Mayoral X-tabs

The cross tabulation of polling data often provides key insights into what’s behind an electorate’s thinking.  True political nerds love to digest such informational nuggets because of the potential for real insight they provide. In the case of Tuesday’s Chicago mayoral poll, the cross-tabs show two blinding glimpses of the obvious: this race is up for grabs, and Mayor Emanuel’s blessing won’t help the Chosen One much.  Of course, Emanuel’s millions in potential campaign contributions and the army of insiders who have a stake in the outcome is another matter all together.

You can view/download the full report with demographic cross-tabs HERE.

Observations:

  • Younger voters led the pack in saying that Mayor Emanuel’s endorsement would have a negative impact on their selection. A whopping 55% of the 18-24 age bracket  and 51% of the 25-34 age bracket said they would be less likely to support a candidate hand-picked by Emanuel.
  • Hispanic voters were the leading ethnic group to oppose any pick by Emanuel: 57% gave a negative response to that question.
  • Usually, there is some kind of minor gender difference in questions such as Choice for Mayor. The two candidates with the highest returns (it’s WAY too early to use the term front runners) — Garry McCarthy and Willie Wilson — had exactly the same percentage of supporters among men and women. Unusual, but not particularly predictive.

We’ll be back with another Chicago mayoral poll after things shake out a bit. This election is going to be one of the most closely watched mayoral races in the nation.