Favorite Son

There’s been a surprising amount of conjecture coming our way lately about the possibility of Mitt Romney inching closer to Barack Obama in Illinois. We’ve not paid much attention that that conjecture until it started to be uttered in some national circles and a handful of reporters we respect called to ask if there was anything to it.

There isn’t.

We polled 1,198 Illinois likely voters last night. Following are the weighted head-to-head results and a regional breakdown:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 30, 2012 - Participants: 1,198 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.95%
 Barack ObamaMitt Romney3rd Party
ALL VOTERS57%41%2%
Sub. Cook66%31%3%
Collar Counties44%55%1%

For those of you uninitiated in the Illinois political scene — outside of following the hijinks of our politicians in Popular Prison Monthly — Chicago and Suburban Cook County each account for about 20% of the vote in the Land of Lincoln. No matter how well Romney does in the five suburban “collar counties” or downstate (the rest of Illinois outside of Chicago, Suburban Cook & the Collars), the huge hunk of burning love that his home base provides the president simply cannot be toppled. Some of our projections include turnout scenarios that put Romney as close as 10 points from the lead, but there is no way that Chicagoland is going to abandon it’s Favorite Son.