Struggling

We Ask America Polls™ kicks off our 2013 public poll offering with a series of surveys focusing on governors who will be up for re-election next year. It’s important to note that this series of polls asks only one main question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job [governor’s name] is doing? To be fair, governors are often viewed by the public as the main symbol of state government, and these polls do not measure or predict how well a particular politician will do against any given opponent. custodia portafoglio per samsung galaxy j5 2017 The proof of that may be found in our first offering in our home state of Illinois: Democrat Pat Quinn. We’ve profiled Gov. custodia samsung s7 edge pelle Quinn before (Tenacious Gadfly), and not much has changed since then. Illinois continues to struggle under oppressive ($100 billion) public pension debt and multi-billion dollar budget deficits despite a sizable “temporary” state income tax now pumping more into state coffers. custodia originale samsung tab s2 8 Quinn is often portrayed in press and the political blogosphere in terms of being hapless–not a great portrait for someone seeking re-election in tough times. custodia samsung 5 mini Indeed, rumors continue to swirl of the possibility of fellow Democrats trying to take him out in next year’s Primary. custodia samsung galaxy tab4 But political coroners have tagged Quinn’s toe a number of times in the past only to be confounded. Will that be the case in 2014? Perhaps, but these approval numbers simply cannot be dismissed easily:


Poll type: Automated - Date: May 8, 2013 - Participants: 1,057 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%
 ApproveDisapproveNeutral/No opinion
ALL VOTERS27.98%61.69%10.33%
BY GENDER************
Women28.09%59.64%12.27%
Men27.83%64.68%7.49%
BY PARTY ID************
Repubicans11.01%83.82%5.17%
Democrats47.55%38.05%14.39%
Independents15.43%75.74%8.82%
BY LOCATION************
Chicago44.34%41.48%14.18%
Suburban Cook36.26%51.68%12.06%
Collars23.76%67.14%9.09%
Downstate15.39%76.96%7.65%


It’s problematic for Gov. Quinn that support among Independent voters continues to erode for him. custodia impermeabile galaxy note 4 Again, let’s be clear that these approval numbers can’t be viewed as a predictor of doom. custodia galaxy grand neo plus Quinn’s dismal approval rating didn’t stop him from winning in 2010. But we’re sure that some will look at these results and assume that Quinn can best be described as the Walking Dead.


Next up: Wisconsin Gov.

Hot off the presses

Today we begin our last public polls of the season with numbers from Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Missouri. These were going to get released tomorrow, but we’re getting a lot of folks urging us to at least release top-lines, so we’re happy to oblige. custodia full body samsung s7 We’ll try to get more details out soon to allow our propeller-head followers a chance to dig into the numbers, but the weather-related problems back east are playing havoc with our schedules. custodia rigida samsung a8 2018 All of these polls were conducted the evening of October 30 through automated polling methods. custodia samsung a5 2016 calamita All results are weighted to correct for under-/over-sampling in a number of demographic categories. custodia portafoglio galaxy j5 2017 And our last rounds of polls force a decision from our participants…no “undecided” answers are allowed. custodia samsung j5 2017 rosa This allows us to get a better idea where the handful of stragglers really stand.

Favorite Son

There’s been a surprising amount of conjecture coming our way lately about the possibility of Mitt Romney inching closer to Barack Obama in Illinois. galaxy s8 custodia portafoglio We’ve not paid much attention that that conjecture until it started to be uttered in some national circles and a handful of reporters we respect called to ask if there was anything to it. custodia samsung s9 trasparente There isn’t. We polled 1,198 Illinois likely voters last night. custodia tablet samsung sm t 560 Following are the weighted head-to-head results and a regional breakdown: Poll type: Automated Date: October 30, 2012 - Participants: 1,198 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.95%

 Barack ObamaMitt Romney3rd Party
ALL VOTERS57%41%2%
Chicago82%16%2%
Sub. Cook66%31%3%
Collar Counties44%55%1%
Downstate46%51%3%
For those of you uninitiated in the Illinois political scene — outside of following the hijinks of our politicians in Popular Prison Monthly — Chicago and Suburban Cook County each account for about 20% of the vote in the Land of Lincoln. custodia sikai per telecomando per smart tv samsung No matter how well Romney does in the five suburban “collar counties” or downstate (the rest of Illinois outside of Chicago, custodia samsung s7 edge sottile Suburban Cook & the Collars), custodia galaxy a8 2018 the huge hunk of burning love that his home base provides the president simply cannot be toppled. custodia samsung s6edge plus Some of our projections include turnout scenarios that put Romney as close as 10 points from the lead,

