Hot off the presses-2

We’ve just wrapped up our weighting on three important polls–Wisconsin, Virginia and Ohio–and want to push the top-lines out to you as quickly as possible. All of these polls were conducted from Oct.30-Nov. 1 through automated means. The responses came from likely voters, and the results have been weighted to correct for over-/under-sampling.  We took great care in Ohio and Virginia to make sure we had adequate coverage of regions that are afflicted by Hurricane Sandy outages, and now feel we have the right mix of voters. If and when time permits, we’ll provide background numbers for you, but our data integrity chief has given a thumbs up so we’re pushing them out the door.

STATEResponsesMoE ±Barack ObamaMitt Romney3rd Party
Wisconsin1,2103%51.5%44.8%3.7%
Virginia1,0693.0%48.5%47.6%3.9%
Ohio1,6492.6%50.2%45.8%4.0%

In addition to the presidential numbers in Wisconsin and Virginia, we polled the races for U.S. Senate. In Wisconsin, Democrat Tammy Baldwin is leading Republican Tommy Thompson 48.5% to 46.3% with 5.2% going to third-party candidates–a real tightening in this contentious race. You may remember that Thompson trailed in his primary until close to the end and pulled out a come-from-behind victory. Deja vue? We’ll see.

In a more controversial vein, we stubbornly continue to be contrarians in the Virginia Senate race where we find Republican George Allen with a tight 50.4 to 49.6 lead over Democrat Tim Kaine. Unlike those polls that show a similar Dem/GOP/Ind mix that resembles Virginia’s 2008 results, we’re seeing closer to a 33/33/34 response.

Back to the salt mines…

Nebraska

A number of readers have been asking us to poll the Nebraska Senate race featuring Democrat former U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey and Republican Deb Fischer since we had some success there in the surprise Republican primary win by Fischer. Kerrey has moved toward the center in his effort to keep retiring Senator Ben Nelson’s seat in the hands of Democrats, but has faced an uphill battle in a state where Mitt Romney has a double-digit lead over Barack Obama.  He’s made some hay by trying to exploit a land dispute Fischer had years ago with a neighboring ranch, but may have gone over the top by claiming Fischer was trying somehow to grab property that didn’t belong to her. Still, Kerrey is a skilled communicator and Fischer has yet to be tested in a statewide arena, so we thought we’d check to see if those claiming the race was tightening are correct.

We do not believe they are:

Poll type: Automated Date: November 1, 2012 - Participants: 1,178 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.95%
 Deb Fischer (R)Bob Kerrey (D)Undecided
ALL VOTERS53.6%41.2%5.2%
DEM only18%79%3%
GOP only85%12%3%
IND only48%42%10%

As in all of our polls, these results have been weighted to normalize and over-/under-sampling in key demographic and geographic areas. In the same poll, we asked likely voters their choice for president; the results were Obama 41%; Romney 54%; Generic 3rd Party 2%; Undecided 3%--so Fischer seems to be mirroring the state’s political mood.

Absent some major political explosion, it appears that the improbable winner of the Republican Primary will find herself a member of the world’s most exclusive club.

Hot off the presses

Today we begin our last public polls of the season with numbers from Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Missouri. These were going to get released tomorrow, but we’re getting a lot of folks urging us to at least release top-lines, so we’re happy to oblige.  We’ll try to get more details out soon to allow our propeller-head followers a chance to dig into the numbers, but the weather-related problems back east are playing havoc with our schedules.

All of these polls were conducted the evening of October 30 through automated polling methods. All results are weighted to correct for under-/over-sampling in a number of demographic categories. And our last rounds of polls force a decision from our participants…no “undecided” answers are allowed. This allows us to get a better idea where the handful of stragglers really stand.

STATEResponsesMoE ±Barack ObamaMitt Romney3rd Party
Colorado1,2462.9%50.1%46.7%3.2%
Florida1,1463.0%48.9%49.8%1.3%
Iowa1,1743.0%48.8%47.3%3.9%
Missouri1,2172.9%42.2%53.8%4.0%

In addition, we polled the Missouri Senate race where we found Democrat incumbent Claire McCaskill up 48.6% to Republican Todd Akin’s 45.2% (Libertarian Jonathan Dine received an important 6.2% as well.)

More soon.

Favorite Son

There’s been a surprising amount of conjecture coming our way lately about the possibility of Mitt Romney inching closer to Barack Obama in Illinois. We’ve not paid much attention that that conjecture until it started to be uttered in some national circles and a handful of reporters we respect called to ask if there was anything to it.

