A steep climb

The ballyhooed union crossover vote in Illinois’ Republican Primary is going to find a steep climb in tomorrow’s Primary Election according to our latest tracking poll. custodia samsung s8 led Last night, we ran our usual automated tracker where we asked likely Republican voters to verify their intention to vote in the Primary following by their choice for governor. Here are those results: Poll type: Automated - Date: 3/16/2014 - Participants: 1,126 Likely GOP Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

Bill Brady19.35%
Kirk Dillard27.36%
Bruce Rauner44.24%
Dan Rutherford9.04%
Frankly, no big surprise in these numbers. Bruce Rauner has been maintaining a sizable lead despite an onslaught of negative ads against him. custodia galaxy note 3 Kirk Dillard’s numbers continue to improve, and the vaunted crossover vote looms. But let’s look at just how much of a challenge Dillard has to catch up. galaxy note 4 custodia The following chart shows results based on both 750,000 and 800,000 voters turnout models. custodia samsung s8 plus 360 gradi It also shows how many crossover votes it would take to catch up.
DILLARD'S DILEMMA  
GOP turnout:750,000800,000
To catch Rauner:126,600135,040
That many votes represents a whole lotta love the unions have to generate for their crossover effort. Nothing of this scope has ever been accomplished in Illinois. custodia silicone per samsung j3 2016 Still, there may be enough crossover to move numbers tomorrow. custodia samsung s7 edge torro But a few won’t be enough.

Over?

A report today that some Illinois unions had pulled their anti-Bruce Rauner ads from the airwaves because they had “accomplished their goal” caused a bit of stir among hardcore political types. custodia protettiva samsung s9 plus The surprise move led many to speculate that the union brain trust now believes that Mr. Rauner’s numbers are sufficiently high that he cannot be beat in the Primary next week. Still, the Chicago Tribune recently published results from their second poll which led some to believe that Kirk Dillard still has a fighting chance. custodia j7 2017 samsung opcaca And Capitol Fax reported that Mr. custodia tablet samsung con cerniera Dillard has recently received $400,000 from teacher unions. Is this still a ball game? Since this is Tracking Tuesday at We Ask America, we decided to not only run our tracker but to also take away voters’ opportunity to say they’re undecided–a move we usually take when we’re within a week of the election. So, after we asked participants to verify their registration and intent to vote in the Republican Primary, we asked this: If the Republican Primary Election for governor were held today–and you HAD to choose a candidate–for whom would you vote? Here are their responses: Poll type: Automated - Date: 3/11/2014 - Participants: 1,235 Likely GOP Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.90%

 Bill BradyKirk DillardBruce RaunerDan Rutherford
ALL VOTERS18.90%25.76%46.46%8.88%
BY GENDER****************************
Female21.63%23.56%45.51%9.30%
Male15.33%28.63%47.71%8.33%
We’ll post some more crosstabs on this tomorrow morning. custodia j 7 samsung Clearly, it would take an enormous shift in the political universe’s primordial ooze for anyone in the field to catch Bruce Rauner. The big chunk of cash unions spent against him on negative ads may have had an effect on his long-term viability, but the Republican voting universe isn’t buying it. custodia vetro samsung s7 edge We may take another look this race Sunday.

The Walking Dread

Democratic Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is a survivor. custodia galaxy tab3 con tastiera He has had his political obituary written a number of times in his career only to avoid the zombie apocalypse through incredible tenacity, hard work and a bit of luck. But Pat Quinn will face more than just a Republican opponent in the fall election; he has some Democratic family matters to confront. His role in pushing for public pension reforms was not exactly warmly received by state employees and retirees, and his continuous gadfly approach to governing takes its toll. custodia trasparente samsung s9 plus But surely he can count on the full backing of his fellow Democrats when it’s crunch time, right? Well, maybe. galaxy xcover 4 custodia To see how welcome Gov. Quinn will be at the next family picnic, we asked 1,162 likely Democratic voters two questions. Here’s the first: In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is doing? Here are the results to that question: Poll type: Automated - Date: 3/4-5/2014 - Participants: 1,262 Likely Dem. Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.90%