Mojo

The prelude to Wisconsin’s August 14 Primary Election keeps getting more interesting–especially in the GOP race for U.S. custodia samsung s6 edge plus viola Senate. The upcoming retirement of Democratic Senator Herb Kohl has led Republicans hopefuls into a true donnybrook for the chance to face Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the fall. For months, former governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson was the frontrunner, but hedge fund manager and political newcomer Eric Hovde has brought deep pockets and an “outsider” brand to the race. It seems to be working, due in part to outside forces. Thompson, the most moderate of the field, has become a punching bag for the other Republicans on the ballot, Jeff Fitzgerald and Mark Neumann. National conservative groups have embraced Neumann and have relentlessly attacked Thompson for his support of some health care reforms. The onslaught is having its effect, and Thompson has seen his lead shrink remarkably fast. custodia adidas samsung Last night, we asked 1,237 likely GOP voters in Wisconsin who they would vote for if the election were held today. custodia samsung galaxi a3 Here’s what they said (results have been weighted): Poll type:: Automated Date: July 30, 2012 - Participants: 1,237 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

CandidatePercentage
Jeff Fitzgerald12.11%
Eric Hovde23.20%
Mark Neumann16.66%
Tommy Thompson22.79%
Undecided25.24%
Similar to what we saw earlier this year in Nebraska’s GOP Primary, the outside forces that are pummeling away on the presumed frontrunner are allowing a relative newcomer to take a lead down the stretch. samsung j5 2017 custodia vetro However, in Nebraska the shift in favor of Deb Fischer happened very quickly and just days before the election–leaving little time for Jon Bruning to strike back. In the Dairy State, Thompson has the time to re-group and claw his way back into the lead–especially in light of the relatively high number of undecided voters. samsung galaxy tab a 2016 custodia chiusura elastico But he better get clawing.

Florida Revisted

In our first Florida poll five short days ago we were surprised to report that Mitt Romney had regained the lead. custodia tpu samsung s8 We shouldn’t have been surprised, because Mitt Romney is now not only leading, he may win a majority of votes in the Sunshine State GOP Primary. custodia samsung galaxy tab 9 6 Here are our latest results both with the normal “undecided” option plus a projection without undecideds: Type: Automated - Date: 1/29//2012 - Participants: 1,188 Likely voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.84%

Results with Undecideds
Gingrich25%
Romney44%
Santorum10%
Paul10%
Undecided11%
Without Undecideds
Gingrich28%
Romney50%
Santorum12%
Paul11%
The snowbird-influenced, somewhat less conservative voter base of Florida is forcing the pendulum to swing back into Romney’s arena, but as Joe Scarborough wrote in an excellent Politico.com article about Gingrich… samsung tab s2 custodia

A Gingrich campaign is always a high wire act without the net and sometimes, the main actor in this manic routine actually makes it to the other side. custodia samsung k zoom Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/72084_Page3.html#ixzz1kuEpyu5T

Gingrich’s benefactors have deep pockets and are single-minded. custodia specchio samsung s6 edge Newt’s their guy and they will undoubtedly write enough checks to keep him in the game and area TV stations fat and happy. custodia samsung s5 neo rossa And the Newtonian Brigade will continue to fantasize about the prospect of Gingrich debating President Obama should he find a way to regain his bearings. custodia tastiera tablet samsung Then again, a big win by Romney in Florida will undoubtedly help restore his previous aura of being the inevitable winner (60% in Florida predict that)–unless more conservative voters in upcoming primaries slingshot Newt back in the lead.

End in Sight

We begin our home stretch with a series of polls conducted in the six targeted congressional districts in Illinois. As we previously reported, redistricting in the Land of Lincoln was totally controlled by Democrats. Last night, we conducted our final public polls in those six districts where we find some remarkably competitive races despite President Obama’s lead.

Illinois 8 – Democrat Tammy Duckworth vs. Republican incumbent Joe Walsh

As we’ve profiled before, this race pits Duckworth, a disabled Iraqi war veteran, against Tea Party favorite Joe Walsh. While Duckworth hasn’t proven to be a great candidate, she has a distinct advantage in this re-drawn district by running against a guy who seems to enjoy being a lightning rod for controversy. Walsh surprised many by keeping this race competitive as long as he did, but Duckworth’s campaign has taken advantage of Walsh’s without-exception pro-life views while whacking him for not paying child support. That one-two punch seems to have pushed Walsh over the edge where he now may be in a free fall: Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,010 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%

 Tammy DuckworthJoe Walsh
ALL VOTERS54.6%45.4%
Republicans19%81%
Democrats90%10%
Independents52%48%
Whether it gets worse for Mr. Walsh before Election Day is anyone’s guess, but Tammy Duckworth now appears to be in line for a win on November 6.  