There isn’t.

We polled 1,198 Illinois likely voters last night. Following are the weighted head-to-head results and a regional breakdown:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 30, 2012 - Participants: 1,198 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.95%
 Barack ObamaMitt Romney3rd Party
ALL VOTERS57%41%2%
Chicago82%16%2%
Sub. Cook66%31%3%
Collar Counties44%55%1%
Downstate46%51%3%

For those of you uninitiated in the Illinois political scene — outside of following the hijinks of our politicians in Popular Prison Monthly — Chicago and Suburban Cook County each account for about 20% of the vote in the Land of Lincoln. No matter how well Romney does in the five suburban “collar counties” or downstate (the rest of Illinois outside of Chicago, Suburban Cook & the Collars), the huge hunk of burning love that his home base provides the president simply cannot be toppled. Some of our projections include turnout scenarios that put Romney as close as 10 points from the lead, but there is no way that Chicagoland is going to abandon it’s Favorite Son.

End in Sight

We begin our home stretch with a series of polls conducted in the six targeted congressional districts in Illinois. As we previously reported, redistricting in the Land of Lincoln was totally controlled by Democrats. Last night, we conducted our final public polls in those six districts where we find some remarkably competitive races despite President Obama’s lead.

Illinois 8 – Democrat Tammy Duckworth vs. Republican incumbent Joe Walsh

As we’ve profiled before, this race pits Duckworth, a disabled Iraqi war veteran, against Tea Party favorite Joe Walsh. While Duckworth hasn’t proven to be a great candidate, she has a distinct advantage in this re-drawn district by running against a guy who seems to enjoy being a lightning rod for controversy. Walsh surprised many by keeping this race competitive as long as he did, but Duckworth’s campaign has taken advantage of Walsh’s without-exception pro-life views while whacking him for not paying child support. That one-two punch seems to have pushed Walsh over the edge where he now may be in a free fall:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,010 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%
 Tammy DuckworthJoe Walsh
ALL VOTERS54.6%45.4%
Republicans19%81%
Democrats90%10%
Independents52%48%

Whether it gets worse for Mr. Walsh before Election Day is anyone’s guess, but Tammy Duckworth now appears to be in line for a win on November 6.

 

Illinois 10 – Democrat Brad Schneider vs. Republican incumbent Bob Dold

This affluent congressional district has always been one to ignore Party labels. Challenger Schneider’s campaign never seemed to understand that and is trying to portray pro-choice Bob Dold as a right-wing nut to a very well-informed electorate. While missing that target, Schneider has also stumbled a bit about the reality of his business experience. Questions about his resumé are being tied into his refusal to release his income tax records. Still, this district is strongly pro-Obama enough that Dold finds it hard to pull away outside of the margin of error:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,257 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%
 Brad SchneiderBob Dold
ALL VOTERS46.4%53.6%
Republicans15%85%
Democrats84%16%
Independents42%58%

The core of the new IL-10 helped elect Barack Obama in 2008 but also gave the nod to Republican Congressman (now U.S. Senator) Mark Kirk), so the edging ahead by Dold seems to fit the profile. Plus, among the most likely voters (those who voted in 2008 & 2010), Dold enjoys a ten-point lead.

 

Illinois 11  –  Democrat Bill Foster vs. Republican incumbent Judy Biggert

The new 11th District leans slightly Democratic and is not a great fit for either candidate here. Foster was a one-term congressman who was defeated in 2010, while Biggert has has a long career in both the Illinois General Assembly and Congress. Neither are particularly strong campaigners, but each have lots of campaign and outside money flowing. Foster’s vote for Obamacare has not been universally accepted in this area, and Biggert’s long career made it easy for her opponent to cherry pick past votes that could be splashed in direct mail and on TV. Like other area Democrats, Foster’s campaign has tried to paint pro-choice Biggert as an extremist. Unlike IL-10, though, much of the 11th District is new to both candidates. Here are last night’s results including the GENDER breakouts because that what seems to be a driving force here:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,303 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.7%
 Judy Biggert (R)Bill Foster (D)
ALL VOTERS 49.6% 50.4%
Females50%50%
Males48%50%

This race has swung back and forth in the polls for the past few months. Two weeks ago we may have guessed that Foster was poised for a breakout, but Biggert has fought back and this one is now a real horse race.