Approve56.76%
Disapprove31.42%
Neutral11.83%
OK…nothing too surprising above. Not great, but OK. Then, we asked them this: Do you agree, or disagree with the following statement? “I will probably vote to re-elect Pat Quinn as governor no matter who is running against him in the fall.” Here are those results:
Agree49.63%
Disagree34.25%
Undecided16.11%
Whoa…a third of likely Democratic voters disagreed with a fairly mildly written re-elect question, and another 16% aren’t so sure. The crosstab below showing those responses to the re-elect question by LOCATION tells the story:
LocationAgreeDisagreeUndecided
Chicago53.34%26.26%20.40%
Suburban Cook57.91%29.86%12.23%
Collars51.57%34.35%14.08%
Downstate37.74%47.63%14.63%
  Now, political families fight, but when push comes to shove they tend to stick together. Still, having a third of likely Democratic voters say they’re not sure they’ll vote for an incumbent governor is a swift kick in the patootie. samsung galaxy note 8 custodia Will those miffed voters come back home in the fall? Probably. But depending on how deep voters’ walking dread goes, some may not vote at all and a handful may vote against Gov. Quinn because they’ve had it with his schtick. custodia samsung tab a 2017 Still, it’s likely Quinn will face Bruce Rauner whose attacks on union bosses will make Quinn the lesser of two evils for some. custodia samsung s8 plus a specchio But Mr.

IL GOP Gov Tracker

Tonight we once again release our weekly tracking poll results for the Illinois GOP Primary for governor just 14 days before Election Day. custodia samsung tab e 9 6 spedizione gratuita We know these results must be anxiously awaited since just a few minutes after we tweeted that we’re going to publish our findings tonight we received our first complaint arguing about the results…four hours before we asked anyone a question. custodia galaxy tab s3 tastiera At any rate, custodia doppia per samsung tonight 1,262 Illinois voters who confirmed their intention to vote in the GOP Primary this simple question: If the Republican Primary Election for governor were held today, custodia samsung galaxy a5 for whom would you vote? Here are their responses: Poll type: Automated - Date: 3/4/2014 - Participants: 1,262 Likely GOP Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.85%

 Bill BradyKirk DillardBruce RaunerDan RutherfordUndecided
ALL11.65%14.45%39.88%8.20%25.82%
BY GENDER***********************************
Women11.89%14.27%34.26%7.99%31.60%
Men11.39%14.65%46.07%8.42%19.48%
BY AGE***********************************
18-2411.93%5.03%27.63%14.94%40.47%
25-3411.93%17.26%52.08%5.29%9.45%
35-4419.19%25.21%23.42%8.96%23.22%
45-5410.89%12.80%36.43%5.71%34.17%
55-649.75%11.49%47.18%8.70%22.88%
65+10.88%15.12%39.59%8.59%25.81%
BY LOCATION***********************************
Chicago22.31%6.23%33.24%3.51%34.70%
Sub. Cook11.67%18.57%41.14%3.23%25.39%
Collars11.17%12.91%49.56%1.76%24.59%
Downstate11.21%14.60%34.25%13.84%26.10%
Click on graph below to enlarge: Untitled   As the results show, custodia samsung a3 6 Bruce Rauner continues to dominate the others by a wide margin. With only two weeks to go, custodia galaxy tab a6 samsung it will be extraordinarily difficult for any contender to close the gap. Absent a Richter-scale scandal or some kind of proof of certain unions’ claim that they can talk their members into pulling GOP ballots for Dillard (more on that tomorrow), custodia samsung galaxy tab 10 1 Mr. Rauner’s lead should hold.