Illinois 10 – Democrat Brad Schneider vs. Republican incumbent Bob Dold

This affluent congressional district has always been one to ignore Party labels. Challenger Schneider’s campaign never seemed to understand that and is trying to portray pro-choice Bob Dold as a right-wing nut to a very well-informed electorate. While missing that target, Schneider has also stumbled a bit about the reality of his business experience. Questions about his resumé are being tied into his refusal to release his income tax records. custodia antiurto samsung j5 2016 Still, this district is strongly pro-Obama enough that Dold finds it hard to pull away outside of the margin of error: Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,257 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

 Brad SchneiderBob Dold
ALL VOTERS46.4%53.6%
Republicans15%85%
Democrats84%16%
Independents42%58%
The core of the new IL-10 helped elect Barack Obama in 2008 but also gave the nod to Republican Congressman (now U.S. Senator) Mark Kirk), so the edging ahead by Dold seems to fit the profile. Plus, among the most likely voters (those who voted in 2008 & 2010), Dold enjoys a ten-point lead. custodia batteria samsung galaxy note 8  

Illinois 11 – Democrat Bill Foster vs. Republican incumbent Judy Biggert

The new 11th District leans slightly Democratic and is not a great fit for either candidate here. Foster was a one-term congressman who was defeated in 2010, while Biggert has has a long career in both the Illinois General Assembly and Congress. custodia samsung galaxy tab s2 t719 Neither are particularly strong campaigners, but each have lots of campaign and outside money flowing. Foster’s vote for Obamacare has not been universally accepted in this area, and Biggert’s long career made it easy for her opponent to cherry pick past votes that could be splashed in direct mail and on TV. Like other area Democrats, Foster’s campaign has tried to paint pro-choice Biggert as an extremist. custodia per samsung tab e Unlike IL-10, though, much of the 11th District is new to both candidates. Here are last night’s results including the GENDER breakouts because that what seems to be a driving force here: Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,303 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.7%

 Judy Biggert (R)Bill Foster (D)
ALL VOTERS 49.6% 50.4%
Females50%50%
Males48%50%
This race has swung back and forth in the polls for the past few months. Two weeks ago we may have guessed that Foster was poised for a breakout, but Biggert has fought back and this one is now a real horse race.  

Illinois 12 – Republican Jason Plummer vs Democrat Bill Enyart vs Green Party’s Paula Bradshaw

Illinois 12 encompasses a large part of southwest Illinois and has elected conservative Democrats since the original lungfish crawled out of the ocean. custodia samsung galaxy tab a6 10 1 Still, Barack Obama is not particularly popular here, and Republican candidate Jason Plummer hoped to be able to parlay his family’s well-know lumber business and 6-foot 8-inch frame into a winning effort. Many thought he was well on his way, but a series of post-primary moves by the Democrats have put Plummer on an uphill climb against his main competitor, former Adjutant General Bill Enyart. Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,313 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.7%

 Bill Enyart (D)Jason Plummer (R)Paula Bradshaw (G) 
ALL VOTERS 50.6% 45.6% 3.8%
Republicans16%81%3%
Democrats86%11%3%
Independents37%57%6%
[NOTE: A reader caught that we had transposed the Plummer/Enyart Independent numbers in our original post. It has been corrected and the following narrative remains correct. We apologize for the error.] While Plummer has a 20 point lead among Independents, the 37/27 advantage Democrats have in IL-12 coupled with Enyart’s better numbers among his own party melt that Independent advantage away. We’re not ready to say Enyart is breaking out from the pack, though. Examining the results from only those who voted in 2008 and 2010 (the most likely) gives Enyart a razor-thin lead that could be evaporated based on turnout. But this is a very tough district for any Republican.   Illinois 13 – Republican Rodney Davis vs Democrat David Gill vs Independent John Hartman While IL-13 leans slightly Democratic, the core of this newly configured district has chosen the opponent of Democrat David Gill in the last three congressional elections. It’s difficult to overcome that record, and Gill’s platform may prove to be a bit further to the left than the downstate area can accept. Republican Rodney Davis came into the race late and had to claw and scratch his way into the name recognition game, but it appears to be working. He recently received the endorsements of three top area newspapers which didn’t hurt matters. Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,360 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.7%
 David Gill (D)Rodney Davis (R)John Hartman (I)
ALL VOTERS 45.1% 50.2% 3.9%
Republicans10%85%5%
Democrats84%12%4%
Independents38%55%6%
Independent John Hartman continues to earn some respect, but Davis may be a more comfortable fit in an area that tends to be moderately conservative.  