 

Illinois 12 – Republican Jason Plummer vs Democrat Bill Enyart vs Green Party’s Paula Bradshaw

Illinois 12 encompasses a large part of southwest Illinois and has elected conservative Democrats since the original lungfish crawled out of the ocean. Still, Barack Obama is not particularly popular here, and Republican candidate Jason Plummer hoped to be able to parlay his family’s well-know lumber business and 6-foot 8-inch frame into a winning effort. Many thought he was well on his way, but a series of post-primary moves by the Democrats have put Plummer on an uphill climb against his main competitor, former Adjutant General Bill Enyart.

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,313 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.7%
 Bill Enyart (D)Jason Plummer (R)Paula Bradshaw (G) 
ALL VOTERS 50.6% 45.6% 3.8%
Republicans16%81%3%
Democrats86%11%3%
Independents37%57%6%

[NOTE: A reader caught that we had transposed the Plummer/Enyart Independent numbers in our original post. It has been corrected and the following narrative remains correct. We apologize for the error.] While Plummer has a 20 point lead among Independents, the 37/27 advantage Democrats have in IL-12 coupled with Enyart’s better numbers among his own party melt that Independent advantage away.  We’re not ready to say Enyart is breaking out from the pack, though. Examining the results from only those who voted in 2008 and 2010 (the most likely) gives Enyart a razor-thin lead that could be evaporated based on turnout. But this is a very tough district for any Republican.

 

Illinois 13  –  Republican Rodney Davis vs Democrat David Gill vs Independent John Hartman

While IL-13 leans slightly Democratic, the core of this newly configured district has chosen the opponent of Democrat David Gill in the last three congressional elections. It’s difficult to overcome that record, and Gill’s platform may prove to be a bit further to the left than the downstate area can accept. Republican Rodney Davis came into the race late and had to claw and scratch his way into the name recognition game, but it appears to be working. He recently received the endorsements of three top area newspapers which didn’t hurt matters.

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,360 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.7%
 David Gill (D)Rodney Davis (R)John Hartman (I)
ALL VOTERS 45.1% 50.2% 3.9%
Republicans10%85%5%
Democrats84%12%4%
Independents38%55%6%

Independent John Hartman continues to earn some respect, but Davis may be a more comfortable fit in an area that tends to be moderately conservative.

 

Illinois 17 – Republican incumbent Bobby Schilling vs. Democrat Cheri Bustos

We consider this one a dead heat. Schilling and Bustos change leads every other poll (we’ve done several there in the past 14 days, the last one had Bustos up by nearly 3 points) and it’s averages out as a simple 50-50 split. While heavily Democratic, this area has a blue-collar and somewhat conservative lean to it. Incumbent Congressman Schilling fills the “one-of-us” role well as a pizza restaurant owner who is both unpretentious and affable. But Schilling leans farther to the right than the district as a whole. Still, he’s found a strident-free way of communicating with constituents. Bustos, who was previously a news reporter and East Moline alderwoman, came to the race as a camera-ready fresh face with a solid political pedigree that hasn’t disappointed although her stance on issues remains a tad nebulous. Both work hard and both leave favorable impressions.

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,325 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%
 Bobby Schilling (R)Cheri Bustos (D)
ALL VOTERS 52.0% 48.0%
Republicans89%11%
Democrats16%84%
Independents58%42%

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, this one should come into election day as a pick ’em race.

 

Safe at Home

Illinois Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. has been traveling down a bumpy road the last few years. His still-unresolved connection to an alleged 2008 scheme by former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich to sell or trade the appointment of a U.S. Senate seat left vacant by the election of Barack Obama as president resulted in a ongoing congressional ethics committee probe. That was closely followed by some sordid accusations about his private life–a tough one-two punch in the gut for most politicians. His ongoing negative press combined with the newly redrawn district made some Democrats believe that Jackson could be vulnerable in the Primary, and he was indeed challenged by former U.S. Representative Debbie Halvorson. That effort flopped, and Jackson appeared ready to cruise to an easy November win.

Then, Jackson disappeared amidst vague reports of hospitalization for an undisclosed ailment at an undisclosed location. Chicago-area reporters and radio talk show pundits had a field day playing “Where’s Jesse?” until it was finally announced that Jackson was been receiving treatments for a bi-polar disorder at Mayo Clinic in Minnesota. While that could’ve settled matters for the time being, Jackson’s complex situation encouraged many to take a “wait for it…” approach. Then, the Chicago Sun-Times reported that Jackson was being investigated by federal authorities for the possible misuse of campaign funds to decorate his home. And federal authorities confirmed that the probe was initiated before Congressman Jackson sought treatment.

