Shocker in Chicago

Chicago Mayor Richard Daley’s retirement announcement hit the State of Illinois like a thunderclap. After more than two decades presiding over one of the nation’s most diverse constituencies, the residents of Chicago will choose a new mayor next year from a long–and growing–list of possible candidates.

While we fully accept the argument that it is way too early to be polling for replacements for Hizzoner, the political buzz the announcement created in the City of Broad Shoulders is palpable, and we simply can’t resist throwing out the first polling pitch.

But who to choose? As we pull the trigger on this poll, we’ve found 40+ possible candidates mentioned in published reports, with more queuing up for consideration. We wanted to narrow it down to ten (because there’s only ten digits on a phone for an automated poll), so we added up the articles and chose the ten who were mentioned in the most clippings–not exactly as precise our usual polls…but what the heck. This is for fun.

Who made the cut?

  • Alderman Ed Burke
  • Former Commerce Secretary (and First Brother) Bill Daley
  • Cook County Sheriff (and former State Rep) Tom Dart
  • Presidential Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel
  • Alderman Bob Fioretti
  • Congressman Luis Gutierrez
  • Cook County Assessor Jim Houlihan
  • Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr
  • Reverend/State Senator/Education reformer James Meeks; and
  • CTA Chairman (and former Housing Authority Chief) Terry Peterson

Since the optionsĀ  were asked in alphabetical order using names only…no descriptive narrative…about the best we can assume is that name recognition played a big role in this survey. Let’s look at the results: (remember: the TOTAL column gives the aggregate results, followed by a breakdown by ethnic origin.)

Chicago Mayoral Poll

 TotalAfrican
American
AsianHispanicWhiteOther
/Refused
CHOICE FOR MAYOR
Ed Burke6.31%5.44%7.07%3.38%8.74%4.00%
Bill Daley8.16%5.58%20.20%7.59%10.72%3.50%
Tom Dart13.66%7.44%6.06%5.91%24.26%12.50%
Rahm Emanuel29.68%34.53%21.21%21.94%30.04%23.50%
Bob Fiorietti2.95%2.39%3.03%2.53%2.82%6.00%
Luis Guitierrez12.81%6.24%10.10%50.63%7.19%14.00%
Jim Houlihan2.30%1.20%2.02%1.27%4.09%1.50%
Jesse Jackson Jr13.36%20.85%18.18%4.64%5.92%19.50%
James Meeks8.21%13.41%6.06%1.69%4.09%12.00%
Terry Peterson2.55%2.92%6.06%0.42%2.12%3.50%

Clearly, presidential CoS and former congressman Rahm Emanuel has a strong lead among this very vague preliminary test of 2,365 Chicago voters. Emanuel holds sway with both white and black voters in this city that gave the nation President Obama and leaves some fairly well-known competitors in the dust. Again, the list of possible candidates was largely built on speculation by political pundits and other Really Smart People, so keep that in mind. And remember…THIS IS FOR FUN.

Isn’t it?

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Poll stats:

2,365 participants

Ethnic breakdown:
African American: 37.69%
Asian: 4.95%
Hispanic: 11.86%
White: 35.49%
Other/Refused: 10.01%

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