3rd Time Around

We Ask America jumps back into conducting public polls this week in a handful of Midwestern states…starting with one of our favorites: Wisconsin. Wisconsin’s political scene simply doesn’t follow conventional wisdom. The state’s electorate, which has earned a reputation of progressive and independent thought, have endured a somewhat tumultuous recent political past. Current Gov. Scott Walker (R) promised when he was first elected in 2010 to be a force to be reckoned with. custodia samsung a5 2015 a libro That was an understatement. custodia samsung galaxy tab 4 7 0 in silicone Supporters liked Walker’s take-no-prisoner approach to challenging public-sector unions, but his actions enflamed his detractors who came fairly close to recalling him in 2012. Walker prevailed, but continues to be a galvanizing national figure. custodia samsung s8 plus nero This time around, Walker faces Democrat Mary Burke, a former TREK bicycle executive and State Secretary of Commerce. Burke doesn’t provide the same type of easy contrast that Walker was able to use in the past against his opponents. The race has gotten increasingly nasty, with much of the clamor coming from outside political forces. samsung j7 custodia Like all governors from both political parties, Walker ticks people off daily with decisions he must make as a sitting chief executive…although he seems to have mitigated his bull-in-the-china-shop ways. But Walker fell short on some lofty job-creation promises–perhaps due to factors out of his control–and he’s wearing the collar for that among other challenges he faces. custodia samsung s9 armor Burke isn’t getting by easy either. Since she has a record of public service, political pathologists have found plenty of things to talk about from her past stint as Commerce Secretary and she’s getting labeled as an outsourcer for sending jobs to China at TREK. So, is Wisconsin prepared to elect Scott Walker for a third time in four years, or will Mary Burke be able to succeed where others have failed? We asked 1,170 likely voters whether they preferred Republican Scott Walker, Democrat Mary Burke or a third-party candidate for Wisconsin governor. custodia samsung tab a 10 1 bentoben Here’s what they said: Poll type: Automated - Date: 9/3/2014 - Participants: 1,170 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

 WALKERBURKE3RD PARTYUNDECIDED
All Voters44%48%2%6%
***BY GENDER***
Women39%54%2%5%
Men49%43%2%6%
***BY PARTY***
Republicans90%6%2%2%
Democrats5%89%2%4%
Independents44%44%3%9%
With so much talk about the effect that President Obama had on the ballot in 2012, we followed up our head-to-head question asking whether they generally approve or disapprove of the job the President is doing. It could be an important factor for those of you in the election turnout pool.

Thankful

Just as the weather in the Land of Lincoln turned unseasonably cold, the Illinois Republican Primary for governor has heated up, thanks largely to the apparent breakout of one candidate: political newcomer Bruce Rauner. Rauner–a highly successful investment executive–has parlayed his own deep pockets and ability to raise contributions from others into an ever-growing war chest. Although Illinois has regulations about how much can be raised and spent in a political campaign, the law allows a candidate with means to break through the spending cap. The only penalty is that ALL candidates are then allowed to spend beyond the so-called limits. custodia s5 samsung pelle Since Rauner is the the only Republican candidate who has demonstrated the ability to both self fund and raise big bucks from others, political reporters and pundits have been playing a guessing game of When Would Bruce Break The Cap? He did so about two weeks ago with a sizable statewide TV buy. custodia rigida samsung a3 2016 Before that buy, Rauner had spent a fair amount of money moving his name ID from nil to meh. custodia samsung s9 trasparente Still the others–State Senator Bill Brady (Bloomington), State Senator Kirk Dillard (Hinsdale) and State Treasurer Dan Rutherford (Pontiac)–haven’t been able to generate campaign funds sufficient to mount their own media campaigns and have instead had to rely on earned media and their high-quality resumes. So, for the past few months, tracking polls showed results based more on name recognition that forethought of voting intentions. So how would Rauner’s new spending spree affect voters? A recent independent poll by PPP published in Illinois’ preeminent political publication/blog Capitol Fax showed a surprising surge by Rauner, but had a smallish sample. So We Ask America decided to supersize that poll to see if Rauner could have really moved big numbers that quickly. samsung s8 custodia libro leone He did: Poll type: Automated - Date: 11/26/2013 - Participants: 1,233 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