While Jackson’s district is solidly Democratic and few questioned whether he would be re-elected, a number of readers–including a few reporters–have asked us to poll this area, apparently believing that Jackson’s problems would certainly have to translate into a disgruntled electorate. So, we asked 819 likely voters in Illinois’ Second Congressional District two basic questions plus a string of demographic-based inquiries. First, here are the weighted results to a straight head-to-head question about their choice for congressman. As with all our polls this late in election season, we force participants to make a choice–no “undecideds.” And remember that rounding to whole numbers can cause a total to not add up to 100 percent.

Poll type: Automated Date: October 21, 2012 - Participants: 819 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.5%
 Jesse Jackson Jr. (D)Brian Woodworth (R)Marcus Lucas (I)
ALL VOTERS58%27%15%
WOMEN ONLY65%21%13%
MEN ONLY49%35%16%
AFRICAN AM.ONLY81%8%11%
ASIANS ONLY71%21%8%
HISPANIC ONLY40%33%27%
WHITE ONLY32%54%14%

Then we asked the poll participants this question: Do you AGREE or DISAGREE with this statement: “I am happy with the congressional candidates on the ballot. I do not wish someone else was running instead.” Here’s what they said about that:

 AGREEDISAGREE
ALL VOTERS55%45%
WOMEN ONLY59%41%
MEN ONLY50%50%
AFRICAN AM.ONLY69%31%
ASIANS ONLY57%43%
HISPANIC ONLY50%50%
WHITE ONLY43%57%

Clearly, Jackson enjoys the support of the voters he represents, and perhaps its time for those who continue to express incredulity to get over it. Jesse Jackson Jr. is safe at home.

 

IA & CO

We try to fulfill as many poll requests as possible, especially when someone reminds us that we haven’t re-polled two states lately that could play important roles in a tight presidential race: Iowa and Colorado. Both are considered swing states, but their political underpinnings vary as much as their terrains. Still, each have earned their Swing State status by having an electorate that doesn’t fit comfortably into political molds.

On the evening of October 15, we called 1,499 likely voters in Iowa (Margin of Error: ±2.6%), and 1,206 likely voters in Colorado (Margin of Error: ±2.9%) and asked them who they plan to vote for plus an array of demographic questions. We included Libertarian Gary Johnson to measure support for a third party. Each of the following results have been weighted to correct for any over-/under-sampling, and we’ve included the breakdown of self-described Republicans / Democrats / Independents that completed the questions. Here are the results:

 OBAMAROMNEYJOHNSONUNDECIDEDGOP / DEM / IND
IOWA48.7%45.9%1.2%4.2%33 / 36 / 31
COLORADO47.0%48.1%1.4%3.5%35 / 34 / 31

We’ll try hard to put some web-friendly background numbers together to add to these toplines (as you may guess, business right now for pollsters is a tad brisk). Suffice it to say that Iowa is close but remains in Barack Obama’s camp, while Colorado must be put in a pick-em category. We’ll be revisiting these key states after the debates. Stay tuned.

Illinois Orphans

Illinois is one of those areas considered by some as an “orphan state.” Barack Obama will surely win here easily with Chicago leading the parade. Like the other orphan states (California & New York)  candidates in key Illinois congressional races cannot count on millions of dollars being spent to by the campaigns of Barack Obama or Mitt Romney to persuade voters to put their state in the red or blue column on magic white board election night.  The congressional races are in essence the campaigns leading the parade but they are on their own. It also means that in some of these targeted districts, President Obama’s home state advantage is a bonus for Democrats aspiring to knock off Republican opponents. Just so we can pile on even more, the new congressional maps in Illinois were drawn totally by the controlling Democratic Party.

Since some of the polling we’ve done for clients here have recently been released or leaked and we’ve received requests to publicly poll these races, we went back into these six key districts over the past two days to offer up public results. We’ll give you a thumbnail sketch of each with the basic numbers.