Illinois 17 – Republican incumbent Bobby Schilling vs. Democrat Cheri Bustos

We consider this one a dead heat. Schilling and Bustos change leads every other poll (we’ve done several there in the past 14 days, the last one had Bustos up by nearly 3 points) and it’s averages out as a simple 50-50 split. While heavily Democratic, this area has a blue-collar and somewhat conservative lean to it. Incumbent Congressman Schilling fills the “one-of-us” role well as a pizza restaurant owner who is both unpretentious and affable. But Schilling leans farther to the right than the district as a whole. custodia tab 4 samsung Still, he’s found a strident-free way of communicating with constituents. Bustos, who was previously a news reporter and East Moline alderwoman, came to the race as a camera-ready fresh face with a solid political pedigree that hasn’t disappointed although her stance on issues remains a tad nebulous. Both work hard and both leave favorable impressions. Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,325 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

 Bobby Schilling (R)Cheri Bustos (D)
ALL VOTERS 52.0% 48.0%
Republicans89%11%
Democrats16%84%
Independents58%42%
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, this one should come into election day as a pick ’em race.

Rock Star

NOTE: We Ask America conducted this poll on behalf of the Chicago Retail Merchants Association. The results of that poll are linked to their website are used with their permission.

You have to hand it to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. He inherited a massive snarl of complex problems when he took office a year ago–the type of problems where he has to say NO to a lot of people who may deserve better, but the economic realities of the times force pragmatism over generosity. And while reality-check politics can sometimes be a pathway to discontent, Chicago voters seem to be open to his feisty, but not over-the-top approach to taking on the issues flying at the Mayor’s Office. custodia samsung s8 originale piu venduta Not everyone agrees, of course, and Emanuel’s everything-is-political attitude rubs some the wrong way. The Chicago Retail Merchants Association–which continues to be an active player in Chicago’s political landscape–began commissioning and releasing poll results 18 months ago (during the mayoral campaign) and have continued to test the temperament of Windy City’s voters last week when they commission We Ask America to measure Emanuel’s popularity in some key areas. samsung galaxy a3 2017 custodia The results may be viewed HERE. The poll was taken soon after the close of the NATO Summit that Chicago hosted, which left the citizens of that city feeling pretty darn good about their place in the world. Despite media hype about the potential of huge protests…usually accompanied by flashback retrospectives of the 1968 Democratic Convention riots…the Summit failed to produce the predicted blood running in the streets. And while local TV stations did their best to show skirmishes between cops and protestors, it didn’t exactly pin the needle on Chicagoans’ Shock-o-Meter. custodia a libro samsung galaxy s4 They’ve seen better fights in the stands during White Sox-Cubs inter-league games. custodia originale galaxy s5 For all elected officials, popularity is ethereal. custodia tablet s2 8 pollici samsung t719 Bad tidings can spring up in a heartbeat, so a poll like this is only going to show you a snapshot in time.

OH-bama

We wrap up the first round in our Big 10 series with Ohio–perhaps the quintessential and, arguably, most important swing state. custodia per samsung 10 1 The closeness of recent presidential elections certainly makes the Buckeye State a battleground, and with good reason. With a single exception (1960) Ohio has gone with the presidential winner every election since 1944. So, as in our other polls in this series, we asked each participant: “If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?” We’ve included Libertarian Gary Johnson to test the impact of a third-party candidate on what may be a very tight race. custodia a5 samsung 2017 portafoglio Here are our results: Poll type:: Automated Date: July 24, 2012 - Participants: 1,115 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

 Barack ObamaMitt RomneyGary JohnsonUndecided
All voters (weighted)47.84%40.20%2.04%9.93%
Democrats83%10%1%6%
Republicans19%71%2%8%
Independents38%41%3%18%
What pops out immediately is the high percentage of self-described Republicans who say they will vote for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney. custodia s8 samsung 360 An outlier? Perhaps. custodia samsung s8 originale piu venduta But we went back into the field last night to test it again. The results: almost identical. custodia galaxy a5 2016 samsung con farfalle Hmmm. We going to keep an eye on that. custodia portafoglio samsung galaxy note 8 Since Independents are leaning toward Romney, if the “wayward” GOP electorate come back home to roost, this will tighten up considerably and quickly. custodia samsung 10 1 pollici And a rumored choice of Ohio Senator Rob Portman as Romney’s VP running mate could reverse what we’re seeing today. Then again, maybe those GOP voters leaning toward Obama are the result of the President working Ohio like Rocky Balboa on a side of beef…breaking a few political ribs while he’s at it.