 Bill BradyKirk DillardBruce RaunerDan RutherfordUndecided
ALL18.10%10.30%26.27%16.61%28.71%
BY GENDER***********************************
Women18.90%9.52%22.98%16.74%31.85%
Men17.20%11.17%29.94%16.48%25.22%
BY AGE***********************************
18-2434.93%1.35%18.44%13.63%31.65%
25-3424.82%8.18%43.03%10.98%13.00%
35-4419.97%14.77%21.05%13.17%31.04%
45-5415.45%9.73%32.51%12.40%29.90%
55-6417.50%9.71%25.30%23.61%23.89%
65+17.13%10.90%24.03%16.09%31.84%
BY LOCATION***********************************
Chicago22.64%5.24%38.97%24.01%9.13%
Sub. Cook18.70%8.65%31.57%10.69%30.39%
Collars13.76%11.98%32.85%11.27%30.13%
Downstate20.27%10.11%19.73%21.24%28.64%
To put this into perspective, here’s a chart showing our tracking of this race since last May: GOPgovPOLLtrack   Any poll numbers that moves up that fast should, by all rights, be considered ethereal. Still, two separate independent polls now have shown the same thing: Rauner has moved serious numbers. And while both polls might only reflect an increase in name recognition, Bruce Rauner has the wherewithal to keep his foot on the gas well beyond this breakaway. Even if the numbers are in flux, it’s clear that GOP Primary voters are viewing Bruce Rauner as an acceptable messenger. Combine that with big bucks and you have a very tenuous situation for the challengers. custodia s8 samsung donna Mr.

Detroit aftermath

After saying in 2011 that Detroit bankruptcy wasn’t the option, the recent decision by Michigan Governor Rick Snyder to allow the City of Detroit to file for Chapter 9 default protection produced the usual array of politically motivated responses. custodia samsung s9 plus rosso Opponents screamed about his flip-flop, while supporters insisted that the CPA-trained governor simply had explored every other possibility before making the decision. Beyond Michigan’s borders, many are watching how the dramatic aftermath plays out; will this be a sad– but isolated–incident, or will it be a harbinger for other units of government that are drowning in red ink? Clearly, key to the debate is the ultimate decision about the pension benefits of city workers. Detroit is hardly alone in having horribly underfunded pensions for public workers. At risk is the financial future of thousands, and the eyes of the nation’s government and public-union leaders will be fixed on the drama that will certainly unfold in the near future. On the evenings of July 23-24, we called Michigan residents to determine, among other things, their views on these questions:


As you probably know, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder recently decided to go along with the decision to declare Detroit bankrupt. custodia note 3 samsung We’d like to know whether you generally APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of that decision.

      • Approve
      • Disapprove
      • Undecided

Does Gov. Snyder’s decision make you MORE LIKELY or LESS LIKELY to support him in next year’s election?

      • More likely
      • Less likely
      • Undecided

Detroit’s bankruptcy could possibly lead to a reduction of city workers’ retirement benefits in the future. custodia samsung tab e sm t561 We’d like to know which of the following statements comes closest to your view on the situation.

