:

If the Republican Primary Election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Here are the results:

While Mitt Romney may be enjoying a 10-point lead today (some say largely attributable to the sizable Mormon population in Arizona), it’s hard to ignore Rick Santorum’s impressive track record of moving up rapidly at times. Clearly, the attention that Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu’s controversy is creating is drawing the spotlight from the news cycles that would normally be focused on the GOP presidential hopefuls.

If (when?) Sheriff Babeau’s coverage dies down, there may be enough energy left over to move some numbers here.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.