Illinois 17 (NW Illinois)

Located in Northwest Illinois, IL-17 is chock full of blue-collar conservative Democrats. While the new map makes it bluer than the current district, Republican Bobby Schilling was a surprise winner here in the 2010 against incumbent Phil Hare. When We Ask America first wrote about that race and showed Schilling ahead, we were subject to a cascade of skepticism. We stuck by our guns, and affable pizza restaurant owner Schilling stuck to the campaign trail to pull out a surprise victory. This time his opponent is former journalist and city council member Cheri Bustos, the daughter of a powerful Illinois Democrat and family friend of U.S. Senator Dick Durbin. The right-leaning Chicago Tribune has endorsed Schilling and tsk-tsked Bustos for her less-than-forthcoming opinions on key issues. Still, the new 17th District heavily sways Democratic and by all accounts Bustos is a worker. Here are our results from this week’s poll there:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 9, 2012 - Participants: 1,183 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.9%
Cheri Bustos (D)Bobby Schilling (R)Undecided
46.14%45.81%8.05%

Illinois 13 (East Central)

IL-13 invokes lyrics from the Grateful Dead: What a long strange trip it’s been. Long-time GOP incumbent and human Q-Tip Tim Johnson was all set to defend his seat against physician David Gill who had won the silver medal in three previous attempts to unseat him. Then Johnson abruptly decided to call it quits. An eclectic groups of wannabe candidates quickly emerged, including a former Miss America who is best known for her crusade against pre-marital sex…not a well-received message among the 30,000+ randy college  students residing in the district. The ultimate choice was Rodney Davis, a respected congressional aide to John Shimkus. While Davis is well know in political circles, his name ID wasn’t great and he found himself starting from Square One this summer. Both Davis and Gill are hard workers in this district that runs the gamut from extreme right to extreme left. On average, it’s leans a bit Democratic, and Independent John Hartman is also on the ticket. Here are our results from this week’s poll there:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 7-9, 2012 - Participants: 1,253 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%
David Gill (D)Rodney Davis (R)John Hartman (I)Undecided
41.81%43.92%5.55%8.72%

Illinois 12 (Southern Illinois)

The retirement of long-time congressman Jerry Costello (D) threw the doors wide open for this Democratic-leaning but conservative district. Like IL-13, the 12th District traveled down a bumpy road in deciding it’s final pairing: Democrat Bill Enyart and Republican Jason Plummer. Plummer, an executive in a well-known family-owned lumber business, surprised the state as a newcomer in 2010 by beating better known challengers in the GOP’s Lt. Governor race. Plummer and his running mate lost the general election but the 30-year old retained his desire to run for office. Enyart is a former State Adjutant General who came to the party late when the Democratic Primary winner pulled out (he was trailing Plummer and had some baggage). President Obama isn’t very popular in the bucolic southern portion of the state. A Green Party candidate, Paula Bradshaw, is also on the ticket.

Here are our results from this week’s poll there:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 10, 2012 - Participants: 1,247 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%
Bill Enyart (D)Jason Plummer (R)Paula Bradshaw (G)Undecided
41.78%43.86%3.36%11.00%

Illinois 11 (Western Collars)

This district pits a Republican incumbent–Judy Biggert–against former 14th District Democratic Congressman Bill Foster. Foster is a physicist who surprised many when he won the seat of former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert in a 2008 special election. His votes in Congress didn’t quite track with the more conservative area of the district and he was defeated in 2010 by Republican Randy Hultgren. Biggert is a socially moderate Republican from Hinsdale with a reputation as a fiscal conservative with an independent streak. Neither candidate is well known in this newly configured evenly split district. The lead in polls here have teetered back and forth and so far, no one can seem to keep a lead. Here are our results from this week’s poll there:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 10, 2012 - Participants: 1,253 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%
Bill Foster (D)Judy Biggert (R)Undecided
44.32%46.05%9.63%

Illinois 10 (Northern Collars)

The 10th District in Illinois is known for disregarding political party labels but essentially leaning left. Yet, Republican congressional candidates have done well in this area for decades no matter which presidential candidate won. Barack Obama won big here in 2008, as did former Congressman (and now U.S. Senator) Mark Kirk (R). Republican Bob Dold won in 2010 and has kept the district’s tradition for independent thought. He has focused on job-creation issues and been a successful fundraiser. His opponent is Democrat Brad Schneider, a business consultant and political newcomer who survived a hard fought primary in the spring. President Obama is doing very well here, but for now Dold his holding a narrow lead:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 9, 2012 - Participants: 1,172 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%
Brad Schneider (D)Bob Dold (R)Undecided
45.42%47.29%7.29%

Illinois 8 (North Central Collars) 