      • It’s unfortunate, but necessary to cut retirement benefit due to the financial situation.
      • There is no excuse to cut any benefits.
      • Benefits should have been cut even without bankruptcy.
      • None of these

To provide some context, we asked each participant whether or not their household included a public or private-sector union member, and we derived from our calling list if the participant lived in Detroit or not. custodia samsung a8 cuore Here are the basic weighted poll results: Poll type: Automated - Date: July 23-24, 2013 - Participants: 1,338 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.9%

Approve or Disapprove of Bankruptcy
Approve55%
Disapprove33%
Not Sure12%
More or Less Likely to support Gov. Snyder in 2014
More Likely41%
Less Likely42%
Not Sure17%
Bankruptcy Opinion
Unfortunate but Necessary29%
No Excuse39%
Cuts without Bankruptcy15%
None of These17%
CROSSTABS
Approve Bankruptcy by GENDER
ApproveDisapproveNot Sure
Female47%40%14%
Male65%25%10%
Approve Bankruptcy by PARTY AFFILIATION
ApproveDisapproveNot Sure
Republican73%16%10%
Democrat39%48%13%
Independent56%31%13%
Approve Bankruptcy by AGE BRACKET
ApproveDisapproveUndecided
18-2459%5%36%
25-3452%41%7%
35-4454%40%7%
45-5456%33%10%
55-6455%36%9%
65+54%30%17%
Approve Bankruptcy by ETHNIC ORIGIN
ApproveDisapproveNot Sure
African American46%44%10%
Asian62%12%25%
Hispanic33%36%31%
White57%31%12%
Other/Refused
Approve Bankruptcy by UNION HOUSEHOLD
ApproveDisapproveNot Sure
Public Sector49%39%12%
Non-Public Sector47%45%8%
No Union60%26%14%
Approve Bankruptcy by LOCATION
ApproveDisapproveNot Sure
Detroit20%65%15%
Rest of State58%30%12%
The results were weighted to adjust for any over-/under-sampling through our proprietary 65 different fields of criteria. custodia tablet samsung t580 We’ll post the full set of data with other crosstabs soon. The most interesting result to us was the comparison of those who favored the governor’s decision to proceed with bankruptcy (55%) to those who say it will make them more likely or less likely to support him in future elections (split decision 41% more likely, 42% less likely). custodia galaxy 8 plus As the twists and turns of the upcoming proceedings unwind, those numbers are bound to change. custodia samsung s9 ringke And we’re bound to be watching.

Treading Water

Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker has been a lighting rod since first being elected in 2010. Walker’s take-no-prisoner persona early in his first term exacerbated the polarizing reforms he promoted and muscled through the state legislature. The subsequent highly charged political atmosphere led to a hard-fought recall election which Walker won handily. In speeches, Walker continues to somewhat rue his role in the rhetoric that dominated the period and has become a sought-after speaker for pro-smaller government and business groups around the country. In a recent event in Illinois where Walker was the keynote speaker, the crowd — which was made up of business types who are accustomed to oceans of state government red ink — literally gasped when Walker touted turning Wisconsin’s big deficit into a tidy surplus. custodia galaxy s7 cellularline But everyone likes other states’ leaders, and Walker isn’t traveling the nation to talk about the things that aren’t working so well for the state. His opponent will cherry pick statistics that paint a gloomy picture of Wisconsin (for example, employment numbers aren’t great), but Walker’s successes are viewed by many as genuine and he’s good at projecting the glass as half full. Clearly, the effect of Walker’s reforms and accomplishments will not be fully measured before next year’s election. custodia samsung s8 cellular line With Wisconsin’s economy viewed as “treading water” and the discontent from last year’s political wars still fresh in the minds of voters, how will the public view Scott Walker now? As with all governors in this series of polls, we asked likely Wisconsin voters a straightforward and simply worded question: “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing?” Here are the results:


Poll type: Automated - Date: May 8-9, 2013 - Participants: 1,081 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%
 ApproveDisapproveNeutral/Uncertain
43.50%53.91%2.59%
BY GENDER************
Female41.42%56.39%2.19%
Male47.31%48.71%3.97%
BY PARTY ID************
Republicans86.88%12.41%0.70%
Democrats9.00%88.00%3.00%
Independents40.46%55.27%4.28%