Final MI & AZ

As America was gearing up to watch the Oscars, We Ask America was in the field in Michigan and Arizona asking likely Republican voters for the final time before Tuesday’s primaries asking voters for their choice for president. custodia silicone samsung s8 originale This time, we didn’t give participants an option to say they were undecided:

If the Primary Election for President were held today–and you HAD to make a choice–for whom would you vote?

Here’s what Michigan voters said: Type: Automated - Date: 2/26//2012 - Responses: 984 Likely GOP voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.12%

GingrichPaulRomneySantorum
12.53%18.08%36.85%32.53%
And here’s what Arizona voters had to say: Type: Automated - Date: 2/26//2012 - Responses: 1,162 Likely GOP voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.87%
GingrichPaulRomneySantorum
20.65%10.15%42.66%26.54%
It appears that Mitt Romney has Arizona tucked away…Michigan may be another story. samsung j7 2016 custodia originale While Romney has pulled out all the stops in his home state and seems poised for a come-from-behind victory, Rick Santorum has hung in against an onslaught of negative ads and a few gaffes of his own doing. custodia samsung j2 If Santorum loses by a close margin, many will question Romney’s ability to close the ultimate deal after a less-than-stellar showing in the Wolverine State. custodia libro samsung s5 Of course, many of those saying that will be Santorum, Gingrich and Paul. custodia samsung galaxy tab e —————————– NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™.

VA & CO

We Ask America picks up its Big Ten presidential series with the two bookends of the mix: Virginia and Colorado.

VIRGINIA:

Virginia also has a barn-burner race for the U.S. Senate (that may be greatly influence by the presidential election) pitting Republican former Senator George Allen against Democrat National Committee Chair and former Governor Tim Kaine. Allen lost in 2006 to a relatively unknown Democrat, Jim Webb, after Allen became a YouTube star from a video where he uttered a term used as a racial slur (Allen denied he meant the negative connotation). While many lay blame on that video for his loss, he was actually losing ground Webb before it surfaced. custodia caricabatterie samsung s7 Now, after a single term, Webb is stepping down and Allen is trying to earn his way back into the world’s most exclusive club. As in all of the series of states we’re polling by automated means, after qualifying each individual in regards to ability (registered) and intention to vote this fall, we asked the following straightforward questions:

If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote? And in Virginia: If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, for whom would you vote?

The options were randomized followed by the “undecided” choice. We then followed up with our demographic questions that include gender, age, and political party I.D. tablet samsung tab 2 custodia Weighting occurred if any of those demographic questions fell out of the norm. samsung galaxy a3 2015 custodia Here are our results: Poll type:: Automated Date: 6/25/2012 - Participants: 1,106 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.95%

FOR PRESIDENTPERCENT
Barack Obama43.3%
Mitt Romney48.0%
Undecided8.7%
FOR U.S. SENATE
George Allen44.0%
Tim Kaine35.0%
Undecided21.0%
While Mitt Romney is enjoying a close lead, George Allen may have found his bearings in Old Dominion. custodia guess samsung s8 plus The recent shift toward Romney we’re seeing in Virginia and a number of other key states this year will keep us watching closely to see if it sticks.

COLORADO:

With a churning but–at times– fairly even split of Democrats, Republicans and free-wheeling Independents, Colorado is as politically intriguing as any state in the nation. In a state where military retirees rub elbows with laid back ski bums, a majority of Coloradans had voted for Republican presidential candidates for nearly three decades until Bill Clinton broke onto the scene. Still, George W. Bush narrowly won the state twice, but in 2004–while Bush narrowly captured the majority–Democrat, Ken Salazar won a U.S. Senate seat and his brother John Salazar won a seat in the U.S. custodia samsung xcover 3 House, and Democrats captured both chambers of the state legislature. custodia per samsung grand neo plus So in some ways, Colorado is the quintessential swing state where no party ever gets a good toe hold on the craggy political slopes. Here are last night’s numbers on the presidential race: Poll type:: Automated Date: 6/25/2012 - Participants: 1,083 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.98%

CANDIDATEPercent
Barack Obama46.6%
Mitt Romney43.0%
Undecided10.4%
Obama won Colorado by nine points in 2008, and is now leading Romney by the margin of error.