Wrap up

We wrap up this season’s polling with a synopsis of our final polls compared to the actual outcome. Despite all the really interesting emails and comments we received along the way, We Ask America’s final regional polling of our Big Ten States came within the margin of error of the final results. Our Senate poll in Missouri failed to pick up the big margin Claire McCaskill would enjoy, and we had the wrong guy on top in the Virginia Senate race–although within the margin of error. And we really nailed the Illinois presidential race–but that’s our home base so we should know the Land of Lincoln fairly well. Following are the final results in those key states rounded to the nearest whole number followed by final poll results in each. We only included states where we polled in the final week, and put Nebraska senate results in as well since we polled that late.  Assume the margin of error in each poll was about ±3%, and remember that rounding to the nearest whole number can produce a result that doesn’t equal 100 percent:

PollCandidatesElection ResultsFinal Poll
ILObama57%57%
Romney41%41%
3rd Party2%2%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
COObama51%50%
Romney47%47%
3rd Party2%3%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
FLObama50%49%
Romney49%50%
3rd Party1%1%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
IAObama52%49%
Romney47%47%
3rd Party1%4%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
MOObama44%42%
Romney54%54%
3rd Party2%4%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
OHObama50%50%
Romney48%46%
3rd Party2%4%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
VAObama51%49%
Romney48%48%
3rd Party1%4%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
WIObama53%52%
Romney46%45%
3rd Party1%3%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
VA - SenateKaine52%50%
Allen48%50%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
WI - SenateBaldwin51%49%
Thompson46%46%
3rd Party3%5%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
MO - SenateMcCaskill55%49%
Akin39%45%
3rd Party6%6%
* * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * * *
NE - SenateFischer58%59%*
Kerrey42%41%*

*Note that we allowed “undecided” as an option in the Nebraska poll at the request of a reader, so the Nebraska Senate results above are extrapolated from those poll participants who chose a candidate. The original results can be found here. We dove into that race since there were some remarkably wrong polls being pumped into the mainstream media and we were the only pollster to get the GOP Primary correct (not that there was a lot of competition).

When we released our final Ohio and Wisconsin polls we received an onslaught of nasty-grams from the tin-foil hat bunch who took those results as proof-positive that we were part of the national polling conspiracy. Oddly, we haven’t heard back from them since the election.

We Ask America plans to go national soon (its easier than changing our name to We Ask Parts of America), and have really enjoyed the comments, critiques, suggestions and rants that you’ve been kind or angry enough to share. Continue to watch for us to run public polls on national and state-specific issues.

But for now…sleep!