As we pointed out in yesterday’s initial poll in in this series, these approval ratings are probably as much a measure of voters’ opinion of state government as a guide to re-electability. custodia samsung galaxi a3 Gov. cover samsung s7 custodia Walker’s overall approval rating now is nearly identical to what we saw in July, 2011 although he seems to have lost some mojo among Independents. Yet, Walker survived a nasty recall attempt and has lived to see some positive results from his efforts. custodia in pelle samsung j5 2016 Assuming he runs again, he’ll face a Democratic opponent who won’t have President Obama leading the ticket. Still, many Wisconsin voters continue to carry the scars of the uncivil war that broke out after Walker’s ramrod approach to his reforms blew up. We believe that–once again–Wisconsin will be among the most politically interesting states to watch in 2014.

Struggling

We Ask America Polls™ kicks off our 2013 public poll offering with a series of surveys focusing on governors who will be up for re-election next year. It’s important to note that this series of polls asks only one main question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job [governor’s name] is doing? To be fair, governors are often viewed by the public as the main symbol of state government, and these polls do not measure or predict how well a particular politician will do against any given opponent. custodia portafoglio per samsung galaxy j5 2017 The proof of that may be found in our first offering in our home state of Illinois: Democrat Pat Quinn. We’ve profiled Gov. custodia samsung s7 edge pelle Quinn before (Tenacious Gadfly), and not much has changed since then. Illinois continues to struggle under oppressive ($100 billion) public pension debt and multi-billion dollar budget deficits despite a sizable “temporary” state income tax now pumping more into state coffers. custodia originale samsung tab s2 8 Quinn is often portrayed in press and the political blogosphere in terms of being hapless–not a great portrait for someone seeking re-election in tough times. custodia samsung 5 mini Indeed, rumors continue to swirl of the possibility of fellow Democrats trying to take him out in next year’s Primary. custodia samsung galaxy tab4 But political coroners have tagged Quinn’s toe a number of times in the past only to be confounded. Will that be the case in 2014? Perhaps, but these approval numbers simply cannot be dismissed easily:


Poll type: Automated - Date: May 8, 2013 - Participants: 1,057 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%
 ApproveDisapproveNeutral/No opinion
ALL VOTERS27.98%61.69%10.33%
BY GENDER************
Women28.09%59.64%12.27%
Men27.83%64.68%7.49%
BY PARTY ID************
Repubicans11.01%83.82%5.17%
Democrats47.55%38.05%14.39%
Independents15.43%75.74%8.82%
BY LOCATION************
Chicago44.34%41.48%14.18%
Suburban Cook36.26%51.68%12.06%
Collars23.76%67.14%9.09%
Downstate15.39%76.96%7.65%


It’s problematic for Gov. Quinn that support among Independent voters continues to erode for him. custodia impermeabile galaxy note 4 Again, let’s be clear that these approval numbers can’t be viewed as a predictor of doom. custodia galaxy grand neo plus Quinn’s dismal approval rating didn’t stop him from winning in 2010. But we’re sure that some will look at these results and assume that Quinn can best be described as the Walking Dead.


Next up: Wisconsin Gov.

Hot off the presses

Today we begin our last public polls of the season with numbers from Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Missouri. These were going to get released tomorrow, but we’re getting a lot of folks urging us to at least release top-lines, so we’re happy to oblige. custodia full body samsung s7 We’ll try to get more details out soon to allow our propeller-head followers a chance to dig into the numbers, but the weather-related problems back east are playing havoc with our schedules. custodia rigida samsung a8 2018 All of these polls were conducted the evening of October 30 through automated polling methods. custodia samsung a5 2016 calamita All results are weighted to correct for under-/over-sampling in a number of demographic categories. custodia portafoglio galaxy j5 2017 And our last rounds of polls force a decision from our participants…no “undecided” answers are allowed. custodia samsung j5 2017 rosa This allows us to get a better idea where the handful of stragglers really stand.