A report today that some Illinois unions had pulled their anti-Bruce Rauner ads from the airwaves because they had “accomplished their goal” caused a bit of stir among hardcore political types. The surprise move led many to speculate that the union brain trust now believes that Mr. Rauner’s numbers are sufficiently high that he cannot be beat in the Primary next week. Still, the Chicago Tribune recently published results from their second poll which led some to believe that Kirk Dillard still has a fighting chance. And Capitol Fax reported that Mr. Dillard has recently received $400,000 from teacher unions.
Is this still a ball game?
Since this is Tracking Tuesday at We Ask America, we decided to not only run our tracker but to also take away voters’ opportunity to say they’re undecided–a move we usually take when we’re within a week of the election.
So, after we asked participants to verify their registration and intent to vote in the Republican Primary, we asked this:
If the Republican Primary Election for governor were held today–and you HAD to choose a candidate–for whom would you vote?
Here are their responses:Poll type: Automated - Date: 3/11/2014 - Participants: 1,235 Likely GOP Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.90%
|Bill Brady||Kirk Dillard||Bruce Rauner||Dan Rutherford|
We’ll post some more crosstabs on this tomorrow morning.
Clearly, it would take an enormous shift in the political universe’s primordial ooze for anyone in the field to catch Bruce Rauner. The big chunk of cash unions spent against him on negative ads may have had an effect on his long-term viability, but the Republican voting universe isn’t buying it.
We may take another look this race Sunday. But if we do, it will only be to see how close we can call it.