Two years ago, We Ask America was the only pollster we know of that predicted little-known Republican Tea Party advocate, Joe Walsh, would win his race against Democrat incumbent Melissa Bean. Walsh won that contest in a squeaker and now faces Democrat Tammy Duckworth. Duckworth is a disabled Iraqi war veteran who lost her legs in a helicopter accident. She lost a close 2006 bid for Congress in another district, but IL-8 leans slightly left and most pundits felt she was a shoo-in against the brash Walsh. Walsh has been a magnet for the wrong kind of press, but his Howard Beale-ish “mad as Hell” attitude attracts more local support than many recognize, and this race has become a real zinger that can now go either way. For a great overview of this race, click HERE. Here are our latest results from October 10:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 7-9, 2012 - Participants: 1,158 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.9%
Tammy Duckworth (D)Joe Walsh (R)Undecided
45.18%47.89%6.93%

Lane Changers?

Every now and them we conduct a poll that produces results that stubbornly swim against the current. That usually brings out our CSI lab coats to figure out why, and we sometime end up calling the results a simple outlier and letting it die on the vine. This one may be different. Over the last three nights, we’ve polled Virginia’s U.S. Senate race pitting former DNC chair/former governor Tim Kaine against former governer/senator George Allen. First the numbers:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 7-9, 2012 - Participants: 1,296 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.9%
Tim Kaine (D)George Allen (R)UndecidedGOP / DEM / IND
41.26%46.01%12.73%34 / 32 / 34

Any time our numbers go that much against the grain of conventional wisdom, you can bet on us re-visting the race soon. But we decided to publish the results because there’s something interesting going on in Virginia and other states. There is a significant percentage of voters who are shifting their self-described political party affiliation; we refer to them as lane changers. People who are strict party loyalists sometimes find it disconcerting that affiliations can shift like this. In truth, its probably more accurate to simply call these lane changers Independents, but we’ve seen a lot of it lately, and that may why so many are wringing their hands about pollsters’ mix of GOP/Dem/Ind in their polls.

In our opinion, those who try to shape their samples based on the 2008 presidential mix are missing the boat. While digging into the reasons our numbers are different–and out of curiosity–we weighted the raw numbers out of Virginia based on that 2008 presidential ratio. Lo and behold…it moves Kaine AHEAD  by four points, about the same lead the the Real Clear Politics average is showing in this race. That doesn’t mean that other pollsters are using the wrong mix, but it makes us wonder.

In the Virginia Senate race, we’ll take our lumps if we’re wrong and we’ll self-report if future polls show we’re off the mark. But we think others ought to jump into this one and see if Mitt Romney’s sudden surge is having some coattails here.

Coattails?

Before our Drudge-induced website meltdown caused a lost 36 hours for us, we had plans to quickly post the results to the second question we asked on our 10/4 polls in Florida and Ohio: the races for U.S. Senate. If Mitt Romney measurably gained from his debate performance (he did), we wanted to know if there would be a coattails effect in the Senate races.

Please read this: any candidate, party partisan or political junkie who deems bounce-poll results as proof positive of a breakout is short-sighted. The results of these polls represent accurate snapshots of a very brief period of time; they simply cannot and should not be viewed in a vacuum. We’ll follow up soon to see if we have true love or merely a passing fancy.

Again, these Senate questions were asked during our recent presidential polls in these two states. We’re doing a rolling three-day poll in Virginia; you’ll hear about that soon. We’ve included the Real Clear Politics poll average for each race so you can see how far these results deviate. The final column contains the party splits from the self-described affiliation question. Those splits are the same as we had in our presidential polls.

Each of these automated polls had 1,200+ responses from likely voters. MoE 3%. Each was weighted to correct for over-/under-sampling among select demographics.
STATERCP AVE.DEM. CANDIDATEGOP CANDIDATEUNDECIDEDGOP / DEM / IND
FLORIDANelson +6.5Bill Nelson (D): 43.8%Connie Mack (R): 43.9%Undecided: 12.3%38/33/29
OHIOBrown +5.6Sharrod Brown (D): 46.0%Josh Mandel (R): 43.5%Undecided: 10.5%34/38/28

The Florida race between Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie Mack varies widely in RCP results (the last two polls vary by 11 points!), but it appears to be a dead heat in this poll. In Ohio, Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel climbs a bit closer to Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown.

The Nelson/Mandel numbers in Ohio may only reflect an uptick with the margin of error of the average. The Nelson/Mack match, though, goes outside the norm and needs to be watched. We’ll revisit these races soon.